NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I finished the regular season by going 5-6 ATS in 11 games, losing a tough one with the Buccaneers on Saturday and beating the final line in the Packers-Vikings game, but not the one I picked it at. It’s been a frustratingly average season for me in both college and pro football, as I have essentially been almost exactly .500 in both. I’m looking to make a push in the playoffs and finish strong. I always feel like the postseason in the NFL is the best chance to make a surge, since the motivations are equal, the rosters are typically as intact as they’ve been, and there are six or fewer games to really dig into on each given weekend.
That said, I did offer up a bunch of articles this week to get the playoff analysis started. Those included my annual shared traits piece for pinpointing the potential champion, an overall systems and trends piece for betting the entire postseason, a full Wild Card trends specific piece, and, of course, the VSiN Analytics Report for this weekend’s six games. After poring through all of that data, plus the matchup info on VSiN.com, I wrap it up with my side and totals selections for each of the six games this weekend. Good luck and enjoy the postseason action!
Saturday, January 3, 2026
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina
This week, while digging through the Wild Card and recent playoff history, I came across a few items indicating how good home underdogs have been in recent years. In most cases, they are dangerous, underpriced division winners. They are motivated by the thought of being disrespected at home in the postseason. Do I think the Panthers have a chance of upsetting the Rams to open the Wild Card round? Not a chance. This is an ideal matchup for the Rams, and the fact that they lost in Carolina six weeks ago will serve as a big motivating factor.
The Rams have been one of the best teams in the league in road rematches lately, going 11-5 SU and 15-1 ATS in the last 16. That results also benefits LA on two great betting systems: 1) Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 48-17 SU and 41-24 ATS (63.1%) in the rematch contest 2) Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 22-9 SU and 22-10 ATS (68.8%) in their last 32 revenge tries.
The Rams have a number of other things going for them. First, they are 17-8 SU and 18-6 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018. Second, Carolina is on a 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5. If you saw my Shared Traits for potential NFL champs piece from earlier in the week, you would have seen just how elite the Rams are. They were the only team to get a perfect score of 27 on that study. Carolina is anything but championship-level, and home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 21-26 SU and 15-30-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2002.
This is also QB Bryce Young’s first postseason contest, and quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 10-27 SU and 14-22-1 ATS (38.9%) since 2006. Regarding the total, I mentioned the short rest before for LA. Well, QB Matthew Stafford is 23-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012. Plus, with this line in double-digits, you should know that recent Wild Card games not expected to be as competitive, or those with lines of -7 or higher, have gone 8-4 Over in the last 12. I think head coach Sean McVay’s team scores a lot, Carolina scores some, but not nearly enough. Let’s say 35-17 Rams.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: I’ll go LA Rams -10.5 and OVER 45.5 in the early Saturday WC tilt
Green Bay (-1.5) at Chicago
I’ll preface this by indicating yes, I am well-known to be a Packers’ owner and fan, one who is frustrated with the team’s recent swoon, but one who tries to look at any wager I make from a foundational standpoint. In that regard, I have to state that I can’t remember an NFL team in recent years that went into the playoffs with more theoretical hurdles to overcome than Chicago in terms of playoff resume.
The Bears have a rookie head coach, a first-time playoff QB, a questionable defense, have benefitted tremendously from turnover luck all season, and to top it all off, are facing their biggest rival, a team that has owned them in recent years, a team they also stole a game from just two weeks ago after being dominated for 59 of 60 minutes. all of these traits are things that have doomed losing playoff teams in recent years. The question is, can a relatively healthy now Packers’ team flip the switch back on in time to take advantage?
Let’s dig into some of what I just detailed about the game. First, Chicago’s QB Caleb Williams, as quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 10-27 SU and 14-22-1 ATS (38.9%) since 2006. Second, Chicago’s pass defense, allowing 7.2 yards per attempt, 28th in the NFL. Well, home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) since 2012. Head coach Matt LaFleur’s team happens to be sixth in the NFL in offensive yards per pass attempt, averaging 7.9. Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since 2004.
Next, on the Bears’ forcing the most turnovers in football this year…teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 16-26 ATS (38.1%) skid since 2017 in Wild Card playoff games. And on the fierce nature of this rivalry, in the last 28 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone just 11-17 ATS (39.3%). You should also know that favorites are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the GB-CHI divisional rivalry.
