NFL First Touchdown
The Super Bowl LX matchup features one of the league’s top teams when it comes to scoring the first touchdown of the game and one that has scored the first TD in less than half of their games. Playing from in front in a game of this magnitude seems like a pretty big deal, but it hasn’t really bothered the Patriots to play catch-up, seeing as how they are 9/20 scoring the first TD to this point and find themselves in the same position as the Seahawks, who have scored first in 14/19 games.
Before getting to this matchup specifically, let’s get some housekeeping done from the conference championship round and put a bow on all of the numbers to this point. Here’s what we saw in the AFC and NFC Championship Games.
QB: 1 (NE) (2)
RB: 2 (SEA, LAR) (5)
WR: 1 (DEN) (10)
TE: 0 (2)
D/ST: 0 (1)
No TD: 0 (3)
Other: 0 (1)
The number in parentheses is the number of first TDs by position in the postseason as a whole. Prior to the Wild Card Weekend, I finished calculating the regular season and I’ll list it here again so we can file it away from the next season. QBs had 36. RBs had 176. WRs had 187. TEs had 82. D/STs had 26. No TDs 36. And then one first team TD from an offensive lineman, which would have been a refund at the sportsbook with none of those guys listed.
You can check out the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker to see everybody’s 2025 results. I mentioned it already, but we have two teams left standing and here’s what they’ve done:
| Playoff teams | First TD of game/games played | Success rate |
| Seahawks | 14/19 | 73.7% |
| Patriots | 9/20 | 45% |
It should be said that the Patriots scored first in six of the last seven regular season games and the first two postseason games, so they got a lot better as the season went along. So, you have to ask yourself if you like the larger sample size or the smaller sample size that may not be as stable, but could arguably be more relevant based on the timing.
There’s a lot more cool stuff in the First Touchdown Tracker, including all the guys with 3+ TDs. That’s a consideration for me in my handicapping, especially when you consider Zach Charbonnet actually led the Seahawks with five first team TDs this season and he’s not going to be playing here.
I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Super Bowl LX and FTD Rates from 2025
Seahawks (73.7%) vs. Patriots (45%) – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Usually I pick the better team as a results-based handicap, but with only one game here, I’ll look at a couple of players for each team, even though I would expect the Seahawks to score first.
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
Super Bowl LX First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Seahawks: Kenneth Walker +370, Cooper Kupp +1300
Yeah, I know. There doesn’t need to be a big, long handicap or a giant touchdown tracker to pick these two guys. But, let’s be honest, there is an overwhelming likelihood that one of these two or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500) scores the first touchdown. Walker has played 75 snaps in the postseason and has 45 touches with 38 carries and seven receptions. When he’s on the field, he gets the ball and he should be on the field a lot here.
Even though I initially put JSN here, Kupp’s price at 2.5x is worth the dice roll. He’s got nine catches on 11 targets in the postseason here. Yes, I know JSN had more than that on his own in the game against the Rams. Three different WR caught TD passes for the Seahawks in that game and, theoretically, better teams with better players have a better chance at slowing down a team’s WR1. Kupp only had 70 targets over 16 regular season games, so he’s seen a higher target share in the playoffs so far than he did over the regular season.
I should also point out that the Patriots defense has allowed 13 passing TD in the first half to just four rushing TD, so it’s also reasonable to just take JSN and Kupp and hope for the best.
Patriots: DeMario Douglas +3000, Austin Hooper +3500
I hope Josh McDaniels is going to be creative because the Seahawks are as stingy as it gets. During the regular season, they only allowed eight passing TD and seven rushing TD over the first three quarters. The Patriots did have 21 pass TD to 12 rush TD in the first half on offense, so that’s probably the way to look here.
I’ll take some risks here because the target distribution is so much more spread out for this team. Here’s an interesting factoid from the season – Douglas has four TD catches throughout the regular season and postseason. All four of them have been the team’s first TD. Same with Hooper, who has two TD catches and both have been the team’s first TD.
A lot has been made of Seattle’s struggles covering tight ends, as they allowed the fifth-most receptions during the regular season, so why not show some double TE sets with Hunter Henry and Hooper, where more attention is likely paid to the more productive player in Henry. With Douglas, he’s a small guy who could easily sneak across the field or across a formation on a misdirection type of play and get lost by a player who blows his assignment. With spies on Maye as a runner, I’m speculating that this could work out.
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