Studying 2024 NFL Quality Wins/Losses to Predict 2025 Success

Studying 2024 NFL Quality Wins/Losses to Predict 2025 Success

With the NFL schedule release this week, there will be endless dissecting of it to find advantages/disadvantages for all 32 teams. Many people will use this 17-game set as a means for predicting how teams will fare in 2025. For as much as I also love looking ahead to the fall and the big games on the schedule, personally, I always feel that the degree to which a team will improve or decline in any given season is determined by other factors, and I prove it through the data that I study each spring. 

Over the last several weeks, I’ve studied the draft, the new coaches, and the new starting quarterbacks for the various franchises. As I continue to ramp up my offseason NFL work, the next couple of pieces will be to dig into a subject I call Changeover Systems. They are data angles that take records and/or statistics from one season to provide insight as to which teams might be better or worse in the follow-up season. These are always very popular articles, and they wind up being a major factor in what goes into my Regular Season Win Total Wagers.

Perhaps the highlight of this analysis came five years ago, when many of these most optimistic systems pointed to the Buccaneers enjoying a breakout 2020 season. All the Bucs did was go on to win their first-ever Super Bowl title. In 2022, the predictions were strong all over, with major improvements for teams like Seattle, Minnesota, and the Giants being cited. Then in 2023, these systems called for severe drops from those same Vikings and Giants, with the Chargers sprinkled in a lot as well. All of those teams won at least three fewer games that season. Last year’s highlight teams were Washington and Dallas, and both performed according to the potential improve/decline trends, respectively. I was able to cash in on all these predictions, based heavily on the Changeover Systems I will unveil now and in part two next week.

This exercise continues my spring routine of preparing for the upcoming NFL season. I go through the list of won/lost and statistical traits that I feel are most important in determining which NFL teams have the best chance of getting better or worse, and by how much. As I noted earlier, I will do this series in two parts. In this first half, I will analyze the quality and quantity of teams’ won-lost records by various means. Next week, I will dig into a number of key statistical angles that typically lead to significant improvement or decline.

The NFL is unlike any other sporting league in that teams can make quick, definitive turnarounds from year to year, both positively & negatively. First-to-worst and worst-to-first are not unusual terms, and unlike the NBA or NHL, you can see seasons where more than half of the teams that qualify for the playoffs are different from the prior campaign, although this trend has actually lessened the last two seasons. It benefits the bettor greatly to know the traits that lead to teams improving or declining quickly. What is the typical resume of a team that improves greatly from one season to the next? Those who can find the answers to these questions can take advantage of not only the futures wagers and season win totals available prior to a season, but also the point spreads in the early weeks of the season before those setting the odds can catch up.

Read through the findings over the next couple of weeks and make your own assessments of the teams you feel might not be what we saw from them in 2024. Then factor in the coaching changes, free agent transactions each team made, along with their draft results, and head to the betting window. I will share my own personal conclusions, along with my updated 2025 NFL Power Ratings, in the next couple of weeks.

Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of close wins in the prior season

In 2019, Seattle’s 10 “close wins” (eight points or less) were the most by any team in the NFL over the last 24 seasons. In that span, of the 35 teams that managed 8+ close wins, only five improved the next season, and the average decline for the other 30 teams was 3.2 wins per season. However, this angle did project an Eagles’ decline last year, and all they did was go on to a Super Bowl title. There are a record high six teams qualifying for this angle in 2025, including Kansas City, who sets a new benchmark with 11 “close wins” in 2024.
Teams affected in 2025: Indianapolis, Kansas City, LA Rams, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Washington

The last nine seasons have shown another trend against teams that win a lot of close games. In that span, there have been 70 teams that won 6+ games by eight points or less. Of that group, only 18 have improved in the next season, with the other 52 dropping off by 3.0 wins per year.
Teams affected in 2025: Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, LA Rams, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Washington 

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Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of close losses in the prior season

Since 1993, 46 teams have lost 8+ games in “close loss” format, that being one possession or less (eight pts). Of those, 39 improved the next season, with a combined average improvement of a hefty 3.97 wins per season. Last year, three teams met this criteria, and two improved greatly (LAC +6, MIN +7) while New England matched its prior season record.
Teams affected in 2025: Jacksonville, NY Giants 

There have been 134 teams over the last 21 years that went into the next season after having lost at least six games by one score or less (<=8 points). Of these, 97 teams improved their won-lost record the next season, including 51 of them by 4+ wins. The average improvement of the 91 teams was 3.85 wins per season. Of the 23 teams that qualified for this angle in 2023 & 2024, only four teams got worse. You can pretty much count on seven or eight of the following 11 teams improving this fall. Can you see four of them making a 4+ game bump?
Teams affected in 2025: Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans, NY Giants, NY Jets, San Francisco, Tennessee

