SNF Chiefs vs. Packers Week 13 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Sunday Night Football game. In Week 13, that game features the Green Bay Packers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Chiefs are coming off a 31-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and it was a win in which the team looked superb in the second half. Meanwhile, the Packers absolutely dominated the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day, and this team is coming into this game with some serious momentum. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Chiefs vs. Packers preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Chiefs vs. Packers
Date: Sunday, December 3
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
Chiefs vs. Packers Spread
The Packers are suddenly playing some good football, as they have won and covered in three of their last four. Green Bay is also coming off an impressive 29-22 road win over a very good Detroit team. The Packers were getting more than a touchdown in that game, but they ended up not needing the points. And it was Jordan Love that led the way for Green Bay, throwing for 268 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. Over the last two weeks, Love has now thrown for 590 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He looks a lot more comfortable under center, but this Kansas City defense is going to present all sorts of challenges for him.
This season, the Chiefs are eighth in the league in Defensive DVOA, and they’re third when it comes to stopping the pass. So, this team is well equipped to stop Love in his tracks. A big factor in that will be Trent McDuffie, who is the fourth-ranked corner in the NFL when it comes to PFF’s player grading. He should do a good job of slowing down whoever he ends up covering here, and I also think Chris Jones will get a ton of pressure on Love from the inside.
The only question with Kansas City is whether the team can stop the run. The Chiefs are just 27th in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run. But they’re facing the right team here, as the Packers are extremely banged up in the backfield. Green Bay is also just 23rd in the NFL in adjusted line yards, so this O-Line doesn’t consistently get a ton of push.
Offensively, it just feels like the Chiefs are due for some big performances. Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league, but his season totals of 2,917 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions are rather pedestrian. But Kansas City’s offense really woke up after a slow start against Las Vegas last week, scoring all 31 points in the final three quarters. The Chiefs were borderline unstoppable once they got rolling, and Rashee’s Rice emergence as a pass catcher was a big part of that. It’ll be interesting to see if the rookie can build on that eight-catch, 107-yard performance, as Kansas City has been starving for somebody to emerge at wide receiver. That’ll force defenses to stop throwing everything they have at Travis Kelce.
One last thing to note when looking at this game is that the Chiefs are 7-0 against the spread in road games against NFC opponents over the last three seasons. Kansas City won those games by 13.4 points per game.
Chiefs vs. Packers Total
I honestly don’t have a great read on the total in this game. The Under is 8-3 in the 11 games the Chiefs have played this season, and it’s also 6-5 in the 11 the Packers have played. So, both of these teams have leaned towards playing low-scoring games this season, and it’s also expected to be pretty cold in Green Bay. When you combine that with the fact that neither team has consistently been explosive in the passing game, it’s easy to see why this might be lower in scoring.
The flip side of that is that the Chiefs really seemed to find something offensively last game, and the Packers have definitely gotten themselves going on that side of the ball over the last few weeks. With that in mind, it might be worth throwing out everything you saw earlier in the year.
Chiefs vs. Packers Player Props
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Rashee Rice Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115 – Play to -125)
I don’t think it’s a fluke that Rice has been targeted 15 times for 12 catches, 149 yards and a score in the two weeks since the Chiefs had a bye week. Kansas City has been begging for somebody to step up and help out Kelce as a pass catcher, and it looks like Rice is going to be the second option in this offense down the stretch. Rice looked extremely good in that role against the Raiders, and we’re getting to the point in the season when rookies are no longer really rookies. They have seen everything at this point in the year, so they know what to expect. Now, Kansas City will be hoping that Rice can keep it rolling heading into the playoffs. And I like this matchup for him, as the Packers have plenty of burnable defensive backs.
Chiefs vs. Packers Prediction
I have been impressed with the way Love has turned his season around over the last few weeks, but I think he’s in for a rough week here. Kansas City’s defense is going to throw all different kinds of looks at him, and the Chiefs have players that will be looking to turn him over. Kansas City also seems to be waking up offensively, so this is just bad timing for the Packers. That said, I’m laying the points with the road team.
Bet: Chiefs -6
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