NFL Week 4 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I put together a nice 8-2 ATS week in NFL Week 3, bringing my season record to 18-10 ATS (64.3%). I was on the fortunate side on a couple of decisions: getting in early on the Lions (-6.5) and their 31-24 win over the Jets, and Arizona getting the late backdoor field goal to cover at San Francisco. Of course, that was always a possibility, as we have become accustomed to the Cardinals doing this with QB Jacoby Brissett. The rest of the games were fairly decisive and even had a few underdog money line winners. It’s been a solid start to the 2026 season, and I feel like the systems and trends I’ve relied on have been stronger than ever. Hopefully that continues in the coming weeks.
For Week 4, we have our first pre-bye week games, and I encourage you to see the article I posted earlier in the week, as the systems I’ve tracked for several years did fantastic in 2025, with eight of the 10 winning nicely. In any case, after digging through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Reports for guidance. Riding a hot streak, I’ve landed on these 10 games for this weekend…
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Total 38.5)
For as much as Bill Adee glorified a TNF trend in this morning’s newsletter that 21 of the last 31 home dogs on Thursday nights have gone Under the total, I can’t help but think this total is being priced as if it is a Shadeur Sanders vs. Mason Rudolph quarterback matchup. The actual QBs, Watson and Rodgers, are far more capable, and I believe they proved it last week, as both were very sharp and both seem to be acclimating themselves nicely to their new offenses. Rodgers, in particular, has looked very good early on, but his numbers have been hurt by a ton of drops. Meanwhile, Watson has five TDs in the first three weeks and looks like he could be the answer for head coach Todd Monken in Cleveland. I’m sure by now you’ve seen the trend of how well the Browns have played on Thursday nights, and if forced to take a side, I’d probably be on that one, but I hate seeing it when these obvious angles get glorified. My effective yards per play numbers for this game suggest this total should be closer to 41.5, not 38.5, and I feel any trends you read about the Steelers and Unders can almost be negated by the coaching change to Mike McCarthy. He wants this game to be about his offense and Rodgers, and I think that’s what it will be. With 86% of the handle at DraftKings leaning Under, I’m calling for a 24-20 type of game.
NFL Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 38.5 in Pittsburgh-Cleveland TNF tilt
Sunday, October 4, 2026
New England Patriots (+6.5) at Buffalo Bills
The defending AFC champs are 1-2, two games back already in their division and have their backs against the wall as they head into Buffalo on Sunday. If you think this team is ready to fold, you wouldn’t bet on them here. If you think this team, under its fiery head coach Mike Vrabel, will play with the heart of an AFC champion, then the +6.5 points is a must-take. It would seem that most public bettors, or 73% of the bets in, are projecting a first nail in the coffin of the 2026 Patriots. However, in NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 217-265 ATS (45%) for -74.5 units. Plus, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 186-203 ATS (47.8%) mark.
I don’t blame bettors for going against New England. They looked really bad last week against Jacksonville. However, low-scoring losers bounce back as divisional underdogs: Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been solid bets as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 36-66 SU but 65-34-3 ATS (65.7%) since the start of the 2020 season. Let’s not forget, even though Buffalo won and covered last week in a 24-16 defeat of the Chargers, the Bills still struggled, turning the ball over five times. NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 22-16 SU but 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012. This rivalry has been tight too, with road teams 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five Patriots-Bills AFC East meetings. I expect Vrabel’s team to play like its season depends on it.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go New England +6.5 at Buffalo
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (+2.5)
I don’t necessarily want to call it a “coaching mismatch,” but in this week’s schedule, no game on the NFL board has a bigger advantage for one team over the other than the Cardinals-Giants contest. Furthermore, the better, more experienced coach is at home, where his team is 2-0 on the season, having seemingly placed importance on reestablishing home-field dominance in New York. Regarding the Cards’ LaFleur, smaller favorites of -4 or fewer have gone 101-73 SU but 74-88-11 ATS (45.7%) over the last decade.
Meanwhile, unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches like Harbaugh have been more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 64-54 ATS (54.2%). Road/Neutral games – 58-64 ATS (47.5%). This contest has a strange betting split dynamic: only 33% of the handle is on New York, but 65% of the bets. Normally I would flock away from John Harbaugh & Co., except, since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 139-115 ATS (54.7%) record for +12.5 units.
I’m not sure anything Arizona has done to date has commanded a road favorite line yet either, and teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-45 SU and 34-61 ATS (35.8%) since the start of the 2019 season. As it is, Arizona is 20-34 ATS (37%) as a favorite since 2016, and Harbaugh is 15-17 SU but 23-9 ATS as an underdog since 2018.
