NFL Week 7 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Took a 3-4 ATS record last week, a major disappointment considering three of the losses sure could have gone the other way. Starting Thursday, yes, many of us lost with Seattle, despite the Seahawks outgaining Denver 353-168. I tell you what, I’ll fade any team that gets 168 yards of offense without fail. The Tampa Bay loss was particularly frustrating, as the Bucs pretty much dominated three quarters of the game, and only a missed XP by Pittsburgh caused the game to shift into an overtime contest. The other loss was a brutal beat, as bad clock management by the Bills gave the Raiders a shot at a back door, which they entered with a 45-yard bomb in the final minute. Just brutal.
For as good a start as it has been overall, 32-19-2 ATS (62.7%), I realistically feel that I’ve gotten the good breaks on a few games, while getting jobbed on about 6 or 7. I guess that’s how things go in the NFL. Enough lamenting about the past. Let’s look ahead to Week 7, where the matchups look pretty tasty, starting with the New England-Chicago showdown on TNF, and wrapping up with a desperation game between rivals Philly & Dallas on MNF. Hopefully you have noticed the nice improvements we have made to our pro and college football Analytics Reports this season. They have been a great resource for me to lean on in generating my best bets columns. In fact, there was so much good info this week that I actually took all but a few games. Let’s take a look at what I’ve come up with for the NFL weekend.
Thursday, October 22, 2026
New England Patriots (+3) at Chicago Bears
By now I’m sure you’ve heard about how bad the public has been doing this season on primetime standalone games in the NFL this season. Well, for Thursday night, the betting public at DraftKings is backing Chicago pretty heavily. When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 142-163 ATS (46.6%) & 140-162 ATS (46.4%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
To be frank, I feel like this Chicago team is being treated by oddsmakers as if it has accomplished something already. I can see the Rams or the Seahawks or the Chiefs getting overpriced, but I just don’t see the fascination with the Bears yet. In fact, if you’re just considering defensive stats, this is actually one of the bigger mismatches of the week, with my Effective Stats showing Chicago allowing 21.3 PPG and 6.37 yards per play and New England allowing 17.3 PPG and 5.34 YPP. Those types of numbers would suggest the wrong team is favored.
I realize this will probably be a charged atmosphere in Chicago tonight, and the Patriots will have to overcome it, but New England is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Chicago, including a 3-0 SU and ATS streak at Soldier Field. Head coach Mike Vrabel’s team has gotten hot lately, winning its last three, and recently when they heat up, they really heat up: New England is 38-8 SU and 33-13 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016. With QB Drake Maye seemingly finding his game again, we also need to consider systems like this: Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 155-103 SU and 146-108-4 ATS (57.5%) since 2015.
NFL Best Bet: I believe New England +3 will be a dangerous live dog Thursday night
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3)
As I iterated in the intro, Tampa Bay’s collapse against Pittsburgh was not only devastating for me, but more so for the franchise, as it had seemed as if the Bucs were finally turning a corner with QB Jalon Daniels running the show. Now, at 1-5, it looks like they could be heading to a disaster season, and as they head to Carolina for a divisional tilt, there are a few rookie QB systems that will be going against them: 1) The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 149-140 ATS (51.6%) in home games but just 137-152 ATS (47.4%) in road/neutral games. 2) Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 23-56 SU but 34-43-2 ATS (44.2%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer, and 3) Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 58-117 SU and 75-95-4 ATS (44.1%) versus divisional opponents.
I know the recent history of the Panthers tells a story of struggling in the favorite role, but I believe this team should end that, as they can score, and in using my Effective Stats averages, the metrics point to Carolina and red-hot QB Bryce Young putting up around 30.5 points in this game. Plus, for whatever reason, the betting public is getting behind Tampa, with 69% of the handle on that side at DK. Well, in NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 223-271 ATS (45.1%) for -75.1 units. I think the public loses here.
NFL Best Bet: Carolina (-3) makes it three wins in a row by taking down Tampa Bay
Miami Dolphins (+4.5) at NY Jets (2-4)
Some NFL teams realistically shouldn’t be favored over anyone until they consistently prove they can win games. The Jets are the epitome of that, and while they might have a two-win better record than the Dolphins right now, I still cannot trust them, especially with the betting public (69% handle/65% bets) getting behind them at DK. Speaking of which, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 190-213 ATS (47.1%) mark.
Looking closer at the Jets’ worthiness of being favored, teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 62-61-1 SU and 48-73-3 ATS (39.7%) since 2016. New York comes off a disappointing 26-19 loss to the Patriots, a game they covered: Teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-46 SU and 34-62 ATS (35.4%) since the start of the 2019 season (including 20-18 SU but 9-29 ATS (23.7%) in divisional play in that same time frame). This head-to-head matchup has also been great for the Dolphins lately, with Miami at 14-3 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 matchups with the NY Jets. The low total also favors head coach Jeff Hafley’s team: In games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages and totals <= 41, underdogs are 35-31 SU and 44-21-1 ATS (67.7%) since the start of the 2015 season.
