NFL Week 8 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Coming off my best week of the season in Week 6 and then winning three of my first four games in Week 7, I thought I had finally turned the corner on my NFL Best Bets for the season. The rest of my games failed to cooperate, however, and I was left for another 4-5 ATS week. It’s been frustrating to say the least, as I feel like I am continually spinning my wheels. I feel like the information I’m relying on remains solid, but my deductive reasoning and perhaps built-in biases are clouding my end-all judgments. I am sitting at 28-36 ATS (43.8%). The bad thing is my losing performance last week actually bumped up my season winning percentage.
As we head into Week 8, I feel compelled to remind readers of what happened to me last year in Weeks 8 & 9, when I posted back-to-back 1-8 records, the worst two-week stretch of my betting life. Prior to that ugly stretch, I was enjoying a tremendous season. It also ended very well, with my eventual 94-87-3 record covering for those two brutal weeks. Hopefully, Weeks 8 and 9 tell an opposite story this year, so let’s get right into it. After poring through this week’s Analytics Report, betting splits, my strength ratings, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for Week 8.
Thursday, October 23, 2025
Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers
It’s been a tale of two different seasons thus far for the Chargers, who started 3-0 with three divisional wins only to go just 1-3 in their next four games. What should we expect to see tonight from them? Well, the good news is that their first two wins over KC and Las Vegas were weeknight standalone games, breaks from the routine, if you will.
The other good news is that they are at home and favored in the sweet spot of head coach Jim Harbaugh, who is 33-11 SU and 29-13 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011. With his team off a brutal 38-24 loss to Indianapolis, we will also be testing a nice rebound trend from LA QB Justin Herbert, who is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021.
I indicated earlier that I felt like we’ve seen two different Chargers teams; the current one has lost four straight games against the spread. As such, they will be backed by two separate streak betting systems for TNF: 1) NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 44-17 SU and 34-25-2 ATS (57.6%) run when favored in the next game as well. And 2) NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 22-26 SU but 28-18-2 ATS (60.9%) in their last 48 games versus non-conference foes.
Looking at the Vikings right now, they seem to be a very limited team on both sides of the ball. I don’t think the floor is that low, but I also feel like the ceiling is not high. What you see is what you get from QB Carson Wentz. Speaking of which, veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 27-42 SU and 27-41-1 ATS (39.7%) in their last 69 such tries for their new teams. The NFC-AFC matchup is also in play for him, as since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-29 SU and 15-32 ATS (31.9%). Harbaugh’s team starts a stretch of five very winnable games here tonight, and they are much more capable than they’ve shown in recent weeks.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Give me LA Chargers -3.5 to handle Minnesota on TNF
Sunday, October 26, 2025
New York Jets at Cincinnati
Just two weeks ago, Cincinnati played as a 14-point underdog at Green Bay. The Bengals lost that game and then followed it up with a 2-point home upset win over a divisional rival. Now we’re supposed to believe that they are worthy of laying big numbers to teams in this league? I’m not buying it.
For as much as QB Joe Flacco seems to have turned things around for Cincy, I still feel the last two opponents were horribly unprepared for how deliberate he was going to be in running the offense. When I say deliberate, I mean force-feeding the ball to WRs Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins. I expect the winless Jets to have a much better plan in place with defensive guru head coach Aaron Glenn prepping his team.
My Effective Play-by-play Ratings underscore just how bad the Bengals have been sans the Pittsburgh win, as that metric indicates the Jets could actually be favored here by 2.7 points if lines were set by play-by-play data, not power ratings. From a trend standpoint, there isn’t much you’re going to find from the Jets as reason to back them, but there is one good spot they do fall into this week. That is because they are heading into their bye week next. The Jets are on an 8-3 ATS run in pre-bye week road games, and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as pre-bye week underdogs.
