Super Bowl LIX Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my best bets for Super Bowl LIX:

 

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Kansas City Chiefs ML -120

It’s been said a thousand times, but betting on Patrick Mahomes when all he has to do is simply win a football game has been a profitable strategy, albeit not a profound one. The Eagles are an outstanding team, but their path to this game required them to only beat the 7, 6, and 4 seeds, respectively in the NFC. Also, in their first two playoff games, they were played pretty evenly on the stat sheet. They were outgained in both games, and both games were dead even in yards per play. In the blowout of the Commanders, the Eagles were +4 in turnovers, +10 overall for the postseason. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off of a game where, despite all of the controversy about the refs, there were five fumbles- and the Bills recovered all five. The Chiefs also took a knee at the end of the game as they were about to score again if they needed to, so they beat the Bills more convincingly than the scoreboard indicates. In what should be a close game, the Chiefs have a kicker who’s been outstanding throughout his career in clutch situations with Harrison Butker, while Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has missed four kicks this postseason, and he has missed a kick in every playoff game so far this year.  In a close game, I’ll go with the trio of Mahomes, Reid, and Butker over what the Eagles have to offer.

Will Both Teams Score In 1st Quarter – NO -128 (FanDuel)

I like the “NO” here because the team that kicks off may only get one possession in the first quarter if the drives are long and time-consuming, which I think is possible with this matchup. The Super Bowl is typically slow-starting for the offenses, as teams tend to come out tight and looking to avoid a costly mistake early on. With the first quarter total lined at 9.5, you can even have a scenario where one team goes up 10-0 or 14–0, and the over hits, but the “NO” still cashes. Also, In the first quarter, there is no “two-minute warning,” so the clock moves faster, and there isn’t a rush from the team with the ball to score before the quarter ends, unlike the second and fourth quarters. 

Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 receiving yards (FanDuel)

This is a popular one, which makes me nervous, but the Chiefs’ struggles defending tight ends have been well-documented, and I don’t expect those concerns to go away against an Eagles team that has so many other weapons to threaten the defense with. We’ve seen Raiders’ tight end Brock Bowers go for 140 yards against the Chiefs,  the Ravens’ Isiah Likely go for 111, and now they face an Eagles team that has Saquon Barkley to command so much attention from defenses. The middle of the field could once again be a place to attack the Chiefs on Sunday. The Over on Goedert was a play for me a few weeks back in the NFC Title game against the Commanders, and he soared over his projections with seven catches for 85 yards. I’ll go back to the well here expecting a big game from Goedert. 

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