NFL Week 9 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Had a decent showing in NFL Week 8, posting a 5-3 ATS mark in my eight best bets. I wish it had ended better, as I regretted my Monday night pick about a quarter in after Washington wasted three solid drives and wound up with zero points. As a 12.5-point dog, the Commanders could have virtually locked up a point spread cover with 10 points there. In any case, I’ll move on to Week 9 with a season record of 33-39 ATS (45.8%), as I continue my quest to chase down .500 and above. Even that would be a very low mark for me compared to recent years, but getting out of a deep hole is never easy. If you recall, a year ago, I was 1-8 ATS in both Weeks 8 and 9, so I’ve already improved greatly on that drought in 2025. After poring through this week’s Analytics Report, betting splits, my strength ratings, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of plays for Week 9.
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Baltimore at Miami
With all of the excitement and anticipation regarding QB Lamar Jackson’s return to the field for the Ravens on Thursday night, I don’t think many bettors have thought about how long it might take for the offense to “click” again. I don’t think it will be instantaneous. Even in last week’s 30-point outburst, Baltimore only put up 355 yards and 6.0 yards per play. That’s a decent amount, but the Bears’ defense yields an effective 6.39 per play on the season, so in essence, it was a below-average performance. Prior to that, the offense scored a total of 13 points in the two other games without Jackson.
That said, the defensive effort has picked up dramatically over the last couple of weeks, as they held the Bears and Rams to 16.5 PPG. That’s more than a TD below those teams’ effective scoring averages. What am I getting at here? Well, with this lofty Thursday night total of 51.5, I think we need to consider an Under. After all, there have been 33 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-11 rate (66.7%).
Plus, in situations where there has been a home underdog on TNF lately, in terms of totals, 18 of the last 28 (64.3%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under. Finally, in looking at the DraftKings Betting Splits for this game, 61% of the bets as of Thursday morning were on the lower side of the total. When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). I expect both of these teams to run the ball often this evening, too.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s go with an Under 51.5 on TNF
Sunday, November 2, 2025
Chicago at Cincinnati
Clearly, the Bengals’ offense has found something since halftime of their game a few weeks ago against Green Bay. Since then, they have put up 86 points in five halves of football, or in other words, a pace of about 34.4 PPG. Now, for Week 9, they are placed as an underdog to one of the worst defenses in the league in Chicago, which is allowing 6.39 effective yards per play, better than only Dallas in the NFL ranks.
As of this writing, supposedly QB Joe Flacco was a 50/50 shot for Cincinnati on Sunday, and while I hope he goes, I would be willing to back them at any price it moves to if we see Jake Browning instead. In recent action between these teams, underdogs are 4-0 SU and ATS in the CHI-CIN series at Cincinnati since 1995.
Chicago is also just 24-36-1 ATS (40%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019, and 30-48 ATS (38.5%) in road/neutral games since 2016. We also have a nice situation here in that head coach Zac Taylor’s team heads into its bye week after this one. Two solid systems are backing them in this scenario: 1) Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 75-39-2 ATS since 2010, 65.8%) and 2) Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 36-23-3 ATS since 2015, 61%). As it is, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 pre-bye week games at home.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: I think Cincinnati should be a very live +3 point home dog to Chicago
Denver at Houston
For as much as Denver and Houston have improved offensively in recent weeks, you have to wonder why we are looking at a total of 39.5 for their showdown on Sunday. In their last four games, Denver has averaged 27.8 PPG, and Houston has put up 28.8 PPG. However, it is these teams’ defensive numbers that really stand out to me, and as such, I believe we are going to be looking at a game on Sunday in which TDs are hard to come by. In fact, there are only four teams right now in the NFL that are holding their opponents more than 5.0 points below their averages. These are two of them, with the Texans #1 at -7.9 and the Broncos #4 at -5.1.
That doesn’t even touch on the recent history of this matchup, where Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Broncos-Texans series. Recent team tendencies also send me that way on the total as Denver is 19-6 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017, and Houston’s head coach DeMeco Ryans is on 11-1 Under the total streak as a home favorite. Then, of course, we have a situation where 75% of the bets in at DraftKings are on the Over. That can’t be a good sign, especially with Denver coming off back-to-back games where the Broncos’ games produced 66.5 PPG. Feels like a trap.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Give me Under 39.5 in Denver-Houston
Jacksonville at Las Vegas
There is not a single game on the NFL board this week that was mentioned more than the Jacksonville-Las Vegas contest on the VSiN Analytics Report. Naturally, with so many nuggets for one contest, things will tend to conflict. However, as I analyze the info, I find myself seeing about 2/3 of it favoring the Raiders, and the more foundational things going that way as well. Let me share with you some of my favorite tidbits I took in.
First, a system indicating how teams that were just shut out bounce back. If you recall, before their bye week, the Raiders were walloped 31-0 at KC. Anyway, teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounceback teams in the next outing, going 29-36 SU but 39-24-2 ATS (61.9%) since 2012. Similarly, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 22-37 SU but 38-21 ATS (64.4%) over the last decade-plus.
I do like that Las Vegas was off last week and should be a bit healthier this week, particularly with the return of TE Brock Bowers, who gives the offense an entirely different look. Speaking of being off last week, Jacksonville is also off its bye week after getting clobbered 35-7 by the Rams overseas. This post-bye week angle says to play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-14 SU and 26-12 ATS since 2019, 68.4%).