NFL Best Bet: I’m going with the Dolphins (+4.5) and not discounting their chance to win
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)
What a difference two weeks can make. After winning at Lambeau Field in dominant fashion and following that with a 45-point outburst versus the Saints, Atlanta has regressed dramatically the last two games, and any thought of this team and offense being truly dangerous is now once again out of the question. Now, in a rather desperate state, they face what might be the league’s best team in San Francisco.
The line is just 2.5, and no wonder bettors have flocked to the 49ers at a 72% rate. Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 146-122 ATS (54.5%) record for +11.8 units. The 49ers are firing on almost all cylinders, particularly QB Brock Purdy. Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 155-103 SU and 146-108-4 ATS (57.5%) since 2015. They are also heading into their bye week after this one, making this franchise trend viable: San Francisco has gone a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS since 1997 as a pre-week road favorite, outscoring opponents 33.4-14.7.
Getting back to the two games the Falcons won earlier in the season, not coincidentally, those games were both off of unusual rest periods. Atlanta is on a 13-28 SU and 11-30 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days), and 23-43 ATS (34.8%) at home since 2018. Can they bounce back? Well, since 2015, when coming off a loss, the retread coach records (Kevin Stefanski) have been an ugly 151-185 ATS (44.9%). I’m afraid Atlanta let its momentum go the last two weeks and won’t be able to get it back.
NFL Best Bet: Give me San Francisco -2.5 to take care of business in Atlanta
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Things have gotten ugly in Indianapolis this week. Not only did the Colts franchise fire their GM after a 2-4 start and a horrible home loss to Tennessee last Sunday, but it seems almost every player on the roster has been treated as trade bait in pursuit of draft capital since. How would you expect that team to respond this week? That’s not even considering they are hitting the road to take on a team that remains underrated despite winning its last 11 games, including last season.
There are two solid betting systems indicating not to challenge the Vikings now: 1) NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 67-16 SU and 52-29-2 ATS (64.2%) in the next game when favored. 2) NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 95-22 SU and 75-42 ATS (64.1%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
Yes, Minnesota remains hot, and seems to be gaining some sync behind new QB Kyler Murray. There is a pretty solid system in play based upon this line for him this week: Since 2009, veteran starting quarterbacks facing home chalk lines of 5.5 points or more have been quite successful, going 39-5 SU & 28-14-2 ATS (66.7%). Most of what I have shared indicates one underlying thought…oddsmakers still aren’t giving head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team enough credit.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Minnesota -6.5 to make it relatively easy versus the Colts
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
By all odds & practice report indications, it would seem that we are not going to see QB Lamar Jackson for the Ravens once again this week in the showdown against Cincinnati. In both momentum and rest, the Bengals also have an advantage, as they come off their bye week and had two weeks to get ready for this big contest: Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 120-50 SU and 98-68-4 ATS since 1999, 59%). When matched up against divisional opponents, the record goes to 32-20 ATS since 2002, 61.5%.
Of course, ever since head coach Zac Taylor took over in Cincy, they have been a very good team against the league’s best: Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor is on a 14-14 SU and 20-8 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%. A closer look at the DK Betting Splits for this game also reveals some interesting things, with heavy backing for the road Bengals. No worries, since over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 73-52 ATS (58.4%) record for +15.8 units and an ROI of +12.6%!
Also, number of bets majority groups have been very sharp at judging games when there is an exact one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 155-123 ATS (55.8%) record for +19.7 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 88-64 ATS for 57.9% and +17.6 units of profit. These teams’ defenses have been relatively even this season; however, the huge offensive edge goes to QB Joe Burrow & Co. with Jackson on the shelf.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Cincinnati -1.5 to win the big one in Baltimore on Sunday
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
I have a certain rule regarding road favorites in the NFL, and backing them. It’s basically a no offense/no backing rule. Well, Denver, despite having won four of its last five games, has not been a good offensive team this season. In fact, if anything, special teams and defense are consistently making up for the fact that this offense ranks 30th in the league in my Effective Yards Per Play category. They are first in yards per point, a stat which, to me, generally underscores which teams get the luckiest breaks to score points.
For this game, they match up against a team that has been perhaps the most inconsistent, capable of winning games in big upset fashion but also capable of getting blown out. I don’t think the Broncos have what it takes to do the latter. In fact, in games matching bad offensive teams (<=19 PPG scored) against bad defensive teams (>=27 PPG Allowed), it isn’t wise to lay points with the bad offense, as they are 62-52 SU but 40-73-1 ATS (35.4%) since 2015.
