Super Bowl Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I have spent the last week studying all kinds of stats, trends, matchups, and more regarding Sunday’s Super Bowl 60 matchup between the Patriots and Seahawks. And while I can certainly respect the oddsmakers’ insistence that Seattle is 4.5 points better than New England, I have found too many data points to believe this will be a comfortable win for New England. In short, I am going to be on the side of the Pats here, and I believe we will be in line for a more defensive-oriented Under-type game. I will explain to you why.
For those wondering, in my best bets columns over the last three weeks, I have pegged all three of the Patriots’ playoff games to a tee, even so much as calling for a low-scoring 3-point game that could go either way in the AFC title contest. I personally feel like if there is one underrated unit going into Sunday’s game, it’s the Patriots’ defense, and I believe it will serve as motivation for a franchise looking to set an NFL record for Super Bowl wins: seven. I also have some legitimate concerns about the Seahawks’ offense, which has turned the ball over a lot this season, and is dealing with the game’s only real key injury, the season-ender to RB Zach Charbonnet.
Expanding on those thoughts, and others…
Getting back to that Patriots’ underrated defense. In the score and individual stat prop forecast I did for SB60, the defensive yardage per play projection I formulated for New England was 3.49 YPP. Now, I do balance this on a 1/3 defense to 2/3 opposing offense basis, so the overall projection for Seattle was 5.02 yards per play. That said, the 3.49 for NE was the lowest figure I have seen since starting this forecast method five years ago. If you go back through head coach Mike Vrabel’s team’s last four games, you would find that they didn’t allow more than 4.83 effective yards per play in any of the four games, with the three most recent being playoff tilts. I repeat, this is a very good and very underrated defense.
Looking at how New England is going to attack the Seattle defense, which is very good but not underrated, I personally believe Pats’ OC Josh McDaniels will lean heavily on the running game, with QB Drake Maye being a big part of that. The passing game, which was #1 in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt, will be a “backup plan.” The Patriots boast two solid running backs, each bringing a unique element to the table. Rhamondre Stevenson is on an incredible surge and brings power, speed, solid pass protection, and receiving skills to the mix. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson is a lightning rod that can strike it big on any carry. Maye is also a huge threat with his legs, as well as his arm. However, being just a second-year pro, I don’t think the game plan falls squarely on him. For as much as Seattle has the league’s #1 ranked defense against the rush, New England is on an 11-4 ATS surge versus solid rushing defenses allowing less than 3.9 YPR
Looking at the Seattle attack on offense, my first concern is turnovers, as only the Vikings had more giveaways this season. QB Sam Darnold is currently on a 3-game streak without throwing an interception. That is the first time that has happened all year. To say he is due for a pick or two might be an understatement. He has also been sacked 21 times in the last eight games after just 11 in the first 11 games.
I also have concerns of Darnold forcing the ball to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba if they get down in the game at any time. The Seahawks have not trailed much in recent action, and for as good as JSN has been, there isn’t much balance elsewhere in terms of pass catchers. My stat projections had no one else getting to even three receptions on Sunday. I imagine Pats’ star CB Christian Gonzalez will draw much of the assignment with JSN. However, if there is an equal concern elsewhere, it’s with the Seahawks rushing attack, where there isn’t a whole lot of depth now that Zach Charbonnet is out. Kenneth Walker has been good, but he has also not run the ball 20 times in a game all season. As it is, my projections only had the Seahawks gaining 3.9 yards per rush in this game.
In projecting how this game might be played, I was a bit surprised to see that, over the last 10 games, both teams have shown a stronger tendency to run. In fact, New England has run on 51.6% of offensive plays in that time frame, Seattle, 51.3%. Neither runs an up-tempo style of play, with each averaging around 1.9 offensive possessions per minute. That is a little slower than the league average of 1.96 PPM. Both teams have also been around the 33-minute mark for average effective time of possession in that 10-game span. What does this all mean? To me, it suggests this game will be played slower than recent Super Bowls, with the outcome decided more by what happens up front than by the quarterbacks and playmakers on the outside. In that sense, I give New England the edge on offense, Seattle the edge on defense. Yet neither edge is big enough to warrant a 4.5-point spread.
Unlike last year, when I proclaimed that the 2024-25 version of the Chiefs was quite possibly one of the worst teams statistically to play in the Super Bowl in many years, I believe that both of these teams are deserving of this stage, regardless of what experts are saying about New England’s lack of schedule difficulty in getting here.
For the record, after a run of 12-6-2 ATS from 1997-2016, the team that played the tougher schedule in the regular season is now just 3-6 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games. Getting beat up by a harder schedule has not been a recipe for success. The fact that these two teams were both in the top 3 in my article a few weeks ago on shared traits in championship DNA also doesn’t warrant a tie for the biggest point spread in any Super Bowl game since 2009.
Speaking of recipes, I think projecting stats in simulations is an important exercise in handicapping Super Bowl games, since the planning is so rigorous that it takes a lot of risk out of the coaches’ minds. I have found that the recipe for success in the Super Bowl comes down to controlling the time of possession, running the football, getting big plays through the air, and winning the turnover battle. Well, in my projections, I found that New England was due for a slight TOP edge (30:14-29:46), and an edge in rushing yardage (148.3-110.5), while Seattle should enjoy an edge in yards per pass attempt (6.34-6.03). The turnover differential is hard to project, but I already noted that Seattle was next-to-last in the league in giveaways this season, a clear red flag. If New England does hold an edge in three of these four categories, we have to consider that teams that hold an edge in at least three of four key statistical categories are 41-6 SU and 37-9-1 ATS (80.4%) historically in this game.
Finally, I would be absolutely remiss if I didn’t cite these recent trends in Super Bowl games. 1) The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-17-2 ATS (10.5%) in the last 28 Super Bowl games! 2) Over the past 24 years, underdogs own an 18-6 ATS (75%) edge in the Super Bowl, including 14-4 ATS in the last 18. Why might this be? Well, perhaps because the Super Bowl is such a heavily bet contest by recreational bettors, and just “another game” for most sharps. Well, what do public recreation bettors love to bet? Favorites and Overs on totals. Now, while these don’t always lose, for 2026, I do think we have to be aware that the most public of sportsbooks, DraftKings, is showing a betting disparity of 76% handle on Seattle, and 61% handle on Over the total. That 76% handle is a scary number in a game this big.
After all of that, my two most realistic projections for this game would be 1) New England winning outright in a very tight contest decided late or 2) Seattle winning and covering in a game in which it holds the New England offense in check nearly all day. I’ll go with the former, let’s say New England 24-20. With such, I will make the following wagers in order of liking:
- Under 45.5 -112
- New England +4.5 -105
- New England Money Line +190
- 6-point teaser NE +10.5/Under 51.5
My favorite props
A lot of my prop wagers stem from the fact that both teams have run the ball with a greater tendency down the stretch and in the postseason. Both teams were also in the top 4 in the league after last week in terms of full-season pass defense (yards per attempt allowed). I don’t expect a game filled with offensive fireworks, and the individual statistical projections I made for this game validated those thoughts. These are the SB60 props I am looking at:
- TreVeyon Henderson – OVER 4.5 rushing attempts
- Rhamondre Stevenson – OVER 51.5 rushing yards
- Stevenson – anytime TD scorer +160
- Cooper Kupp – OVER 2.5 receptions
- AJ Barner – OVER 2.5 receptions
- Sam Darnold – UNDER 229 passing yards
Good luck with your Super Bowl LX wagering!
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