Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The Buccaneers are four-time defending NFC South champions heading into the 2024 season. After surprising a lot of people in 2023 by winning the division and winning a playoff game with Cleveland cast-off Baker Mayfield leading the way under center, the Bucs have reloaded the clip for 2024 by signing Mayfield and WR Mike Evans to extensions.

Offense

The Bucs were kind of boom or bust in 2023, ranking 12th in EPA/play but just 27th in Offensive Success Rate (if that isn’t Baker Mayfield summed up in a stat, I don’t know what is). Mayfield threw for over 4,000 yards a year ago and had two 1,000-yard receivers in Evans and Chris Godwin – both of whom return in 2024. How much the passing game will be affected by the loss of OC Dave Canales is a key question.

 

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They didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher, which probably explains the poor success rate stat. That will need to improve if they want to take another step forward. The additions of OL Ben Bredeson and Graham Barton may help.

Defense

Defensively, Tampa was decent last year in the advanced metrics, ranking 18th and 19th in opponent EPA per play and success rate, respectively, but TSI rated them seventh in the NFL in defensive rating – how many points a team is expected to allow versus the average team – due to their ability to still prevent teams from putting points on the board despite the mediocre down-to-down stats.

The back seven took a hit with the losses of CB Carlton Davis III and LB Devin White, but the pass rush may be upgraded with Edges Chris Braswell and Randy Gregory.

Outlook

A veteran-led team, not dissimilar to New Orleans, Tampa Bay is a high-floor football team whose play on both lines is good, which should allow them to stay in playoff contention in 2024. I personally question whether a three-year extension for Mayfield was the smartest thing in the world for them to do, as he hasn’t consistently demonstrated the ability to lead a successful football team, but maybe the change of scenery in Tampa and some maturing on his part will continue to serve him well. 

The Bucs face the 12th-most difficult schedule, per TSI, and have a win total Over/Under of 8.5. TSI projects 8.2 wins so this is another stay-away, but if I had to choose, I would lean Under 8.5 because I would expect some regression offensively and I’m not sure the defense is going to be as fortunate as it was last year in allowing success down-to-down but ultimately keeping teams out of the endzone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Under 8.5 Wins

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