NFL Best Bet: Not sure the right team is favored here. I’ll take the +2.5 with the Giants
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
If you haven’t seen the trend yet, yes, Jacksonville is just 1-24 SU and 9-16 ATS since 2008 in games with totals of 49 or higher. If you want to argue that things will be different this time since these Jaguars are much better than previous versions, you could be right, since they are outscoring opponents by 15.3 PPG. However, historically, NFL road dogs with a +10 or better point differential on the season are just 31-40 ATS since 2017. These are some of the best teams of recent years slipping into this role, almost as if the oddsmakers know they are due for a letdown.
Of course, in predictable fashion, novice bettors are getting behind the Jaguars here, with 63% of the numbers of bets on them. However, and this is where I like to see small favorites land, 62% of the handle, or the supposed sharper money, is on Cincinnati at -2.5. I’m not sure the masses know the great team-tendency spots that this game falls into for the Bengals.
First, Cincinnati is on a 28-14 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016. Second, Cincinnati is 76-63 SU and 84-55 ATS when playing on normal rest (seven days) since 2012. Third, QB Joe Burrow is 11-9 SU and 17-3 ATS in his last 20 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG, and 22-11 SU and 24-9 ATS (72.7%) vs. non-divisional AFC foes. And fourth, head coach Zac Taylor is on a 14-13 SU and 20-7 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%. Good team at home, soft number; I’ll take it.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go with Cincinnati -2.5 to beat Jacksonville
Miami Dolphins (+10.5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
Be honest, even at 3-0, has anything you’ve seen so far led you to believe that Minnesota should be a double-digit favorite over anyone? I know Miami has the supposed worst roster in the league, but even in last week’s 24-10 loss to Kansas City, the Dolphins would have fared better without some highly questionable key officiating calls. That loss margin does help us value-wise for this week, however.
Look at this crazy NFL system that literally squashes public bettors: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-31 SU but 33-11-2 ATS (75%) in their last 46 tries. 75% ATS!!! Miami has been solid vs. the NFC as a franchise lately, 32-21 ATS (60.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014. Besides being a massive favorite here, you should know that Minnesota is 25-13 SU but only 13-25 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite. QB Kyler Murray is also just 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in his last 18 starts as a favorite.
Murray also falls into a couple of historical league-wide systems going against veteran QB’s on new teams: 1) Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-35 SU and 16-36-1 ATS (30.8%). 2) In their last 71 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QB’s have gone just 35-36 SU and 30-40-1 ATS (42.9%). This trend dates back to 2021. The DK betting splits also show this game falling into what I have called the Over trap, when a supermajority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 110-125 (46.8%) for -27.5 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. That leads me to believe Minnesota won’t score enough points to separate here.
NFL Best Bet: Miami +10.5 for me at Minnesota
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Denver has to be breathing a sigh of relief after three weeks sitting at 2-1. With come-from-behind wins against Jacksonville and the Rams at home the last two weeks, head coach Sean Payton’s team literally saved its season. You might think I’m overstating things, but had the Broncos been 0-3 with trips to the 49ers and Chargers on deck, then a home game with Seattle, things could have unraveled fast for this team.
As it is, I can see this game as a huge letdown spot, since the line doesn’t reflect one of the league’s better teams playing at home. San Francisco is 3-0 and scoring 32.7 PPG. It is very rare to get a team like this as just a 3-point home favorite at any time. Of course, several team trends in this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Reports indicate this is a tough spot for the 49ers to cover. However, with the line this low, I’m not sure how many are actually valid. One of the angles that does catch my eye is that San Francisco is on a 17-2 Over the total surge as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points. This leads me to believe that this game could feature a lot of points, in which case I would side with the host averaging 8.3 PPG more on offense “effectively.”
Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team will also be backed by a nice system based on their three wins: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 94-22 SU and 74-42 ATS (63.8%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more. Home teams have won and covered the last three games in this series. Let’s make it four.
NFL Best Bet: Give me San Francisco -3 versus Denver
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Total 47.5)
We have our first pre-bye week trends and systems of the season lined up for Sunday, as the Chiefs and Panthers are both off next week. That said, the top two systems that I have written about for the last decade or so for VSiN have involved teams heading into their bye weeks and facing divisional opponents. First, they are very good at covering. Second, the games are usually low-scoring. It is the second angle I am most interested in for this game versus the Raiders, as I still feel like the Chiefs are caught in a mode where their offense isn’t what it once was, and they hence turn to their kicker and defense to get wins. Here is the system: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 40-16-2 since ‘13, 71.4%, +22.4 Units, 40% ROI, Grade 72).
