Super Bowl LIX:

After 272 regular season games and 12 playoff games, we have two teams left standing for Super Bowl LIX. The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will play in the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. For the Chiefs, this is their fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last six years. For the Eagles, it will be their third in the last eight years.

Super Bowl LIX takes place on Sunday, February 9 in New Orleans, so we’ll have a lot of time to think about this game and dissect it from various angles. We’ve had a lot of time to dissect the Chiefs in this game, but this is just the second time we’ll see the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles in the biggest game of the season.

 

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It promises to be an exciting game, even with some Chiefs fatigue out there in the fan and betting communities. But, we’re here to talk about the odds, so let’s do precisely that with this opening line report.

Here is the Super Bowl LIX Odds Opening Line Report:

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 49.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, February 9, 6:30 p.m. ET

A rematch of Super Bowl LVII is in store for Super Bowl LIX as the Chiefs and Eagles battle it out. Back in that game on February 12, 2023, we saw the Eagles close -1.5 and it was Kansas City that won 38-35 in a game that soared well over the 51.5 total.

The lookahead hypothetical number for this matchup was primarily -1 or -1.5, so we haven’t seen much of a deviation based on the early positions being taken by both the bettors and the books. The total is up a little bit from where it was originally set around 47.5 or 48, which is understandable given that both conference championship games flew over the total by leaps and bounds. The Eagles went over the total themselves in their 55-23 win over the Commanders.

Both home teams and favorites won and covered to set up this matchup, so it makes sense that the spread didn’t move around a whole lot. What’s interesting about the Super Bowl is that a lot of people lay the spread with the favorite, but will just go ahead and bet the underdog moneyline. Whatever spread movement we see is likely to be fairly nominal in nature, but we are definitely going to see a more depressed underdog moneyline than normal. The Chiefs were -125 at most shops as of Sunday night, but this could be a situation where you can get a little bit of a discount on them due to Philly ML exposure at plus money.

This line is up for a long time. Every talking head will have an opinion that they share multiple times over in the 13ish days leading up to this game. A little bit of Super Bowl fatigue sets in by the time this one actually kicks off, but all of the time for this line to marinate is going to produce some rather interesting intricacies. Sharp groups will massage the number as much as they can to get target prices on the side, total, and moneyline.

But, more importantly, the prop catalogs are going to be what gets hit heavily. Prop betting is so commonplace now that the release of prop lines isn’t as celebrated as it once was, but those are going to draw a tremendous amount of handle for the sportsbooks. Everybody will have opinions on Saquon Barkley, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Xavier Worthy, and everybody else involved in the game.

So, this is a really unique betting event with two weeks to be up and take a ton of action as the largest standalone betting event in the world. And the irony is that the side and total are unlikely to move a whole lot. We’ll see a lot of public betting action towards the Over, as recreational bettors want to root for points. The mystery is whether or not we see the sharp money come in on the Under or not. We don’t have a regular season data point to refer to, unlike what we had for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

To me, the thing to watch the closest with the traditional wagering markets is the moneyline like I said earlier. Other than that, just expect a ton of prop betting action on this game, including some of the more fun cross-sport props and the entertainment props in states and jurisdictions where those are available.

Bookmark the Super Bowl LIX Chiefs vs. Eagles Hub to get all of the Big Game NFL betting content!

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