Plus, with QB Justin Fields out and backup Tyrod Taylor in, I believe this team has a chance to build some positive momentum in the second half. Getting back to Flacco, in their last 63 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 30-33 SU and 24-38-1 ATS (38.7%) since 2021. I expect a different-looking offense than last week, especially since 80% of bets on DraftKings are on the Bengals.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll take my chances with the Jets +6.5 at Cincinnati
Buffalo at Carolina
Buffalo has had two weeks to stew on the ugly showing it had versus Atlanta prior to its bye week. The offense got off to a solid start that Monday night, but fizzled as QB Josh Allen really struggled. Those of us who know Allen’s history know he is 36-21 Under the total on the road since 2018. That coincides nicely for this game with another trend from head coach Sean McDermott, who is 28-14 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017.
The bye week for Buffalo also comes into play for this contest on the total, as the Analytics Reports tells us to play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-20-1 since 2021, 66.7), especially when a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 33-16-1 Under since 1992, 67.3%).
Specifically, regarding the Bills, they are on a 5-0 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 14.4 PPG. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carolina settle in right around that 14.4 PPG mark with backup QB Andy Dalton likely in for Bryce Young. The offense has been held under 14 points in three of seven games, very inconsistent.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll back Under the total of 46.5 in Buffalo-Carolina
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Since the Giants’ unexpected 34-17 win over Philadelphia, there will be just 17 days between that and the kickoff of the rematch contest in Philly. In other words, the wound is still fresh for the Eagles. Revenge could come quickly since teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record of 20% or better outright have gone 45-16 SU and 38-23 ATS (62.3%) in the rematch contest.
Since that recent meeting, each team has only played once, but the results of those games were dramatically different. The Giants lost an absolutely devastating heartbreaker in Denver, 33-32, collapsing in the fourth quarter. The Eagles had perhaps their best offensive showing of the year in Minnesota, winning 28-22 behind 7.4 yards per play. The turn of events could have a big impact on what happens this week, especially for a young team like New York, led by a rookie QB in Jaxson Dart.
Let’s look at a few of the systems affecting Dart this week: 1) Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 23 games, going 23-125 SU and 60-84-4 ATS (41.7%). 2) Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 50-108 SU and 66-87-4 ATS (43.1%) versus divisional opponents. And 3) In their last 172 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 57-119 SU and 79-94-2 ATS (45.7%).
We also have a nice trend spot in that the Eagles head to their bye after this one. A long-running, big-time system says to play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 54-25-1 ATS since ‘13, 68.4%). Similarly, play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their BYE week. (Record: 78-6-1 SU and 56-27-2 ATS since 2002, 67.5%). Specifically, with the Eagles, Philadelphia is on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak in pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes, outscoring them 24.7-13 on average.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll back Philadelphia -7.5 to take care of the Giants on Sunday
Cleveland at New England
The Patriots have become the best thing since sliced bread, according to fans, analysts, and now perhaps oddsmakers as well. The Patriots will play this week as TD+ favorites for the first time since an October 2022 33-14 loss at home to Chicago. Do I expect a similar outcome here? Well, no, but I think we do need to consider whether or not head coach Mike Vrabel’s team has earned this distinction, especially since they are facing the best defensive team in the NFL, according to my Effective Yards per Play stats. I cited these last week, when Cleveland was #2, as a reason to back the Browns versus Miami. They responded in dominant fashion.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski’s team is much better than those setting the numbers are giving them credit for. Speaking of Vrabel, this particular line/situational spot fits into a couple of nice fade systems for “retread” head coaches. First, retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 95-68 SU but just 62-90-11 ATS, for 40.8%! Second, retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises. Since 2015, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 105-138 ATS (43.2%).
Almost as interesting, bettors have fallen for the Patriots now. In looking at the DK betting splits for this contest as of Thursday, we find 83% of the handle on that side of the ledger. Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it. I’ll do that here.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Cleveland +7 to give New England a competitive game
Dallas at Denver
I am a big proponent of avoiding hopping on the bandwagon of very public NFL teams, as I feel oddsmakers set lines to trap bettors into backing them. Currently, Dallas, “America’s Team,” would have to fall into the realm, as the Cowboys have been a scoring machine, putting up 31.7 PPG in going 3-3-1. That doesn’t tend to make them a good play on the road, though, as the common belief is that defense travels better than offense.