For what it’s worth, as a franchise, the Chiefs are on a 7-2-1 Under the total surge in pre-bye-week divisional contests, games producing 32.5 PPG. The Raiders’ hot start offensively challenges head coach Andy Reid’s defense, but Reid is on a 12-5 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG.
I also like that this game seems to be one of the bigger public Over calls of the week, with 79% of the handle at DraftKings on that side of the total. The magic mark for supermajority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (3-7 for -4.7 units in 2026). This has been my long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. With both teams 4-0, I think they will play this closer to the vest, and defense will rule the day.
NFL Best Bet: Give me UNDER 47.5 in Kansas City-Las Vegas
Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at Seattle Seahawks
The defending Super Bowl champions’ defense was finally penetrated by the Commanders and QB Marcus Mariota of all teams, as they lost their long winning streak dating back to last season in Washington last Sunday. No big deal, as they should get back going with a home matchup versus the winless Chargers, right? Well, at least that’s what the betting public is thinking at DK, as 80% of the handle there is on the hosts for this one.
Uh oh… What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years, when a supermajority handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 14-26 ATS (35%) for -14.6 units and an ROI of -36.5%.
We also have a QB tendency in place that reared its ugly head last week too: Seattle QB Sam Darnold is 14-12 SU but 10-15-1 ATS in his last 26 starts vs. teams with losing records. To me, the number is the big thing here, as at -7, the Seahawks have to tame a team in complete desperation mode.
A team that has been in the playoffs in three straight seasons. I just have a hard time seeing this talented Chargers team roll over here, since NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-81 SU but 61-33 ATS (64.9%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006. Not to mention the fact that underdogs are 7-4 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 non-pick ‘em games between the Chargers and Seahawks.
NFL Best Bet: Give me the Chargers +7 to give it one last gasp to save the ’26 season
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
The Lions have played three games this season and are 2-1, with both wins coming at home. In none of the three contests did I feel like this is one of the best teams in football. In fact, they are far closer to 0-3 than they are to 3-0. For Sunday, they get a spot on the big stage once again, as they travel to Carolina for SNF. Recent history shows that, as a franchise, they are just 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 SNF appearances. The fact that they have scored well so far (31 points in each game) doesn’t figure to help them either, since, strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 15-12 SU but 6-21 ATS (22.2%) in their last 27 tries against teams not scoring that much.
Another thing to consider in terms of this being a Sunday night game is that home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 22-27-1 SU but 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) dating back to 2017. I mentioned before that these were our first pre-bye week games of the season, and that could benefit the Panthers in this spot, since home underdogs heading into their bye week are 39-24-3 ATS since 2015, and they are on a stretch of 10-3 ATS in pre-bye week games, including an upset as double-digit home dogs vs. the Rams in 2025. In Charlotte, Carolina is on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak in home pre-bye week games, scoring 30.8 PPG. Thus, even if the Lions get their customary 31 points, QB Bryce Young & Co. are proving capable of matching.
NFL Best Bet: Let’s go with Carolina +3.5 as another live SNF underdog
Monday, October 5, 2026
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at New Orleans Saints (1-2)
I’m not sure anyone who watched last Thursday’s game, where Atlanta went into Green Bay and won 35-14, didn’t look at the Falcons as a completely different team with QB Michael Penix under center. Funny though, I don’t think this week’s line reflects the “new” Atlanta team as much as it should. I think this MNF trend should be considered greatly when looking at the game in New Orleans: Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 10-6 SU and ATS (62.5%) in their last 16 tries.
As it is, the Saints are in a tough covering spot, as home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 18-17 SU but 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%) in their last 35 tries. As a franchise, New Orleans is just 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 MNF games and 0-8 in its last eight primetime games overall. In general, I like the comfort in knowing favorites will score enough to cover lines when I back them. In which case, for head coach Kellen Moore’s team, this trend is a major concern: New Orleans is on 17-1 Under the total run when playing with extra rest (>7 days).
Primetime game bettors have absolutely floundered in the early going in the NFL, as my betting splits systems have accurately projected: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-157 ATS (47%) and 138-155 ATS (47.1%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. I believe I saw 0-10 for 2026 so far. Add to all this the fact that these teams have seen underdogs go 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Falcons-Saints NFC South rivalry, and I think we have the makings for a live dog in the new-look Falcons.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go with Atlanta +2.5, with a great shot at an upset in New Orleans on MNF
