Super Bowl LIX Best Bets:

Super Bowl LIX between the Chiefs and Eagles isn’t the only thing that we are talking about on air this week, but it is certainly dominating the discussion. Our hosts are busy putting together their favorite Super Bowl LIX best bets, whether that means a prop, side or total wager, or something else.

We’ll be updating this article throughout the week as hosts submit their best bets, so bookmark this page and be sure to check back early and often.

 

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Note: All host picks are listed in alphabetical order by last name. Current hosts/contributors so far are Josh Appelbaum, Kelley Bydlon, Dave Ross, Tyler Shoemaker, Mike Somich, Dustin Swedelson with more to come!

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Super Bowl LIX Matchup

Super Bowl LIX Best Bets

Super Bowl LIX Betting Splits

Super Bowl LIX Best Bets from VSiN Hosts/Contributors

Josh Appelbaum

Chiefs Moneyline -125

Kansas City opened as a short 1-point or 1.5-point favorite. All movement and liability has been on the Chiefs as the market has settled on Kansas City -1.5. However, several shops are juicing up Chiefs -1.5 (-115) and some books even touched -2 at times over the past week. We have yet to see this line fall down to -1. Reading between the lines, it appears as though the books have taken a position on Kansas City as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor. At Circa, the Chiefs are only getting 52% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of Pros in the desert backing Kansas City.

Mahomes is 16-0 straight up as a favorite this season. He is 95-22 (81%) straight up in his career as a favorite, including 13-3 (81%) straight up as a favorite in the postseason. Mahomes is also a perfect 8-0 against teams featuring Vic Fangio as their head coach or defensive coordinator. 

Aside from the market movement, bet split and historical data, I also refuse to bet against Mahomes. I made the mistake of taking the Eagles against the Chiefs two years ago in the Super Bowl. Since that time, I vowed to never bet against Mahomes in a big game again and, up until this point, it’s been an undefeated strategy. I took the Chiefs in last year’s big game against the 49ers and again in this year’s AFC Championship game against the Bills. 

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. 

PS: I’m a big proponent of moneylining short favorites instead of laying the points. Yes, you are paying a few more cents in terms of juice, but if the Chiefs win by one-point you cash your moneyline bet instead of losing if you’re laying -1.5.

Kelley Bydlon 

Patrick Mahomes To Win MVP +120 

If you like the Chiefs side, this makes too much sense. You’re getting 40+ cents better than the Chiefs moneyline for a guy we’ve seen voters rush to give this to three times already. I think it’s a smart play whether it’s a bet instead of the Chiefs ML, or if you want to add to your Chiefs positions.

Kareem Hunt Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush Under 8.5 yards (-105)

Both of these are kinda correlated to me. It’s become pretty clear that Isiah Pacheco is still working back from his injury and Kareem Hunt is the more reliable back right now. Pacheco’s workload has only been getting lower in the playoffs. He’s had a total of 10 carries for 30 yards in the Chiefs’ two games. I expect Hunt to get the bulk of carries for KC.

Dave Ross 

Isiah Pacheco Over 1.5 Catches (+185)

Couldn’t pass this up. And something Mark Dominik brought to my attention on By The Books. 

Kareem Hunt is clearly the No. 1. But, as Pacheco is finally rounding back into full-speed game shape, he’s become the “forgotten man”. Not by Andy Reid nor Mahomes. Even in his scaled down role, he still got two catches vs. Buffalo in the AFC title game. I could easily see his role increased ever so slightly in the final game of the year and hopefully used in space as the Chiefs love to utilize the screen game.

Tyler Shoemaker

Eagles Team Total Over 23.5

After dropping a 50-burger on Washington in the NFC Championship game, this offense with Saquon Barkley looks nearly unstoppable right now. My T Shoe Index is comprised of multiple facets of a team’s performance throughout the season, and takes an average of season-long metrics with a team’s last few games. That said, the Eagles’ numbers, no matter which way you slice them, indicate they should get Over this 23.5-point line against a stout KC defense. The only reason I’m not giving out Eagles +1.5 is because it’s tough to bet against a Mahomes-led team in the Super Bowl, but I think Hurts, Barkley and the Eagles can at least hang some points on them to make Pat sweat a little bit.

Mike Somich

Xavier Worthy Over 5.5 Rush Yards

Two key stats support this play. First, Andy Reid has now called a run play for a non-RB or QB in twenty straight playoff games. It’s highly likely that this will be 21 straight games after the Super Bowl and Worthy is likely to get that carry. Secondly, in the 18 Chiefs games this season, excluding the final week vs. Denver, Worthy has gotten at least one carry in 15 of those games and at least two carries in six of those. Four of those six multi-carry games have come in the last five weeks. He’s eclipsed the six-yard mark in nine of those 18 games. Let’s jump on the Over.

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Completions

Unlike past years, the Chiefs do not have a consistent run game to lean on and the Eagles have a stout front seven that should be able to keep Kansas City in check on the ground. That means Mahomes will have to attack through the air against a two-high safety look while the Eagles rush their front four. We have seen Mahomes and Reid prepare against these defenses for years and it has consistently meant a dink and dunk style of offense that focused on short passes.

Shorter passes should lead to a higher completion percentage and a likelihood that Mahomes goes Over this number.

Isiah Pacheco Under 9.5 Longest Rush

Let’s just call it the way it is, Pacheco is not close to 100% off his earlier knee injury. He recorded just five carries in both playoff games and has clearly become the No. 2 in the Chiefs backfield behind Kareem Hunt. He has a 10+ yard run in just three of the nine games that he has played in this season and will face a tough defense in the Super Bowl with limited run opportunities.

Saquon Barkley Over 22.5 Carries

The Eagles will see on tape that this once vaunted Chiefs run defense has fallen back down to earth since Week 12. They allowed Houston to run the ball in the Divisional Round and the Bills in the AFC Title game. Philly has been content to win games on the ground and with their defense all season. I expect more of the same here. Expect a heavy dose of Barkley early and often.

Dustin Swedelson

Dallas Goedert Over 50.5 Receiving Yards

The Eagles receiving options have gone through trials and tribulations this season. The one consistent piece of late has been Dallas Goedert. Including the playoffs, he has cleared this number in three of his last four games and now faces a Kansas City defense that has been generous to tight ends all season long. The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to TEs in the regular season at 70.59 yards per contest. Seven of the last eight TEs to take on KC’s defense, that had this prop offered (Broncos TE Nate Adkins did not) have cleared their receiving yard total, averaging 56.75 yards per game.

MVP: CJ Gardner-Johnson 250/1

Patrick Mahomes threw 11 interceptions this season. Seven of Mahomes’ INTs this year were intended for a TE, with four going to Travis Kelce. I think Gardner-Johnson gets the Kelce assignment and, if the Eagles front can pressure Mahomes into an errant pass or two in his direction, a big turnover or two could jump off the page to voters in what I expect to be a low-scoring game. CGJ could wind up with a Larry Brown/Super Bowl XXX like performance. 

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