Super Bowl Best Bets

Here are my Super Bowl best bets for this Sunday’s NFL finale.

San Francisco 49ers -125 First Half Money Line

The 49ers led at the half in 13 of their 17 regular season games (13-3-1) but trailed at the half two weeks ago vs. Detroit and only led by 1 against Green Bay as near double-digit favorites.

 

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It is human nature for bettors to bet what they saw last, and what they saw were the Chiefs winning two straight playoff games on the road as underdogs while the 49ers had to come back from deficits in the second half in consecutive playoff games.

Kyle Shanahan is considered one of the better opening script coaches in the league, while the Chiefs, especially Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, are as good as it gets at making in-game adjustments.

San Francisco has had a couple of scares this postseason, so it is easy to see why much of the sentiment has gravitated toward the Chiefs. Plus, there is the “can’t bet against Mahomes as an underdog (I used that last year).”

Credit a championship-caliber team like Kansas City for taking advantage of two banged-up defenses in Miami and Buffalo (especially at linebacker and off the edge. They do not have that luxury in this game.

Many expect Brock Purdy to be a bit nervous early as he seemed to be against the Packers and the Lions. I expect the opposite. To some degree, the pressure is actually off because he and his team are now here in the big game. Purdy and the running game should be sharp early and get the lead.

Deebo Samuel Over 2.5 Rushing Attempts (-160)

Samuel’s average rushing attempts per game have dropped from 3.7 per game in 2021 to 3.2 last season and a further decline to just 2.5 this season. Obviously, this is largely due to the arrival of Christian McCaffrey in the middle of the 2022 season.

It was rumored in the spring of 2022 that Deebo requested a trade largely due to his higher usage as a running back. However, contract incentives regarding running back usage were included, and they came to a deal.

Kyle Shanahan has said throughout the year that they will continue to use Samuel out of the backfield, but only in the games that matter more. Well, what game matters more than Super Bowl LVIII?

While some of it is by design, the Chiefs rate 27th in Rush Defense DVOA. The 49ers will not be the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. They will look to run the ball early and often mainly with McCaffrey (and Purdy can certainly make plays with his legs). However, this could also be a game where Deebo Samuel sees more carries as the Chiefs do not give up much down the field (5th Pass Defense DVOA).

If you take out the Divisional Playoff Game against Green Bay, where he injured his shoulder, Samuel has had three or more carries in 6 of 6 full playoff games with the 49ers, including the NFC Championship Game vs. Detroit, where he was returning just one week after the shoulder injury.

Distance of Longest Punt Over 56.5 Yards (-130)

Allegiant Stadium is an enclosed venue and 2,000 feet above sea level, so it is a very good environment for kickers and punters. 

49ers P Mitch Wishnowsky played two games this year in permanently enclosed stadiums. He kicked a 67-yarder at SoFi Stadium and a 62-yarder at U.S. Bank Stadium. 

Chiefs P Tommy Townsend played games in the same two stadiums and kicked a 61-yarder at SoFi and a 58-yarder in Minneapolis. Plus, he had a 68-yarder at the retractable-roofed Deutsche Bank Park in the game held in Frankfurt, Germany. 

Both these coaches are still more “old school” than “new school” and are willing to play a more traditional field position game, and both these punters will have opportunities.

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