Super Bowl Prop Bets
These Super Bowl prop bets appeared in the VSiN Super Bowl LX Betting Guide and are listed alphabetically by VSiN host/expert. Odds current at time of submission.
Kelley Bydlon
Drake Maye Over 36.5 Rushing Yards
Maye has exceeded this mark in two of the three playoff games, and he also did so in five regular season starts. The quarterback run has been a confident option for the Patriots and I don’t expect it to stop on Super Sunday. This bet is also about game state. I expect the Seahawks to be up the majority of the game and the Patriots playing catch up. I think that means less RB carries and a lot of Maye. Now, can the Seattle D hold up? Definitely. They only allowed Over this mark by three quarterbacks this season.
Wes Reynolds
Drake Maye Over 36.5 Rushing Yards
Maye’s rushing numbers in the AFC Championship Game (10 carries, 65 yards, TD) were likely somewhat weather-predicated, but consider he also ran 10 times for 66 yards in the Wild Card Round vs. the Chargers.
His designed run attempts have doubled since the late-season bye in Week 14, plus he is likely to be scrambling a great deal more against this Seattle defense that ranks third in Pressure Rate.
Mike Somich
Sam Darnold 230+ Passing, 2+ TDs +164
One of the advantages that the Pats do possess is being able to slow down the running game, as evident by the drop in the Walker rush yards line. That should translate to the Seahawks opening and leaning on the passing game. This is by far the most dynamic offense the Pats will face in the playoffs in the best weather conditions they will play in. If I like Seattle alt lines, I’m leaning into this passing game as well.
Nick Whalen
Drake Maye Over 30.5 Pass Attempts
Despite finishing the regular season fourth in passing yards, Maye was not an overly high-volume passer, averaging only 28.9 attempts per game. That figure is considerably lower in three postseason games, but the Pats were able to grind out wins on the ground and defensively in adverse weather conditions. Long story short, game flow dictated that Maye wasn’t asked to do much.
Looking at this matchup against Seattle, I don’t foresee New England playing with a comfortable lead and being able to lean on the run, as it did against Houston and, especially, Denver. Seattle is the No. 1 DVOA defense – and rushing EPA defense – in the NFL, so I expect the Seahawks to mostly shut down the Pats’ rushing attack, forcing them to put the ball in the hands of Maye significantly more than they have in the three-game run-up to the Super Bowl.
Matt Youmans
Sam Darnold Over 29.5 Pass Attempts
Darnold’s redemption story is not quite complete, although the Seahawks quarterback is already being hyped as a conquering hero. Not so fast. He’s got to win one more game, and he will have to do it with his arm. New England is rock solid against the run, so coach Mike Vrabel will dare Darnold to beat his defense through the air. It’s a strategy that makes sense for several reasons because the more Darnold throws it, the more likely he is to make mistakes, and he led the league with 20 turnovers in the regular season. The Seattle coaches have confidence in Darnold to let it fly. He had 36 and 34 pass attempts in the past two games against the Rams and will probably need to throw it more than 30 times against the Patriots.
