Super Bowl LIX Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

We have made it through another NFL season and are just days away from a very intriguing Super Bowl LIX matchup between the Chiefs and the Eagles. Let’s start by looking at the side and total and then jump into props!

 

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1; 48.5)

The Chiefs remain the toughest team in the league to properly power rank. Specifically, their offense is the volatile side of the ball this season, with mainly down performances. The AFC title game showed what this Kansas City offense could be. They averaged close to seven yards per play and were efficient in the Red Zone. Even while struggling through parts of the season, they have cut down on the turnovers. Their botched handoff versus the Bills is the only turnover the Chiefs surrendered since early November.

This Eagles defense will be quite the challenge for Mahomes and company. They play a style that has caused issues for Mahomes in the past. They should be able to create pressure with their front four and play Quarters or Cover 6 behind. Both of those styles of defense have been an issue for Mahomes, and Vic Fangio-led defenses have been great against the Chiefs in the red zone in eight prior meetings.

To have success, Kansas City will have to attack the middle of the field out of two tight end sets, looking at you, Noah Gray, and win quickly on the outside.

When the Eagles have the ball, they should use a heavy dose of the run game. Due to Hurts’ knee injury, I expect an abundance of Barkley carries to try to force the Chiefs to bring the safeties into the box. While the Chiefs were excellent against the run early in the season, top 5 though 11 weeks, they have struggled since. In both playoff games, the Texans and Bills were able to get what they wanted on the ground with worse offensive lines and a worse running back.

That offensive line will be under the microscope for Philadelphia, which has multiple injuries coming into the game. Both Jurgens and Dickerson missed time in the NFC title game, but they are expected to play on Sunday. If they leave at some point, that would be a big edge to the Chiefs.

As you can tell from the write-up above, the Eagles are the better team on paper. The real advantages for the Chiefs come in two areas: coaching and intangibles. They have been the “worse” team on paper in both Super Bowl wins the last two years, last week vs. the Bills and last year versus the Bills and Ravens and yet they won all of those games. Spagnuolo and Reid are elite coaches, and they always seem to execute when they must.

I expect the Eagles to take money into the game on Sunday. If you like them, bet Philly now. If you like the Chiefs, I’d wait until Sunday. I have a lean to the Chiefs, but with so many props available, I’m not going to go crazy on the side.

I did bet the game Under. Both defenses have been solid throughout the season, and when these teams do struggle, it’s on the offense side of the ball.

Super Bowl LIX Best Bets – Lean Chiefs, Bet Under 48.5

Prop Plays

Let’s rip through the props that I already have in the account:

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 completions
Kareem Hunt Over 10.5 carries
Isiah Pacheco Under 9.5 Longest Run
Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 and 6.5 rush yards
Jalen Hurts Under 214.5 passing yards
Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 reception yards
Hollywood Brown Over 4.5 Q1 rec yards
Saquon Barkley Over 22.5 carries

Now, let’s add some additional props!

Jalen Hurts 2+ Touchdowns +500
Everyone is betting on Barkley to score touchdowns, but it’s Hurts who is the value in this game. We all know about the brotherly shove, and no one has been able to stop it. I don’t expect that the Chiefs will have an answer. Hurts also gets designed runs in the red zone, which adds to his TD equity.

Noah Gray Over 11.5 Rec Yards
Every week, Kansas City designs their offense to attack the opposing defense’s weakness. If that is the case, then expect the Chiefs to run two tight end sets and attack the middle of the field. That has been the lone weakness all season for this Eagles D. That plays into Noah Gray being on the field and running more routes. Against a similar defense in the divisional round. Gray caught three passes for 13 yards. I expect him to be a larger part of the offense than we saw against Buffalo.

For more Super Bowl analysis, visit the Super Bowl Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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