NFL Week 6 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
In most cases, when underdogs dominate any particular week in the NFL, as they did in Week 5, I tend to do very well. Well, what I’ve found out this season is that up seems to be down for me and vice versa. As such, I struggled through another rough week and now find myself at 18-28 ATS (39.1%). The strange thing is that I’ve had some horrible luck and even some good luck, note the Titans last week. Hopefully, you’ve also been reading my best bets columns for college football, since I am doing far better on that option. My plan is to just keep grinding. With that in mind, let’s dig into this week’s entire collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and come up with a plan that works for Week 6.
Thursday, October 9, 2025
Philadelphia at New York Giants
Two teams coming off losses this past Sunday meet in New York on Thursday night football. As much as it would be the easy play and go with Philadelphia in a bounce-back night, the team tendencies and heavy betting action on the defending Super Bowl champs have me thinking otherwise.
As of Thursday morning, about 87% of the handle for this game at DraftKings was on the road-favored Eagles. I really fear that in singular games. When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. Plus, in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
In terms of psyche, I have to question which of these teams is actually in better shape right now. Philly has struggled pretty much all season long and was finally exposed in the fourth quarter on Sunday by Denver. The Giants may have lost at New Orleans, but they are young and getting key positive contributions from what looks to be the core of their team going forward, including QB Jaxson Dart. Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 21-23 SU and 28-14-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last 44 such tries.
From a trend standpoint, the New York Giants are 15-26 SU but 24-15 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011, and head coach Brian Daboll boasts a decent 13-20 SU and 19-15 ATS record when coming off an outright loss since 2022. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni is 13-3 SU but 4-11 ATS against poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022. The Eagles are 14-27 ATS (34.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018. Plus, with Philly not clicking offensively and having only scored 19.3 PPG in the last three games vs. the Giants, I find it hard to see them separating.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me the Giants +7 on TNF
Sunday, October 12, 2025
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
What is the NFL doing to the Browns here? Why is there a growing trend of teams playing overseas and then not having the week off? They were already facing a difficult circumstance, as home teams have historically dominated the CLE-PIT AFC North rivalry, going 20-7-1 SU and 19-8-1 ATS since 2012 (including seven straight SU & ATS wins).
You have to wonder how much Cleveland will have in the tank to take on a Steelers team coming off a bye. Talk about a massive scheduling advantage! As it is, Cleveland is 22-40 ATS (35.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015, and Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers is on an 8-1 SU and ATS run as a divisional home favorite. Speaking of Rodgers, the rookie versus veteran QB edge also gets magnified by the circumstances. Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 49-107 SU and 65-86-4 ATS (43%) versus divisional opponents. The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 126-82 SU and 108-89-11 ATS (54.8%).
Getting back to the Steelers coming off their bye week, did you know that they are on an eight-game post-bye week game-winning streak, as well as a five-game ATS winning streak in such games? There are only two or three games a year with such strange scheduling circumstances. I gotta take it.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 5.5 points with Pittsburgh
Arizona at Indianapolis
I make it a habit each week to look for the single most public game on the DraftKings betting splits. In most cases, I have that game on auto-fade. It’s been a reliable strategy historically in the NFL, although I do recall a couple of losses this season on it. I don’t see the struggles continuing since I believe there are a few games set up each week to entrap bettors. Well, the game that is most public this week is the Cardinals-Colts matchup, with 95% of the handle and 79% of the bets in on Indy.
How could you blame bettors? Look what Arizona did last week, losing on a last-second FG to previously winless Tennessee. Let’s look closer at that game, though. Had RB Demercardo not dropped the ball while crossing the goal line, that game would have gone to 28-6 at one point and would have been over.
I’m pretty sure we will see some resolve from the Cardinals this week. After all, Arizona is 32-22 ATS (59.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019, and 31-19 ATS (62%) as an underdog since 2021. Look at QB Kyler Murray’s impressive trend too, 6-3 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine games as a road underdog to the AFC. Perhaps to my own peril, I continue to question Indianapolis’ legitimacy to this point. Too late to fold my hand here, particularly in a spot where the strategies to back the big underdogs have served me well over the years.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Arizona +7 to give the Colts a game on Sunday
Dallas at Carolina
Maybe it’s just me, but it doesn’t seem like the football world is giving enough credit to new head coach Brian Schottenheimer and the energy he’s brought to the Cowboys, and in particular QB Dak Prescott. Even without his biggest weapon in the lineup, or perhaps because WR CeeDee Lamb is out, Prescott is performing like an MVP candidate, and his offense his putting up a league fourth-best 30.2 PPG.
I don’t know about you, but I like my road favorites to be able to score points. With the Cowboys’ offense clicking, I tend to trust some more of the analytics I’m looking at for their game at Carolina on Sunday. Among the things I see: Dallas is 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020, and 23-15 ATS (60.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021. Those angles tend to go directly against the Panthers, as Carolina is 20-29 ATS (40.8%) at home since 2019, and 21-33 ATS (38.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018.
On top of that, favorites are on a 6-1 ATS run in the DAL-CAR series. Admittedly, the Panthers are an improving team, but their two wins are over a pair of teams that are underperforming. Their three losses are against teams that are probably better than expected. I put Dallas in the latter category. Plus, I tend to go against teams looking for back-to-back home upsets.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3 points with Dallas in Carolina
Tennessee at Las Vegas
I am literally flabbergasted by how far below expectations the Raiders have performed since their surprising opening week win at New England. Those two teams have taken completely different trajectories since. Speaking of which, the Titans’ season took a turn this past week when they came up with their first win at Arizona. I blame that decision more on the Cardinals’ stupidity than I do on giving credit to Tennessee.
