NFL Week 7 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Coming off my best week of the season on my NFL Best Bets column, having hit six of nine games in Week 6. That said, I was still very frustrated by losing the total in the Packers-Bengals game by a half point. Had the under in that one and a 10-3 halftime score somehow ballooned up to a 27-18 final. That’s how the NFL goes in a lot of cases. I’ve sure caught a few breaks along the way, so I guess I can’t complain too much.
Having boosted my season record to 24-31 (43.6%) – yuck – I hope to keep the momentum going in Week 7, with a schedule highlighted by a solid game to open Sunday in London, a handful of key NFC tilts throughout the afternoon/evening, and a very attractive MNF doubleheader once again. Of course, this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report has enticing betting nuggets for every one of this weekend’s 15 games. After poring through that, this week’s betting splits, my strength ratings, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for Week 7.
Thursday, October 16, 2025
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
This week’s TNF game has a very similar feel to last week’s, pitting a road team that everyone respects versus a home underdog that very few are giving a chance to. It is also a divisional rivalry, which means the stakes are higher. Typically, we see a lot more competitive zest from the underdog in such situations. The Steelers are 4-1 and in a comfortable position in the AFC North right now despite having my 17th-ranked power rating, 15th-ranked effective strength rating, and 21st-ranked effective play-by-play rating. That in itself makes me hesitant about backing them as road chalk.
As it is, Pittsburgh is 32-18 SU but 15-33 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011. Also, QB Aaron Rodgers is 11-13 SU and 7-17 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021, and since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 47-35 SU but 30-51-1 ATS (37%).
At the same time, Cincinnati is 26-18 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog since 2020, and 26-13 ATS when coming off an outright road loss since 2016. Their head coach Zac Taylor boasts a 13-11 SU and 17-7 ATS record vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%. In my opinion, QB Joe Flacco looked more and more comfortable with his playmaking wide receivers last week as the game wore on versus Green Bay. With Pittsburgh just 1-5 SU and ATS in the last six TNF games, I expect Flacco & Co. to be very competitive.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Cincinnati +5.5 at home on TNF to rival Pittsburgh
Sunday, October 19, 2025
Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville
Currently ranked as the #1 team in the NFL in my new Effective Play-by-Play Rating metric, the Rams head into their bye week with a London matchup versus Jacksonville. In many cases, the Jaguars would treat this like somewhat of a home game since they usually play at least one game in London each year. That said, the trends, systems, and ratings show this is a very tough spot for them. Not only are the Rams 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus Jacksonville since 1996, but were are faced again with the long-running trend showing that the Jaguars are 10-50 SU and 16-43 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011.
I mentioned the Rams going into their bye week, consider these two strong systems as good reasoning to expect a strong game from them: 1) Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 29-8-1 SU and 25-12-1 ATS since ’09) and 2) Play on any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 16-2-1 SU and 14-5 ATS since 2008). This is also a pre-bye week game from head coach Liam Coen’s teams, but the Jaguars have lost five straight pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes SU and ATS while being outscored 38-10.8 on average!
The fact that the Rams are #1 in the league in the Effective Play-by-Play Rating also makes this game the biggest variance one on the board in terms of its projection against the actual line, as that metric says LA should be favored by 14.9 points. I’ll trust it in this case.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Give me the Rams -3 to handle Jacksonville in the early Sunday London tilt
Miami at Cleveland
It seems to me that oddsmakers have a little higher view of Cleveland than I do. That said, the fact that the Browns are favored on Sunday for the first time this season could be a very motivating factor for them. For the most part, head coach Kevin Stefanski’s team has been pretty competitive this season, and I feel like QB Dillon Gabriel has been a little better than I expected, particularly in taking care of the ball. Along those lines, did you know that since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-12 SU and 38-14-1 ATS (73.1%). They have also fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 68-52 ATS (56.7%).
Looking back recently at the action between these two teams, favorites are on runs of 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in the MIA-CLE series. In terms of key trends, Miami’s head coach Mike McDaniel is on a 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog. As I perused this year’s effective stats through six weeks, I also found that Cleveland has the #2-ranked NFL defense right now in terms of Effective Yards per Play. A solid defense playing at home with an always enthusiastic crowd. Sounds good.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s put our trust in Cleveland -2.5 to get the job done vs. reeling Miami
New Orleans at Chicago
Did you know that over the last 5+ seasons, Chicago has only been a home favorite of 4.5 points or more four times, going 2-2 ATS in those contests. I know the current oddsmakers and preseason prognosticators were very high on this Bears’ team because of the hiring of head coach Ben Johnson, among other things, but my numbers just aren’t jiving with that optimism. Looking at them from an Effective Play-by-Play Rating metric, I am showing them with a rating of 18.2, better than just three other teams in the league. In fact, they are ranked just behind New Orleans in terms of that. I question how they are over .500 at this point, and I caution anyone expecting them to take care of the Saints handily on Sunday. This is exactly the kind of game that Chicago has historically underwhelmed in. The betting splits action at DraftKings is quite curious to me for this one, too. The number of bets majority loves Chicago at a 62% rate. However, the usually sharper handle number prefers the Saints, 60-40.
