Super Bowl Best Bets to Upset the Chiefs:

It’s obviously tempting to envision the Chiefs as a dynasty in the making. Tom Brady and the Patriots are in the past, and Patrick Mahomes’ time is now and in the future. With three Super Bowl wins in six years as a starting quarterback, Mahomes is on a fast track.

Two of Kansas City’s recent titles came at the expense of the San Francisco 49ers, including a 25-22 overtime win in Las Vegas in February.

 

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So it’s no surprise which two teams top the Super Bowl futures board this season — the Chiefs (+500) and 49ers (+550), according to odds at Circa Sports.

“It’s just so hard to three-peat, and there could be some complacency as the back-to-back champions,” Red Rock sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Mahomes wants to be like Brady and win more Super Bowls, but the AFC is a much tougher road. In the NFC, it looks like it’s the 49ers and everyone else.”

It’s rarely as easy as it seems on paper in August. Objects in the rear-view mirror are closer than they appear, right? The 49ers needed some luck against Green Bay and Detroit to survive last season’s road to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs had to go through Buffalo and Baltimore to get to Vegas.

Mahomes was forced to overcome halftime deficits — 10 points against Philadelphia in 2023 and seven points against San Francisco this year — to win the past two Super Bowls. He also had to come back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the 49ers for his first title in 2020.

As of now, the value on Super Bowl futures is not with the Chiefs or 49ers. It’s no problem for bookmakers to take plenty of action on the favorites at low odds. Sharp bettors should be thinking about beating the favorites with longer shots at double-digit odds, and here are my five best bets:

Philadelphia Eagles (14-1)

The first step for Philadelphia is to win the division. On May 1, I played the Eagles at +135 to win the NFC East, but that price has flipped to the -120 range. This team is loaded and set to take the next steps for another Super Bowl run, so this is my best bet.

Jalen Hurts is the real deal. Two years ago, the Eagles’ quarterback emerged as an MVP candidate by accounting for 35 total touchdowns while posting a 14-1 record as a starter. He led Mahomes 24-14 at halftime of Super Bowl LVII. Mahomes worked his magic, of course, and the rest was history. Last season resulted in a hangover for Hurts and a team that fell apart down the stretch.

After hitting a speed bump, Philadelphia can return to its 2022 form. The Eagles had a significantly productive offseason by adding running back Saquon Barkley, improving the defensive secondary and strengthening the coaching staff with new coordinators Vic Fangio (defense) and Kellen Moore (offense). All of the changes, except for the retirement of center Jason Kelce, are for the better.

“We have seen a lot of sharp money on the Eagles, and I can see why,” Esposito said.

Cincinnati Bengals (12-1)

Only two quarterbacks have knocked off Mahomes in the postseason in Kansas City — Brady in 2019 and Joe Burrow in 2022 — and both games were decided in overtime. Burrow and the Bengals lost their next game, a Super Bowl thriller against the Rams. Burrow probably remains the biggest threat to Mahomes in the AFC.

Cincinnati is the top candidate to climb the ladder from worst to first in any division this season. The Bengals, off of a 9-8 finish, get a last-place schedule that will help their ascent in the chase for home-field advantage. Burrow appears to be fully recovered from a season-ending wrist injury, and he seems ready to turn the clock back to 2022, when Cincinnati finished 12-4 and won the AFC North by 2.5 games over Baltimore.

Detroit Lions (12-1)

I’m not completely buying into Detroit as a potential Super Bowl champ. It’s one of those cases where I need to see coach Dan Campbell and quarterback Jared Goff get the Lions over the top before I’ll believe it. The NFC title game in San Francisco was an epic collapse. So while I’m not making this bet, many others are making the bet.

“The most (Super Bowl) tickets are on the 49ers and the third-most tickets are on the Chiefs,” Esposito said. “The second-most tickets are on the Lions.”

Similar to the Chiefs and Eagles, the Lions have an offensive line that ranks among the NFL’s elite, and that’s a solid foundation for a title team. I do give Detroit a slightly better shot than the Packers (18-1), so the Lions make this list.

New York Jets (20-1)

One New York team has legitimate title hopes, and it’s definitely not the Giants. The Jets are hoping for much better injury luck this season after Aaron Rodgers’ first season with the team ended disastrously in Week 1. At 40, Rodgers remains an elite quarterback, and he’s behind a stronger line and supported by plenty of playmakers, such as running back Breece Hall and wideout Garrett Wilson.

Rodgers has not returned to the Super Bowl since winning it with the Packers in 2011. If he gets there again, the New York defense will be a big reason. The Jets ranked No. 3 in total defense last season, allowing 292 yards per game, and the defense will be elite again this season. I bet the Jets at +210 to win the AFC East largely due to the defense.

The strength of the AFC makes the Jets a risky bet, but I would rather take a shot with Rodgers than with teams like the Bills, Dolphins, Ravens and Texans.

Los Angeles Rams (30-1)

Matthew Stafford and the Rams beat Burrow and the Bengals 23-20 for the title in 2022, and the Rams should be good enough to make the 49ers sweat in the NFC West. I bet both Los Angeles teams Over 8.5 wins, but the Chargers’ challenging path in the AFC makes the Super Bowl an unrealistic goal.

“The Rams have a top-five offense and a top-five head coach in Sean McVay,” said handicapper Jeff Petch, who won last season’s Circa Friday Football Invitational. “Stafford, in my opinion, is the best quarterback in the NFC.”

DraftKings offers the best number on the Rams, much better than the 23-1 at Circa. It’s always important to shop for the best price and find the teams with the most realistic shot to beat the favorites.

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