SNF Cowboys vs. 49ers Week 5 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Sunday Night Football game. In Week 5, that game features the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Dallas Cowboys at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. These have been two of the best teams in the league thus far, so this should be an exciting game for NFL fans and bettors. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Cowboys vs. 49ers preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Cowboys vs. 49ers
Date: Sunday, October 8
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
Cowboys vs. 49ers Spread
The 49ers earned a 19-12 win as 3.5-point favorites against the Cowboys in the playoffs last season. It was the second year in a row that San Francisco eliminated Dallas, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if these two meet in the postseason again. These are two of the three best teams in the NFC this season, so we’re in for a treat on Sunday night. However, I do think the 49ers are a cut above the rest of the NFC. And playing this one at home, I like their chances of covering against America’s Team.
This season, the 49ers are struggling a bit to defend the run, as they’re 23rd in the league in Defensive DVOA against the rush. But I’d be pretty surprised if they don’t figure it out soon, as they were second in the league in that mark last year. And they’re going to really prioritize it this week, as they aren’t going to want to let Tony Pollard beat them. They’re better off stacking the box a bit and forcing Dak Prescott to do it with his arm. Prescott is no slouch in any way, shape or form, but the 49ers have the personnel in the secondary to give him trouble. He was miserable against San Francisco in the playoffs last year, throwing for only 206 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
I’m also just not sure the Cowboys will be able to get enough stops against this 49ers offense. Dallas has been exceptional against opposing quarterbacks this year, as the team is first in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass. However, the Cowboys are most susceptible over the middle of the field, and that’s an area the 49ers are completely comfortable attacking. I also just don’t think there are many teams that can slow down this 49ers ground game right now. They have the second-most efficient rushing attack in the league, with Christian McCaffrey up at 459 yards with six touchdowns on the ground this year. He’s also averaging the most yards per carry (5.7) of his career, by far. Brock Purdy obviously isn’t a great quarterback, but he can hit open windows if the Cowboys are overplaying the run.
San Francisco is also 11-1 against the spread as a home favorite over the last two seasons, and the Niners have won those games by an average of 16.8 points per game. San Francisco has also won 14 regular season games in a row and the team has covered in 11 of those games.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Total
I’m not in love with the total in this game, but it’s hard not to lean Under. These teams are both top five in rushing percentage this year, with San Francisco being second and Dallas being fifth. When two teams want to run as often as these two, it’s hard for games to go Over. Also, throw in the fact that the Cowboys are first in the league in Defensive DVOA and the 49ers are seventh, and all of a sudden this game really looks like it should be a low-scoring one.
Both playoff games between these two went Under the total, too. So, the recent history also suggests that these two are going to play a physical game in which the defenses will lead the way. It’s also worth throwing in that the Under is 18-9 in games the Cowboys have played on the road under head coach Mike McCarthy. It’s also 15-3 when San Francisco is coming off back-to-back home games under Kyle Shanahan.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Player Props
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Brock Purdy Over 20.5 Completions
Purdy has only completed more than 20 passes in a game once this season, but I think he’ll need to throw it a little more here. While I do think McCaffrey will have some success on the ground in this game, San Francisco won’t just be able to pound away and pick up huge chunks of yards like it has against other opponents. The 49ers will need to mix in some more passes, which should allow Purdy to clear this mark.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Prediction
The 49ers seem like such a great bet in this game that it’s actually scary. These picks are usually reserved for leans, with us just trying to give you a little something for the biggest games of the week. But I’m personally playing the 49ers at this number. I also don’t think it’s a terrible idea to play San Francisco as a Super Bowl bet before this one. The number should go down a little if the Niners win, as they’ll be in better position to get home-field advantage. And they will have proven they can beat one of the other NFC contenders. I think a lot would have to happen for this San Francisco team to miss out on the Super Bowl. And at +550, you’d be able to hedge pretty nicely as long as the Niners just make it there.
Lean: 49ers -3.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Cowboys vs. 49ers!