The Jaguars lost their Week 6 and 7 games SU and ATS, scoring just 19 points in all. That doesn’t make them a good road favorite candidate. Plus, the trend falls into a pattern recently by rookie head coaches like Liam Coen. In games #5-#12 of their first seasons, rookie head coaches have gone 156-171-11 ATS (47.7%). Finally, upon reviewing my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, the metric indicates that Las Vegas should be favored by 1.2 points.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: I expect a much better effort from Las Vegas (+3) after the bye week
New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams
Going back to ’92, the Rams have only been a home favorite of -14 or higher three times. In other words, they are in unfamiliar territory here against the Saints. Does that mean they can’t get it done against a New Orleans team turning to rookie QB Tyler Shough for his first career start? Not necessarily, but to me, it looks like a pretty big overpricing. By the way, those three huge home lines were in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and head coach Sean McVay’s team went 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in those contests.
What makes me leery of backing this particular big home favorite? For one, I don’t think this Saints team is the doormat that, let’s say, Tennessee or the Jets might be. In fact, right now, their defense is allowing just 5.39 effective yards per play, ninth best in the NFL. Second, they are 37-25 ATS (59.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018.
For this week, they will be backed by not one, not two, but three different streak betting systems. You can see all three on the Analytics Report, but my favorite of them is this one: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-79 SU but 61-31 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006. LA is off a bye week, and McVay is 9-6 SU but 5-9 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022. He is also just 9-15 SU and 6-16-2 ATS in his last 24 November games. Recent NFL history says to play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 19-8-1 ATS since 2014, 70.4%).
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: It looks hard to stomach, but the line value is with the Saints +14
Kansas City at Buffalo
For all of you out there that were in a happy place watching the Chiefs struggle terribly out of the game in losing their first two games, watching them since has to be like a nightmare, as head coach Andy Reid’s team has turned it around big-time, and by all accounts, appears to be the best team in the NFL once again. When they get hot, they tend to stay hot, as Kansas City is 27-8 SU and 24-11 ATS when riding a three-game or more ATS winning streak since 2014.
We all know how well QB Patrick Mahomes plays against the league’s best foes, as he is 31-11 SU and 26-14 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019. The interesting thing is that as they head into their bye week, the Chiefs aren’t even in a great playoff position. If the season ended today, they would be the #7 seed in the AFC, and only because Jacksonville, who they lost to, has played one fewer game. In other words, they have a ton of motivation to keep this thing rolling.
The schedule out of the bye week is tough, with teams like the Broncos, Colts, Cowboys, Texans, and Chargers on the horizon. For the record, Kansas City has won its last six pre-bye week games, going 5-1 ATS. Buffalo is coming off the rout of Carolina but has been very inconsistent this year. Most people think of this team as a Super Bowl contender again. If so, why are the Bills a 2.5-point home dog to a team they share the same record with? Doesn’t this raise some eyebrows? Also, why did DraftKings move the line from -1.5 to -2.5 despite over 90% of the early action on the hosts? Hmmm…
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Give me Kansas City (-2.5) on the road at Buffalo
Seattle at Washington
The Sunday night battle looks like it could be a good one on paper, but digging deeper reveals some tidbits that lead me to believe that we could see another comfortable win for the much superior road team, kind of like what we witnessed with Green Bay-Pittsburgh last week. First off, my effective Play-by-Play Ratings tell the story of two very different teams. Seattle is currently my top team in that metric, and Washington is #14. The equivalent projected line using that metric indicates that Seattle should be favored by 11.3 points.
With the Commanders coming off the 28-7 MNF loss at Arrowhead, there are a few different angles to consider, besides the fact that something is obviously amiss this season after last year’s NFL title game appearance. Washington is 21-36 ATS (36.8%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019. Head coach Dan Quinn is 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016.
When considering the Sunday night football aspect, SNF home teams coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-23-1 SU and 17-22-1 ATS (43.6%) in their last 40. On top of that, Washington is just 14-25 and 13-25-1 ATS in primetime since 2013. The Seahawks had an impressive win over Houston prior to their bye week, and this system indicates they should be a strong play for Sunday: Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 115-47 SU and 95-63-4 ATS since 1999, 60.1%). Head coach Mike Macdonald’s team is a lot better than folks are giving them credit for. They have a nice chance to prove it on Sunday night.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Give me Seattle -3 on SNF
Monday, November 3, 2025
Arizona at Dallas
This week’s MNF game is a candidate for the most curious line setup on the board for Week 9. Host Dallas, who is 3-4-1, including 2-0-1 at home while scoring 41.3 PPG, is just a 2.5-point favorite over 2-5 Arizona. Making it even more strange, the line for the game opened at Cowboys -3, only to be lowered to 2.5 despite 89% of the handle at DK backing them. What gives? Perhaps it’s the fact that won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 46-40 SU but just 33-51-2 ATS (39.3%) in the last 86 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. Or it’s that Arizona is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight games with non-divisional conference foe Dallas. Or that Arizona is 33-22 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2019 and 33-19 ATS (63.5%) as an underdog since 2021.
There are a couple of noteworthy betting systems on the Analytics Report that catch my eye for this one, too. This first streak angle is rare but suggests the struggling Cardinals will be very competitive here: NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football after losing at least their last five games outright have gone 6-14 SU but 15-5 ATS (75%) in their last 20 tries. This next one also deals with the MNF angle and goes against Dallas as it heads into its bye week: Play against any home team in the +4.5 to -4.5 line range heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS since 1996, 78.9%). This feels like a classic NFL line setup.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll back Arizona +2.5 to come up big on Monday night
For more NFL Week 9 best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