The Broncos’ win against Seattle last Thursday was particularly ugly, as they were outgained by a 353-168 count in yardage. NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are also bad as non-conference favorites in the next contest, going 5-8 SU and 0-12-1 ATS (0%) in their last 13 tries. Yes, that does say 0-12-1 ATS. Arizona seemed to clear some airwaves by trading away WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and the Cards are 38-29 ATS (56.7%) as an underdog since 2021. They should be a live dog here.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go with Arizona to make things interesting versus Denver
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Total 53.5)
I’ll be honest, I was a little taken aback to see such a lofty total on the Packers-Lions game for Sunday. Not only is the game becoming more and more important in the grand scheme of the NFC North race, but both teams are coming off game(s) playing their best defense of the year. The Lions have been relatively maligned on that side of the ball, but prior to their bye week they allowed just 327 yards to a Cardinals team in catch-up mode and had five sacks. They should also be a bit healthier this week coming out of the bye.
The Packers defense has been solid in each of the last three weeks, allowing just 11.3 PPG in that span. They seem to be clicking now under new DC Jonathan Gannon’s scheme, particularly with pressure. That is something QB Jared Goff of Detroit struggles with, so I expect Detroit to lean offensively on running the football and quick time-draining throws. As a franchise, the post-bye week home game might be the only one that Detroit plays consistently low-scoring games in: The Lions are on 7-2 Under the total in the last nine post-bye week home games.
The Packers’ attack has been all about big play throws down the field recently, so don’t think the Lions won’t prepare for that. In fact, that combined with the return of RB Josh Jacobs leads me to believe we might see a little more conservative approach from head coach Matt LaFleur this week. Finally, the betting splits for this one show heavy leans to the Over on both handle and bets are pointing me the opposite.
First, call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 115-133 (46.4%) for -31.3 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. Second, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units. To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
NFL Best Bet: Give me Under 53.5 in the big Packers-Lions clash
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders’ backdoor cover and overall effort against the Bills was admirable, but it’s clear that they have lost any momentum they once had to start the season, falling victim to what has been a very tough recent schedule. Now, while a 2-4 team coming into town wouldn’t be considered a tough opponent in most cases, unfortunately, Las Vegas is welcoming a desperate Super Bowl title contender that needs a victory more than anything else right now, and I think we will see a very focused effort from the Rams this week. Let’s face it, we can almost see all of the Rams fans in the stands at Allegiant Stadium already.
I have three separate solid betting systems showing the Rams are the team to back here: 1) NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 33-20-2 ATS (62.3%) in their last 55 games versus non-conference foes. 2) Teams having a 10% win percentage or higher than their opponent but are playing as home underdogs are right to be priced this way, as they are 16-53 SU and 20-47-2 ATS (29.9%) since the start of the 2017 season. 3) Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) record since 2015.
Looking closer at the AFC vs. NFC side of things, one thing to be concerned about with Raiders QB Kirk Cousins is that since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 19-36 SU and 16-38-1 ATS (29.6%). Add to all of this that the LA Rams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven matchups with the Raiders, and we have the makings for a solid and much-needed result for head coach Sean McVay’s team.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go Rams -3.5 at Las Vegas
Monday, October 26, 2026
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Total 44.5)
Since its 34-30 win over Houston a few weeks ago, the Dallas offense has looked bewildered, and a lot of it comes down to not balancing itself enough with the run. Last week in particular, Green Bay bombarded QB Dak Prescott with pressure, with little to no respect for the running game. I would figure, and expect, that we will see a little different mode of attack here against a weakened Philly team on Monday night. And while Dallas’ offensive struggles would tend to lead me to the opposite home dog, I am a bit leery of Dallas’ improved defensive effort last week and the fact that the Eagles offense is a nightmare right now.
The Cowboys could score 20 points here and have no problem covering. Instead, I am going to look at the Under for the rivalry game. As it is, home dogs on MNF usually trend Under anyway: NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 19-21 SU but 22-17-1 ATS (56.4%) dating back to September 2021. The last 38 of these games have seen Under the total go 25-11-2 (69.4%) as well, games producing just 41.1 PPG. Philly has been an elite Under team on MNF lately too, 15-3-1 Under in the last 19. On top of that, Philadelphia’s HC Nick Sirianni is 17-5 Under the total in the last 22 games when coming off an outright loss. With an interesting 40% bets/64% handle on the Under at DK as of Thursday afternoon, it would seem the smart money is looking for a defensive slugfest here.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go Under 44.5 in Dallas-Philadelphia
For more NFL Week 7 best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
SPONSORED
SCOTT RICKENBACH from Doc’s Sports is on fire in football (NFL + CFB) and in the MLB playoffs! He has won 16 of 18 MLB highest-rated (7*/8*) picks for an 89% win rate. His MLB is +19,285 since joining Doc’s in August of 2025 (DOCUMENTED HERE), including +14,650 in 2026!
His hot MLB Run is 13-2 and +5,065 in profit (DOCUMENTED HERE).
Rickenbach won another big play (7*) on Sunday (Packers 23-13) as part of a 3-0 NFL SWEEP! His Football is 39-26 and +4,340 this season (DOCUMENTED HERE)
Get your free trial with him at docsports.com