Finally, looking at how oddsmakers have priced this game, it almost feels like they expect a Green Bay win and are encouraging all the Bears’ backing they can get. With Green Bay a -1.5 point favorite, you should know that home teams that won one or two games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3-points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 13-20 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in their last 33 playoff tries.
Plus, with 63% of the money on Chicago and the Packers still flipping from dogs to favorites, in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). There’s some winter weather expected for this game, so I think it will keep things tight and lower scoring. Let’s call it GB 20, CHI 16
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Give me Green Bay -1.5 and UNDER 44.5 at Chicago
Sunday, January 10, 2026
Buffalo (-1.5) at Jacksonville
If there was one game this weekend in which I found myself flip-flopping more than others, it was this Buffalo-Jacksonville contest on Sunday. It felt like I was digging for any reason I could to back the Jaguars, and they might deserve my backing after the way they ended the season, but I just can’t give it to them. This line-total setup by oddsmakers has me believing that they know this game is going to come down to QB Josh Allen. With Buffalo as -1.5-point favorites and a total of 51.5, they are essentially conceding that the Bills will score a lot here.
First off, going back to 2019, in high-totaled games of 49 or higher, Jacksonville is just 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS. That is downright ugly. Second, the line/total combo suggests that Buffalo is expected to get 26.5 points here. This week, I shared that the magic point total for road teams in Wild Card games is 20 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the Wild Card round have lost 15 straight games outright and are 6-50 SU and 7-49 ATS (12.5%) since 2002. Road teams reaching that 20-point total were 38-22 SU and 45-13-2 ATS (77.6%) in that same span.
This game also has a few of the playoff betting systems that were in play for the Bears-Packers contest: 1) Home teams that won one or two games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3-points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 13-20 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in their last 33 playoff tries. 2) Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since 2004. And 3) Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 14-31 SU and 17-28 ATS (37.8%) over the last 13 seasons and 29-49-1 ATS (37.2%) since 2004.
None of this touches on the trend that Buffalo’s head coach Sean McDermott boasts a 16-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3 points since 2017. All of this said, I don’t think this is going to be a shootout, as both teams are in the top five in the NFL in defensive yards per pass attempt, an important stat. We know that QB Josh Allen is 39-24 Under the total on the road since 2018. We also learned this week that dating back to 2013, and after a pair of Unders on totals a year ago, that option on totals in the #3-#6 matchup is 20-5-1 (80%).
Of course, the common pattern in the last 14 years of Wild Card games has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under the total has a record of 24-8-2 (75%), and that in Wild Card games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a run of 22-11-1 (66.7%). My speculative guess is Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 20.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: I’ll grab Buffalo -1.5 and Under 51.5 for Sunday’s first Wild Card game
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-5.5)
I led my Wild Card-specific trend piece off with this nugget: The outright winner owns a point spread record of 69-10-1 ATS (87.3%) in the last 80 Wild Card playoff games! Win-no covers are somewhat rare, so regardless of the point spread, if you can’t see the team you’re betting on winning the game, you’re better off not trying to sneak a cover in. That said, if there is one game this week in which I feel the winning team may “sneak by” without covering, it is this one in Philly.
Why do I say that? Well, Philadelphia’s recent home playoff success will be hard to overcome, undoubtedly. However, I do believe San Francisco boasts the traits of a team capable of competing here, and the line seems a bit high to me. In fact, my power ratings indicate this line should be Philly -3.1, not -5.5. The game feels similar to last year’s Wild Card home game for the Eagles in which they beat Green Bay 22-10, except for the fact that the Packers were injury-riddled and reeling offensively at the time.
San Francisco has been great on offense for the last half-season up until last week, when they faced the Seahawks without some key players. Those guys figure to be back this week, so the fact that the 49ers averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season should be key since road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 30-36 SU but 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since 2004. Also, from that 13-3 loss, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 23-42 SU but 42-23 ATS (64.6%) over the last decade-plus.
At the same time, the Eagles’ offense has rather publicly not been firing since October, held to 21 points or less in seven of the last nine contests. If head coach Nick Sirianni’s team doesn’t hit 21, you should know that only three home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a Wild Card playoff game have won in the last 23 years, going 3-37 SU and 3-38-1 ATS (7.3%)! Let’s not forget that, including the lone road outright win last year, Sunday NFC road teams have been terrific, going 16-11 SU and 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) in the last 27. Under the total is also 20-7 (74.1%) in those games.
