Super Bowl MVP:

One of the most popular betting markets at this time of the year is Super Bowl MVP. Everybody dreams of hitting the long shot at a big price, but it really doesn’t work out that way more often than not. Not only are the Chiefs going for the first three-peat in NFL history, but Patrick Mahomes is going for his own personal three-peat as the game’s headline player.

That follows a longstanding trend with Super Bowl MVPs. In 58 Super Bowls, a quarterback has won MVP 33 times. In recent history, 13 of the last 17 Super Bowl MVPs have been the quarterback of the winning team. Chuck Howley (Super Bowl V) is the only MVP from the losing team.

 

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And, yet, we have a real challenger on the Eagles side in Saquon Barkley. Barkley is running up against a whole lot of Super Bowl history to win the award, but if Philly is going to lift the Lombardi, he’s going to have to be THE factor, right?

Patrick Mahomes (+120)

Mahomes has three Super Bowl MVPs in five years. The Chiefs have three Super Bowl wins in five years. Many, myself included, believe that Damien Williams should have been the Super Bowl LIV MVP, but many of the votes were cast and counted before his 38-yard TD rush with 1:12 left.

Here are the stat lines from Mahomes’ three MVP games:

LIV (2020): 26-of-42, 286 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks, 9 carries, 29 yards, 1 TD

LVII (2023 – vs. Eagles): 21-of-27, 182 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 6 carries, 44 yards

LVIII (2024): 34-of-46, 333 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks, 9 carries, 66 yards

Williams in the first one is really the only offensive player who had a stat line capable of beating out Mahomes. Travis Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a TD in LVII and nine catches for 90 yards with no TD in LVIII. Isiah Pacheco hasn’t had the numbers. In the last two Super Bowls, low-volume players like Marques Valdez-Scantling and Kadarius Toney have hawked a TD.

If the Chiefs win, it is likely to be Mahomes again, unless Kelce (+1500) has a good stat line and gets rewarded for his lifetime achievements. Also, a TE has never won Super Bowl MVP, a good storyline for voters on deadlines to write about. Oh, yeah, and he’s dating somebody kind of famous.

Mahomes is an alternate way to bet the Chiefs moneyline at -120. It is not a given that Mahomes wins the MVP if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, but based on the history of the award and the position it goes to, there are very few paths to victory for KC that don’t feature Mahomes as the primary reason why.

Saquon Barkley (+260)

Had the 49ers been able to win Super Bowl LVIII, Christian McCaffrey would have broken a long drought for running backs. A running back has not won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis back in Super Bowl XXXII. That’s 32 for those of you like me who struggle with roman numerals.

1998 was a long time ago. In that span, we’ve seen four defensive players and five wide receivers take home the hardware. If anybody is going to break the streak, though, it is Barkley, who ran for over 2,000 yards and has rushed for 442 yards with five touchdowns in three playoff games.

Volume is usually a problem for running backs in the Super Bowl. Many Super Bowl participants have some kind of timeshare at running back or the game features long possessions that limit the number of drives. The Eagles ran the ball 621 times this season, with 345 of those from Barkley. Philly had the most rush attempts for an NFL team since the 1984 Chicago Bears.

Again, you have to keep in mind that you are betting on a human voting body. Viewers’ ballots make up 20% of the vote. The other 80% belongs to the media panel of 16 writers.

Much like my Mahomes argument, if the Eagles win, it is hard to see the path to victory without Saquon having a monster game.

Jalen Hurts (+350)

It is not a thin limb to go out on to say that Hurts is the only other really viable MVP candidate. In our Super Bowl Betting Guide, 11 of those who picked the Eagles to win took Barkley for MVP. Hurts got three votes. Dallas Goedert got one.

Teams attempt to scheme against the run against the Eagles and fail miserably. If the Chiefs don’t fail, the spotlight really shifts to Hurts. He’s a dual-threat guy capable of scoring rushing touchdowns. After all, he had 14 and Barkley had 13 during the regular season. Hurts also hung an 18/5 TD/INT ratio. Sometimes simply not turning the ball over with a couple of touchdown passes is enough to bring home the MVP.

Mix in a rushing score and Hurts could be right there. Barkley could have the yardage, but that number in the TD column matters a lot. And, as we know, there’s a clear QB bias in this award. At some point, Hurts will have to make a play. If Hurts makes a lot of plays, then the Eagles are having success and he’ll be right there in the voting.

I wouldn’t say that Hurts is a “better” bet than Barkley, but with the history of the award and the ball in his hands on every single offensive play, that’s the way I’d go.

Long Shots?!

Are there any Super Bowl MVP long shots to think about? Honestly, I would say no. I don’t think another player has the capability to dominate the box score the way that one of these three can. Kelce and Xavier Worthy are likely to share targets, receptions, and yardage and all of that comes from Mahomes.

I can’t see a scenario where the Chiefs have enough coverage breakdowns for A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith to go off to a degree that wins MVP. I don’t think any defensive players do either.

Hurts has only thrown five picks and four came in the first three weeks of the season. Mahomes threw a bunch of picks early, but he’s thrown two interceptions in his last 11 and they both came in the same game.

Personally, I think it’s hard to see a path to anybody outside of these three guys.

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