On Monday, October 5, the New Orleans Saints welcome the Atlanta Falcons to the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Falcons vs. Saints
When: Monday, October 5 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Channel: ESPN
Falcons vs. Saints Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Sunday, October 4. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Saints -130, Falcons +110
Spread: Saints -1.5 (-115), Falcons +1.5 (-105)
Total: Over 47.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-105)
Falcons vs. Saints Analysis
If you’re a VSiN Pro subscriber, you might have noticed I took the Falcons at +3 earlier in the week. If you’re not, I strongly suggest hopping on one of our many subscription options. That number is long gone, so you won’t be getting a field goal if you like Atlanta. However, this is still a game I’m expecting the Falcons to win.
These are two teams that really like their chances in the NFC South, and I’m pretty high on both of them. However, I do believe Atlanta is the stronger team right now.
Heading into Week 4, the Falcons were eighth in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.062). While Atlanta hired offensive-minded head coach Kevin Stefanski, the defense has looked much better to start this season. The Falcons have been a top-five defense against the run (-0.312), and they’re in the top half of the league against the pass (0.030).
Atlanta’s rushing defense is big in this specific matchup. The Saints have been efficient on the ground to start this year, but they’re up against a tough defensive front. They’re also going to have to attack it without Travis Etienne, who is their RB1. New Orleans does have some other good options in the backfield, but this isn’t a game in which you want to be down your top guy.
I also love the Falcons’ chances of moving the ball against this Saints defense. Stefanski really is an excellent offensive coach, and his offense looked so much better with Michael Penix Jr. in for Cooper Rush last game. Atlanta now comes into this one with some extra time to prepare, and the team is going up against a New Orleans defense that is in the league’s bottom 10 in EPA/Play Allowed (0.077).
Home-field advantage obviously means a little something in these types of games, but the Falcons look like the better team on both sides of the ball. That’s not something I’m interested in passing up.
Kellen Moore also happens to be only 1-3 straight-up against division opponents, and the Saints are 0-4 both SU and against the spread in home games with totals of 42.5 to 49 points under him.
Falcons vs. Saints Player Props
LEAN: Drake London Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
I won’t be playing London to go Over his yardage total, but our WR/CB Matchup Tool tells a good story with him. London will be working primarily against Quincy Riley, and that matchup is the 12th-most favorable in the database for this week. This is one of my favorite tools we have, so the numbers aren’t insignificant. Riley currently grades out at just 68.4 in coverage at Pro Football Focus. London is also coming off a game with nine catches for 194 yards. He’ll be a popular pick in this one.
Falcons vs. Saints Pick
As previously mentioned, I have Atlanta +3 in this game. I also sprinkled the Falcons moneyline at +130. However, I’d still be playing Atlanta right now. I also don’t hate the idea of buying the Falcons up to a touchdown and parlaying it with Cowboys moneyline in their Thursday night meeting with the Buccaneers.
Bet: Falcons +3 (-118) & Falcons ML (+130 – 0.5 units)