Look at the numbers so far this season. Dallas has scored 41.3 PPG in three home games, but 24.5 PPG in four road contests. Now, that latter figure is still a respectable number, but Denver will be the best-scoring defense they have faced this season. The Broncos have somewhat quietly won four straight games, setting up a nice system play for this one: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games are 90-22 SU and 70-42 ATS (62.5%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3-points or more.
By now, readers of the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports should know that Dallas QB Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-29-1 SU and 17-35 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016, and that he is on a 3-12-1 SU and 5-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog. Continuing along those lines, rookie head coach Brian Schottenheimer squares off against this trend after last week’s rout of Washington: Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, going 48-72-6 ATS (40%) since December 2020.
Finally, I mentioned before that Dallas was becoming a very public team, specifically at DraftKings, where they accounted for 73% of the handle for this one as of Thursday. Well, when the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%).
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll go against the public in this one and back Denver -3.5
Green Bay at Pittsburgh
Well, after getting huge publicity in recent weeks for their failures in these primetime games, favorites turned it around last weekend, winning and covering the Sunday night game and both MNF contests. Should we expect that run to continue? Well, yes, as I backed the Chargers on TNF and now will be getting behind the Packers on Sunday night.
There are some SNF reasons why Pittsburgh could struggle this week versus Green Bay. 1) In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 21-30-2 ATS (41.2%) in the last 53. 2) SNF teams coming off losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-26 SU and 15-25 ATS (37.5%) in their last 40 tries against teams off a win. And 3) Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-22-1 SU and 17-21-1 ATS (44.7%) in their last 39.
Is there any extra motivation for the Packers in taking on former star QB Aaron Rodgers for the first time? Maybe, but the media will make a bigger story of that than it is. The relationship between Rodgers and the Packers is friendly. Speaking of Rodgers and the matchup, since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-29 SU and 15-32 ATS (31.9%).
Green Bay hasn’t looked sharp since its two season-opening wins, but I feel like oddsmakers have put a ton of pressure on them with unrealistic lines. They are currently my #1 team in the NFL in my Bettors’ Ratings, a metric that gauges how the market views teams. This week’s line is priced to a point where bettors are actually getting behind the Steelers at DK.
And the Packers are the beneficiaries of a couple of nice systems because of their recent ATS struggles: First, NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 44-17 SU and 34-25-2 ATS (57.6%) run when favored in the next game as well. Second, NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 22-26 SU but 28-18-2 ATS (60.9%) in their last 48 games versus non-conference foes. Above all that, my Effective Play-by-Play ratings show just how much better Green Bay is than Pittsburgh on a play-by-play basis, as that metric shows Green Bay should be favored by 8.7 points, not just 3.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Green Bay to take care of business on Sunday night in Pittsburgh
Monday, October 27, 2025
Washington at Kansas City
Taking the QB Jayden Daniels injury out of the equation, just a few weeks ago, my power ratings indicate that the line for this game would have been a maximum Kansas City by 3.5 points. Now, granted, I am finally convinced that the 2025 Commanders are not the same as the 2024 version, but even so, a swing of about 9 points in just a few weeks seems like overkill.
And let’s face it, one of the reasons that head coach Dan Quinn’s team this season is not up to par is because Daniels looks like a shell of his rookie self. In fact, I could argue that this team looks as good or better on offense with backup QB Marcus Mariota under center.
Naturally, this MNF game at Arrowhead is a very tough spot for Washington. However, it falls into what has been a weak line spot for the Chiefs, since QB Patrick Mahomes is 35-2 SU but 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) in his last 37 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. Plus, with head coach Andy Reid’s team coming off the 31-0 win over Las Vegas, both a trend and system will come into play: 1) Kansas City is 21-11 SU but 7-23 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020. 2) Teams off a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 16-21 SU and 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) in their last 37 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
Not only that, but most of the MNF data we utilize each week seems to go against KC. Laying 7 points or more has long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 48-15 SU but just 23-38-2 ATS (37.7%) since 2012. In addition, in MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 29-30 SU but 18-39-2 ATS (31.6%) in the last 59. The money is all over KC for this one, and for seemingly good reason, as they are the hot team nowadays. But we’ve seen this team lay eggs in seemingly easy spots a lot lately.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll back the Commanders as the huge 12.5-point dog at KC
For more NFL Week 8 best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