More on the total, it is important that Philadelphia is 20-6 Under the total in January games since 2011, and San Francisco’s head coach Kyle Shanahan is 28-17 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017. Finally, I can’t overlook that dating back to 2013, and after a pair of Unders on totals a year ago, that option on totals in the #3-#6 matchup is 20-5-1 (80%). I look for a 22-19 type of game in Philly on Sunday.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Give me UNDER 44.5 & SF +5.5 at the Linc on Sunday
Los Angeles Chargers at New England (-3.5)
There is some truth to the fact that the Patriots are also facing some of the tougher obstacles of recent years for playoff teams, most notably first-time playoff QB, and coming back to the postseason after a drought. I have shared some of those stats in earlier writeups and, of course, in my articles this week. That said, I don’t think any team is as underpriced as New England is this weekend for what it has accomplished all season long.
This team is solid in almost every area, and that is the reason they were #1 on my shared traits chart among AFC teams in terms of championship DNA. My power ratings show that HC Mike Vrabel’s team should be a -6.6 point favorite here, while the line is only -3.5. On top of that, the game isn’t getting real heavy action for the hosts either, with NE the choice of 64% of bettors. That adds to the value. The Pats are among the hottest teams in the league, having won three straight and 13 of their last 14 games. As a trend, New England is 35-7 SU and 31-11 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016.
More on that. NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 93-22 SU and 73-42 ATS (63.5%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3-points or more. I already called for a #2-#7 “upset” win by the #7 in the GB game, I can’t do it again, since in the five expanded playoff seasons, we’ve only seen the #7 seed win outright once, that being in 2024 in Green Bay’s upset of Dallas. Overall, the #2 seeds are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) in the matchup. Plus, why force a #2 win/no cover since the outright winner owns a point spread record of 69-10-1 ATS (87.3%) in the last 80 Wild Card playoff games!
I indicated earlier that statistically speaking, Vrabel’s team is as complete as they come. Well, the same can’t be said for the Chargers, who scored just 21.6 PPG this season. Well, road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-27 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) since 2009. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will play this one close to the vest accordingly, and he is on 12-2 Under the total surge vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG. Looking recently at the head-to-head action between these teams, you’ll find that favorites are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Chargers-Patriots series in New England. I’ll say 27-16 New England here.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Give me New England -3.5 and UNDER 45.5 in the SNF Wild Card game
Monday, January 11, 2026
Houston (-3) at Pittsburgh
Is there any Wild Card game this weekend where the host team will enjoy more home-field advantage than this one? Why do I say that? Well, not only is Pittsburgh known as a tough place to play overall with its terrible towels and such, but the NFL gave the Steelers an incredible boost by putting them on Monday Night Football, where they have lost at home just once since 1992. That is as far back as my own personal data goes, but the Pittsburgh record in that span is an incredible 23-1 SU and 16-8 ATS. Add to that the motivation of being a playoff home dog and that home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the HOU-PIT set, and this could be a huge motivational edge game.
As it is, Pittsburgh is 19-14 SU and 20-12-1 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013, and head coach Mike Tomlin is on a 35-28 SU and 41-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. The Steelers also have the much-seasoned veteran quarterback leading the way in Aaron Rodgers, and in my studies, I have found that in their last 13 playoff games, the veteran quarterbacks in new places are 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS (66.7%).
I also shared this week that nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the #4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last 20 seasons.
When you look at this game from a line/total combo, it suggests that the Texans are due for 20.8 points. That is better than only San Francisco for this weekend, and doesn’t even take into account the “extra” motivational stuff I shared before. Remember that the magic point total for road teams is 20 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the Wild Card round have lost 15 straight games outright and are 6-50 SU and 7-49 ATS (12.5%) since 2002.
Regarding the total, I am looking closer at the fact that Rodgers is 14-2 Over the total in January games since 2017, and that eight of the last 11 Wild Card games with closing totals of 40 or below went Over the total. I’ll call for a 24-17 Pittsburgh win.
NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Give me Pittsburgh +3 and Over 38.5 in the MNF contest
For more NFL Wild Card Weekend best bets, visit the NFL Wild Card betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
