Super Bowl Rushing Prop Bets
These Super Bowl prop bets appeared in the VSiN Super Bowl LX Betting Guide and are listed alphabetically by VSiN host/expert. Odds current at time of submission.
Adam Burke
Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Reception Over 12.5 Yards
While game state had a lot to do with this, the Seahawks allowed the most receptions to running backs (97) during the regular season and the sixth-most receiving yards. Stevenson was 28th among pass catchers in yards after catch per reception according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Seahawks had 110 missed tackles per PFR during the season and allowed the second-most yards after catch in the league.
Stevenson had seven receptions on eight targets in the first two playoff games, but wasn’t able to link up with Maye in the AFC Championship Game, so I feel like the Patriots may look to use him more in this game as something that perhaps the Seahawks aren’t expecting as much. He’s also gotten a lot more touches and opportunities than TreVeyon Henderson in the playoffs. Stevenson had 37 targets without a drop in the regular season and caught 32 of them, so he’s been a reliable pass catcher when called upon.
Pauly Howard
TREVEYON HENDERSON 50+ YARDS RUSH +675
Ryan Kramer
George Holani Over 9.5 Receiving Yards, Kenneth Walker Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
The Patriots will blitz well because that’s their only move to try to get Sam Darnold off his spot. This will lead to another game where the RBS will be useful in the passing game as the hot read. Walker has gone over in 4 out of the past 5. Holani easily went over in the NFC Championship and was very close to having a HUGE game in the air.
Steve Makinen
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
Despite the fact that the Seahawks’ run defense has been superb this season, I still believe that Patriots’ OC Josh McDaniels is going to lean heavily on his running game on Sunday, and that responsibility has turned almost exclusively into Rhamondre Stevenson’s lately, as he has enjoyed a phenomenal surge in the last season and has earned back the trust of his coaches. My stat forecast for this game calls for New England to get 149.8 yards rushing, which can be argued till we’re blue in the face, since I’m using a formula I have employed rather successfully in each of the last five Super Bowl games. I assume Stevenson will be the beneficiary of most of those yards, and my forecast had him getting 78+.
Aaron Moore
George Holani Over 23.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
Against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, Holani had three catches for 27 yards on four targets. The one that he didn’t catch was set up for a long gainer.
New England’s interior defense has been stout, so Seattle may look for other ways to get its running backs involved. When Zach Charbonnet was healthy, the second running back was a major part of Klint Kubiak’s gameplan. Since that spot now belongs to Holani, who doesn’t have the same season-long stats as Charbonnet, his total here is lower than it should be for that role.
Mitch Moss
TreVeyon Henderson Over 0.5 Receiving Yards
Henderson 5+ Receiving Yards (+112)
Henderson 10+ Receiving Yards (+220)
I might keep climbing the ladder. 20+ is currently +630, and 30+ is at 12/1 as I jot this down. The Seahawks allowed the most receptions in the league to running backs during the regular season. That “weakness” has trickled into the offseason through two games. Christian McCaffrey had five catches for 39 yards in the divisional round; Kyren Williams and Blake Corum followed that up by each recording 20+ yards in the NFC Championship Game.
Here’s the kicker from our buddy Paul Charchian on Follow The Money: 18 out of 19 opposing number two backs have caught at least one pass vs. the Seahawks this year.
Wes Reynolds
TreVeyon Henderson Over 0.5 Receptions
Henderson has failed to go Over his reception total in seven consecutive games dating back to Week 15 vs. Buffalo. Against Denver, he was shut out mainly due to the weather as Mike Vrabel put the ball in the hands of Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson and let them lead the running game in the snow.
Although it is a decent tag on the price, this could be the buy-low for him against a Seattle defense that ranks second in EPA/Play and third in Pressure Rate. Sometimes, Maye will use his legs to avoid the pressure like he did vs. Denver, but Seattle runs predominantly zone coverage and allows the most targets to opposing running backs. Henderson will find some spots for Maye to bail out from the pressure.
Scott Seidenberg
Seahawks RB George Holani Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
We’ve already seen this number bet up from the open of 8.5 to 9.5 and now to 10.5 and even 11.5 in some books. While the Super Bowl is the most efficient market you’re going to find, the value can still lie in the lesser known pieces. The truth is, the books don’t know how to price Holani because we don’t have that many data points. In the NFC Championship Game, filling in for the injured Zach Charbonnet, Holani had three catches on four targets for 27 yards. More important than the production was the opportunities. Holani ran 14 routes in that game. Kenneth Walker, by comparison, ran 15 routes. While Walker’s receiving props have been taxed and taxed, Holani’s haven’t because of the uncertainty of where to start. But for the backup RB who has essentially the same opportunities as the starter to catch a pass, the value is in the lesser yard number with Holani.
Kenneth Walker 2 Touchdowns +300, Kenneth Walker 3 Touchdowns +1500
This is your Kenneth Walker MVP bet, without needing him to win the MVP. Sure, you can take a flyer on Walker to win the award but let me ask you an honest question, what is the likelihood that Walker wins the MVP with only one touchdown? He’d probably need over 150 scrimmage yards and the game to be low scoring. Instead, I’ll take my chances on Walker scoring multiple touchdowns. This way, you have outs. He can score twice or three times and not win MVP, or he does win and you either take a small hit on the price or get a better payout in the event he scores three times.
Dustin Swedelson
Kenneth Walker Over 21.5 Receiving Yards, Super Bowl MVP (+850)
This is a tough running matchup for Walker. But when you look at it from a receiving situation, this could be a good plan of attack for the Seahawks offense. New England finished the regular season fourth against the run, but allowed the sixth-most receptions and were 17th vs. the pass against RBs. In order to stay balanced, Seattle could use Walker as a pass catcher as an extension of the run game. That way Milton Williams and company can’t tee off on Sam Darnold. He has had 49 and 29 receiving yards in two playoff games this run.
With Zach Charbonnet out for the game, I’d expect the goal line work to go to Walker, which is his only path to MVP. If he can score two TDs in a low-scoring game, then he has a chance to win the award. Plus New England’s Achilles heel is their 23rd-ranked red zone defense. Seattle could get down to the red zone and ride him into the end zone. A RB hasn’t won MVP since 1997 and Terrell Davis. But, the path is there for Walker.
Brad Taylor
George Holani Under 11.5 Receiving Yards
Holani finished last week with three receptions for 27 yards, yet his receiving prop is posted at just 11.5 this week. That’s not an overreaction—that’s a correction. This number opened below 10 yards and has only crept up slightly, despite recent box-score production. VSiN OptaAI shows a significant edge on the Under, and the market has consistently agreed.
When the numbers don’t move, believe the numbers—not the narrative. That’s the edge in the Super Bowl, and that’s how I’m attacking it.
Matt Youmans
Kenneth Walker Under 73.5 Rushing Yards
The Darnold prop for pass attempts is tied into this one. The Patriots allowed 48, 79 and 87 yards rushing in the three playoff games — with Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert running for 57 of the 87 in the Wild Card Round. Walker had 19 carries for 62 yards (3.3 yards per carry) against the Rams in the NFC title game, and the New England front seven is stronger against the run than the other defenses Walker has faced in recent weeks. Walker went Over this posted total in only six of 19 games this season.
