This is a special Sunday for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, as Super Bowl 60 will be the 10th Super Bowl broadcast for VSiN. Our first broadcast – Super Bowl 51 between New England and Atlanta – will be remembered for many things.
The Falcons’ infamous blowing of a 28-3 lead.
Brent Musburger declaring “Turn out the lights folks! The party’s over!” as he donned his trench coat and left the South Point studio at halftime.
For me, it will also be remembered for the Battle of Beantown.
That year, the South Point hung up a cross-sport prop on its menu: Isaiah Thomas points against the Patriots’ point total. They called it the Battle of Beantown.
I laid the three with New England, believing that Thomas would have trouble with my beloved Clippers and that the Patriots would be able to score against the Falcons.
To my surprise, Thomas dropped 28 points that day and Tom Brady only mustered three points through two quarters of play. But, Brady led the comeback and not only did Patriots bettors rejoice, but so too did I as the final touchdown from James White helped cover the number in my prop bet.
Every year I try to include some cross-sport props in my portfolio. They are fun sweats that force you to handicap many different angles. Unfortunately, their popularity is dwindling. This year, only two books in the states – SuperBook & Caesars – provided multiple options for cross-sport bets.
Below are the ones I believe have some value to them. Hopefully they hit in a less dramatic fashion than the Battle of Beantown did that day way back in 2017.
Who Will Have More? Jalen Brunson PTS (-0.5) vs AJ Barner REC YDS
Jalen Brunson is coming off perhaps his worst game as a professional, and certainly his worst in a Knicks’ uniform. The Knicks’ point guard scored just 12 points on 4-of-20 shooting in a 38-point loss to the Pistons on Friday night. It was the second 12-point performance in four games, and the third time Brunson has scored fewer than 20 points in six games.
Brunson has been inefficient and inconsistent since turning his ankle in Sacramento on Jan. 14. In the 10 games since his return he’s averaged 22.6 points on 41.1% shooting from the floor and 31.6% from deep. He has two performances of 30+ points over this span, but he’s also scored fewer than 20 points four times. Prior to the injury Brunson was averaging 28.9 points on a 48.1%/38.9% split.
On the other side, Barner has been quiet in recent weeks. Dating back to Week 18 against the San Francisco 49ers the Seahawks tight end has totaled 27 receiving yards on six targets and four receptions. In the divisional round against the 49ers Barner was not targeted.
Barner could see a reawakening against a New England defense that was very average in defending tight ends during the regular season. It ranked 15th in DVOA when opposing quarterbacks targeted the position and 22nd in yards allowed to tight ends per game (57.8).
Still, Brunson should be the play here for bettors. Despite the season-long numbers, the Patriots’ defense has done well against the tight ends they have faced in the postseason. Dalton Schultz burned them for a 42-yard reception in the divisional round, but in total they have allowed just 10 receptions and 68 yards on all other passes to tight ends this postseason. This goes hand-in-hand with the overall improvement the unit has shown in recent weeks.
More importantly, Brunson might be the only scoring option for New York on Sunday. OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns are all questionable to play. Depending on how the injury report shakes out, an already heavy workload for Brunson could be even heavier, leading to plenty of opportunities for him to put up a big point total, even if it isn’t efficient.
Play: Brunson PTS (-0.5) vs AJ Barner REC YDS
Who Will Have More? Jaylen Brown PTS vs Rhamondre Stevenson RUSH YDS (-19.5)
Rhamondre Stevenson seems to have the absolute trust of his coaching staff heading into Super Bowl 60, and that bodes well for bettors who are looking at him to have a strong day. He played 60 snaps in the AFC Championship Game compared to just four for rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson. In the biggest game of the season we can likely expect a strong workload once again for Stevenson, but what will he do with it?
Seattle is an extremely strong front-seven against the run. It ranks second in adjusted line yards allowed per carry (3.86), seventh in run-stuff rate (20%) and first in both second-level yards allowed per carry (0.94) and open-field yards allowed per carry (0.35). In other words, the Seahawks are efficient in defending the run and they do not allow explosives on the ground. Meanwhile, the Patriots were 20th in the regular season in EPA per rush (-0.03) and 27th in rush success rate (39.27%). Not only could this mean a quiet day for Stevenson, but it could mean Mike Vrabel brings out the more explosive runner in Henderson in an attempt to generate some bigger plays in the run game.
Jaylen Brown has averaged 29.5 points per game this season for Boston. On an average day – Stevenson put up 43.1 yards per game in the regular season – the Patriots’ leading back only has a 13.6-point lead. If Stevenson is stymied by the Seattle front, has his workload cut into or the Patriots get into a negative game-script this is a play on Brown. As stated in the Brunson prop as well, the injury report matters here. If Anunoby does not play, that takes away the leading defender the Knicks have for Brown.
Play: Brown PTS (+19.5) vs Stevenson RUSH YDS
Who Will Have More? Clippers/Timberwolves Total Points (-4.5) vs Drake Maye PASS YDS
There is quite a bit of noise in this prop due to the changes on the Clippers’ roster in recent days. James Harden and Ivica Zubac have been traded, and Los Angeles’ rotation is completely different. In the four games since losing Harden the Clippers are averaging only 112.7 points per 100 possessions – the Pelicans are 25th on the season with 112.3 for context – and Zubac was the team’s premier defender and rim-protector. Of the two, Harden’s loss has been the most dramatic in a small sample size, and that could loom large against the Timberwolves.
Minnesota is up to eighth in defensive efficiency in non-garbage time this season (113.3). With Rudy Gobert on the floor the team allows 108.8 points per 100 possessions. Opponents get just 29.6% of their shots at the rim in those minutes, and they shoot just 64.4%. Los Angeles has next to no presence in the restricted area on offense without Harden. In this game, their offense could be a disjointed mess once again, leading to a lower-scoring loss in a contest with a total of 226.5 at most shops as of Saturday night.
The problem in feeling comfortable in a side with this prop is Drake Maye’s recent performances. In the postseason the MVP runner-up has been a completely different quarterback. Maye has completed 55.8% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt and 177.7 yards per game. He’s also thrown two picks and committed five turnover-worthy plays. If this trend continues, can bettors trust he will do enough to put forth a competitive stat line that will be on par with an NBA game total?
As someone who believes the Patriots will be on the wrong side of a lopsided affair, I lean toward Maye here. There is a reality in which this offense becomes a one-dimensional attack that relies completely on their signal-caller to move the football. A cold running attack with a deficit should lean toward a high yardage game through the air for Maye and allow bettors to get inside this number.
Play: Maye PASS YDS (+4.5) vs Clippers/Timberwolves Total Points