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Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of blowout wins in the prior season

Since 1997, there have been 72 teams that have recorded 8+ double-digit wins in a season. Only eight of them improved the next season. The average win decline of the other 64 teams that qualified was -3.6. All three teams that met these criteria a year ago dropped, including Dallas (-5 wins) and San Francisco (-6 wins).
Team affected in 2025: Detroit, Denver

Over the last 28 seasons, there have been 49 teams that have recorded at least five blowout wins (20+ points) in a season.  Of them, only seven were able to improve their won-lost record the next season. The other 42 combined for an average win decline of –3.36. Interestingly, the Bills qualify for this angle for a second year in a row.
Team affected in 2025: Baltimore, Buffalo

There have been 37 teams over the last 31 seasons that won seven or more games, with one or fewer by double-digit margins. This is typically a decline situation, as only 12 of the 37 improved in the next season. The other 25 combined for an average decline of 1.8 wins per season.
Teams affected in 2025: Indianapolis

Ironically, teams that won five or fewer games, none by double-digit margins, have shown significant improvement in the follow-up campaign. In fact, since 1993, there have been 55 such teams, and 52 of them improved the next season, by an average of 3.96 wins per season, including one by as many as 10 games. The Commanders qualified last year and went from 4-13 to 12-5.
Teams affected in 2025: Cleveland 

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Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of blowout losses in the prior season

There have been 65 teams since 2001 that have lost seven games or more in a season but suffered zero blowout losses (20+ points). These teams have shown a tendency for improvement, with only 18 of the 65 dropping off. The other 45 improved by 2.23 wins per season. There is a list of four teams qualifying in 2025, including Tampa Bay, who does it for a second straight season.
Teams affected in 2025: Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay

As another key sign of how teams can quickly improve from a dreadful season, over the last 31 seasons, there have been 78 teams that have lost at least eight games in a season by double-digit margins. Of those, 59 improved the next season, and by an average of 3.68 wins per year, including the Cardinals (+4) and Panthers (+3) a season ago. Carolina is once again a qualifier.
Teams affected in 2025: Carolina, Cleveland, Las Vegas

Since 1994, there have been 94 double-digit win teams that suffered at least three of their losses by double-digit margins. Almost half of those teams (46) dropped dramatically the next season, by at least three wins. The average drop for the 65 teams that did decline was 3.88 wins per season. The Browns, Cowboys, and Dolphins all fit into the extreme drop group in 2024.
Teams affected in 2025: Pittsburgh, Seattle

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Systems of teams based upon their playoff results from the prior season 

Only three of the last 31 teams that lost in the Super Bowl improved their won-lost record in the follow-up season, with an average win decline of 3.42 per season. Those that had 7+ double-digit wins in that prior SB losing season declined by 4.2 wins on average.
Team affected in 2025: Kansas City (had 5 double-digit wins) 

Alternatively, the last 32 teams that won the Super Bowl were far better off in maintaining success, with only a 1.2 win drop per season, boasting an average won-lost record of 10.8-5.2. Kansas City was 15-2 a year ago, following up on their prior year title. Only three of those 32 teams finished under .500 the next season, including the Rams of 2022, who went 5-12.
Team affected in 2025: Philadelphia

None of the 43 teams in the last 28 years that won 13 games or more and didn’t make the Super Bowl improved their won-lost record in the follow-up season, and only four equaled that prior win total. The average win decline was 3.65 per season!
Teams affected in 2025: Buffalo, Detroit, Minnesota

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Systems of teams whose won-lost records are trending

All 11 teams since 2000 that had won fewer games than the prior season in three straight seasons have improved their won-lost record by an average of 4.5 wins per season!
Teams affected in 2025: Tennessee 

Since 2002, only one of the 19 teams that had recorded improved records in three straight seasons continued that trend. The average drop for the declining group was 4.44 wins per season, with an average season win total of 6.4.
Team affected in 2025: Detroit

Of the 35 teams since 2005 that won 6+ games fewer than the prior season, 31 rebounded to improve their won-lost record in the follow-up campaign, by an average of 4.0 wins per season.
Team affected in 2025: Cleveland, San Francisco

Only five of the last 51 teams since 1998 that won 6+ more games than the prior season improved in the follow-up campaign, with an average season win drop of 3.4 from the other 45 teams.
Teams affected in 2025: LA Chargers, Minnesota, Washington