Even with the win, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show that the Titans are dead last in the NFL with a team equivalent rating of 11.2, essentially 13 points worse than Las Vegas. With all other things considered, the associated line for this game based on that metric shows the Raiders should be favored by 15.9 points. In other words, if the Raiders play at just their average level on a play-by-play basis, they should win this game handily. In looking at this QB matchup too, there are some huge situational edges for Geno Smith over Cam Ward, although I do give some credit to Ward for at least trying to push the ball deep down the field unlike other young QBs. Still, over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 21-53 SU but 30-42-2 ATS (41.7%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
As far as the systems on Smith are concerned, the results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 126-82 SU and 108-89-11 ATS (54.8%). They have also fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 86-72 SU and 85-71-2 ATS (54.5%). In the end, I don’t think Tennessee should be less than a TD road underdog to anyone right now.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 4.5 points with Las Vegas at home
Cincinnati at Green Bay
Is someone in Cincinnati under the impression that the Browns beat the Packers a few weeks ago because of QB Joe Flacco? Are they trying to recreate that magic by bringing Flacco in for an unprecedented first start with the team in Green Bay on Sunday? Well, looking back at that Browns-Packers game, Flacco struggled and seemed to be bothered by the Green Bay pressure all day long. The line he is inheriting in Cincy is not much better, if at all. I don’t expect a lot from the Bengals’ offense here.
That said, there are some pretty strong systems indicating to play against the Packers ATS because they are playing a non-conference team with such a huge line when coming out of their bye week. As such, I am choosing to look at the total in this one, as it fits into another strong post-bye angle: Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-11-1 Under since 2014, 67.6%).
Plus, Green Bay is 15-4 Under the total in the last 19 post-bye week games overall. Despite giving up 40 points to Dallas before the bye, Green Bay is holding opponents 5.5 points below their season averages. That would mean no more than 13 points for Cincy here, which may even be a stretch, as I expect the Packers’ defense to look more like the one that dominated Detroit and Washington at home to start the season.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Green Bay-Cincinnati Under 44.5 at Lambeau
Detroit at Kansas City
Ok, what gives here? The Lions have won four straight games outright and ATS while scoring over 40 PPG, but still go into Sunday Night Football as an underdog to the supposedly struggling Chiefs? Naturally, bettors are going to be all over head coach Dan Campbell’s team in a spot like this, but it feels to me like they are taking the bait, hook, line, and sinker here. In fact, as of Thursday, there were over 80% of bets and 70% of the handle backing Detroit.
They were also betting the Over on the total at a 90% rate, but that’s for a whole other argument. In this case, when the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively.
The Lions’ recent wins also have to be taken with a grain of salt, as they were against four of the league’s worst teams statistically. Their one loss came against the best defense they faced, in an actual tough environment, similar to this. As always, the trends on the Lions have been incredible lately, but let’s not forget that Kansas City’s head coach Andy Reid is on 16-4 SU and 13-6 ATS surge in non-conference games, and QB Patrick Mahomes boasts a 30-11 SU and 25-14 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019.
We also must consider the strange nugget that the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-10 SU but 6-18 ATS (25%) in their last 24 tries against teams not scoring that much. The Chiefs are still kicking themselves after giving up that game on Monday night. I look for them to bounce back here.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll lay the -2.5 points with the Chiefs on SNF
Buffalo at Atlanta
Although it lost last week for me in the Chiefs-Jaguars game, the MNF underdog Under the total trend still holds a warm place in my heart, as it has thrived for me in recent years. In fact, the last 32 of these games have seen Under the total go 22-8-2 (73.3%), games producing just 39.8 PPG. Now, it would seem difficult to want to hope for a lower scoring game in a contest featuring MVP candidate QB Josh Allen, but for those of you who don’t know, Allen is 35-21 Under the total on the road since 2018.
On top of that, head coach Sean McDermott is 27-14 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017. The Bills’ offense struggled last week, and this will be just their second road game of the season after going Under against the Jets in week 2. What kind of offensive effort should we expect from Atlanta in this one? Well, for one, the Falcons are 15-2 to the Under in their last 17 primetime games. Second, they are 12-4-1 Under the total in their last 17 post-bye week home games.
Finally, this game fits into what I have called the Over trap, when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets. I suspect Buffalo rebounds, but what worries me is a potential 24-21 type of contest.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Under 49.5 in the Buffalo-Atlanta MNF contest
Chicago at Washington
Am I missing something here? The line for this second MNF game feels like oddsmakers are trying to sell the thought that Chicago and Washington are two relatively closely matched teams. I don’t buy it. In fact, through my games, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show Chicago at 12.7, 31st in the league, and Washington at 28.7, a full 16 points better. In other words, this is clearly two teams at different levels.
Perhaps, those behind the counter are putting stock in the revenge aspect of this game, as the Bears look for payback for the Hail Mary loss of a year ago. That win for the Commanders advanced their recent record to 12-4 SU and ATS in the last 16 games versus Chicago. The trends also seem to point me towards the hosts here, as Chicago is 29-47 ATS (38.2%) in road/neutral games since 2016 and 30-44-1 ATS (40.5%) as an underdog since 2019. Meanwhile, Washington is 19-6 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018. In that win over the Chargers, Washington seemed to find some very key things, notably, their pass rush, their running game, and a composed QB, Jayden Daniels.
The other angle I suspect people are giving some credit to Chicago here for is that they are coming out of their bye week. However, a key post-bye week betting system suggests playing against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-13 SU and 26-11 ATS since 2019, 70.3%). Also, when you consider that Chicago is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games, and hasn’t won a post-bye week road game since 2013 (0-5 SU and ATS), it all seems to be pointing toward Washington as the play here.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Let’s lay the 4.5 points with Washington over Chicago
For more NFL Week 6 best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