I’ve mentioned it on several occasions already this season, but rookie head coaches have some weak spots historically. First, they have not been as good at covering spreads at home – 153-180-10 ATS (45.9%). Second, stringing wins together has been difficult for them. After wins, they’ve gone 47-72-6 ATS (39.5%) since December 2020. The Saints have long been a reliable franchise to back on the road, going 37-24 ATS (60.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018. With the Bears’ defense next-to-last in terms of effective yards per play allowed right now, New Orleans and head coach Kellen Moore have a chance to put up some nice numbers on Sunday.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll take the Saints +4.5 as the underdog in Chicago
Washington at Dallas
Admittedly, I got a little too high on Dallas last week as I felt that QB Dak Prescott would do enough to take care of business versus Carolina. He did do a lot, but the Cowboys’ wretched defense reared its ugly head again. So far through six games, Dallas’ D is allowing opponents 6.8 PPG more than their averages. If that holds this week, Washington is nearly certain to top the 30-point mark. Why wouldn’t it hold too? Looking back at the last 12 home games for the Cowboys, they have allowed at least 20 points in every one for an average of 33.8 PPG.
Looking at this game from a trend perspective, on the Analytics Report, I see three angles that stand out to me. 1) Washington is 27-11 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011. The Commanders played on MNF this past week. 2) Dallas’ Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-29-1 SU and 17-35 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016 and 3) Prescott is on 3-12-1 SU and 5-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog. We also have the situation with rookie head coach Brian Schottenheimer. This is a particularly tough spot for him since rookie head coaches have not been as good at covering spreads at home – 153-180-10 ATS (45.9%), and have gone 113-130-4 ATS (46.5%) versus divisional opponents. The betting splits for this game are also curious, with 65% of the handle not surprisingly getting behind “America’s Team.” In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors were awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%).
And regarding the total, in games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ve got 62% of bettors at DK on that option. I like where they are on that option; I don’t like their side choice.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Washington +2.5 and Over 54.5 in the matchup with Dallas
Green Bay at Arizona
Since looking fantastic in the first two weeks of the season, Green Bay has lost three straight games ATS. To be fair, the Packers have been in pretty difficult line positions in all three of those games, including laying 14 points a week ago. That said, it’s obvious the guys behind the counter still love head coach Matt Lafleur’s team and its 3-1-1 start. That three-game ATS losing skid has actually put the Pack in a good spot, historically speaking, for Sunday at Arizona: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 43-16 SU and 34-23-2 ATS (59.6%) run when favored in the next game as well.
What is it that the experts seem to love about Green Bay? Well, for one, in checking my Effective Yards per Play stats following the Week 6 games, this team ranks #1 in the league in yards allowed, at 4.65 EYPP. They are also 12th in the NFL offensively in that regard, so they are a good, balanced team and coming off their best rushing game of the season. Those effective numbers actually land this game with the Cardinals on my top six Effective Play-by-Play variances game list, at #3. The metric indicates that GB should be a 14.6-point favorite.
Betting against Arizona at home is never that big of a risk since they are 27-33 ATS (45%) at home since 2018. Bettors must be on to this since 65% of them are opting to lay the points with the road team here. No worries on that, as since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). With a tough SNF contest at Pittsburgh on deck, I think Green Bay takes care of business here.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 6.5 points with the Packers in Arizona
Atlanta at San Francisco
After last week’s Monday night win over Buffalo, Atlanta QB Michael Penix proudly proclaimed that the win proved the Falcons were legit. I will say I was having some doubts, but his big game put a lot of that to rest. In my opinion, he looked tremendous in closing out the season last year. Up until Monday, I would have said he was a disappointment. Is he hot enough now to back in another big game, this time at San Francisco? Well, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings say he and his team are, as that metric shows that Atlanta should be favored by 3.1 points in this game, not a 2.5-point underdog.
Being the dog isn’t all bad, since underdogs are on a 7-2 ATS surge in the Falcons-49ers series at San Francisco. The 49ers had a rough one at Tampa Bay. They looked extremely average in that game. It was the first time I really thought all the injuries played a toll. Looking at this week now, overall, momentum has been big for SNF hosts, as home teams coming off a loss in their last games are just 15-22-1 SU and 16-21-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 38. Making matters worse, SNF teams coming off of losses have gone just 13-26 SU and 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in their last 39 tries against teams off a win. In other words, the mojo here is with Atlanta.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll take the Falcons +2.5 to at least threaten the upset at San Francisco
Monday, October 20, 2025
Tampa Bay at Detroit
For as good and prolific as Detroit has played at home, I find it very difficult to go against QB Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay right now, as they seem to keep bringing it regardless of the score or the difficulty of the game. Plus, road teams are 9-2 SU and ATS in the TB-DET series since 2008, including four outright wins in six tries as road underdogs. Furthermore, betting against Detroit at home (25-10-1 ATS surge) or when coming off a loss (11-0 SU and ATS streak) doesn’t seem to be my cup of tea either.
That said, let’s take a look at a rare, very high total play for me. This number is set at 52.5 as I write this on Thursday. Rightfully so, since Detroit has scored 86 points in its two home games, and the Bucs are averaging 27.5 while reaching 20 points in all six contests. Tampa Bay is also on 27-9 Over the total surge as a single-digit road dog. When looking at the most recent MNF games with totals in the 50s, there have been five over the last two seasons. The totals record in those is 4-1 Over with an average point production of 62.8 PPG.
One of the other big things we need to consider for Monday, besides how ravaged the Lions’ secondary is right now, is that head coach Dan Campbell’s team heads into its bye week after this. Detroit is on an 11-3 Over the total surge in pre-bye week home games.
Finally, the DK betting splits for this game show that 74% of bets were backing the Over. In many cases, that is a concern, but in games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! This one looks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Replace the word duck with Over.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Over 52.5 in TB-DET is my play for Monday night
For more NFL Week 7 best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
