Texans vs. Jets – Thursday Night Football Player Prop Best Bets:

I can’t say I’d love any of these props if this game was on a Sunday, but I can’t sit out for a standalone game. I’m rarely as confident in TNF picks as I am for Sunday selections, but I’m confident enough in these plays to officially make them my Thursday Night Football props. 

Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

It’s not an ideal matchup, but Allen Lazard is out, so that’s one fewer mouth to feed in the passing game. The Texans have allowed the most deep targets in the league (43), so I like Wilson to make a big play or two. I doubt it’ll be Davante Adams making a big play because he looks bad on the Jets and is not separating, which is another reason to back Wilson. This could be close because the Texans have a good pass rush, but I think the Jets D will show up and keep the game under control, and Aaron Rodgers will look to get the ball to Wilson, who can get open quickly against the rush. 

 

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CJ Stroud Under 20.5 Completions

The Jets are allowing only 17 completions per game in their last four, and Stroud just lost Stefon Diggs, who has hauled in over 25% of Stroud’s passes this year and was a key moveable chess piece in the offense. The Jets are the league’s fourth-strongest run funnel (-5.0% PROE allowed), so I’m expecting a lot of carries from Joe Mixon. Stroud, who struggles on the road, was terrible against the Jets last year before suffering a concussion, completing 42% of his passes for a 4.0 YPA. Houston’s OL has struggled to protect Stroud lately, and that’s one of the reasons they have run the ball at the sixth-highest rate in Mixon’s healthy games (46.6%). He’s seen 25+ carries in three of those four games, so I’m very tempted to take Mixon’s over on rush attempts. I’ll refrain from that and pivot over to this correlated play, which I think has a better chance of winning. 

Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards

I loved him last week, and Schultz hit his Over receiving yards prop with a season-high 52 yards on four receptions and six targets. His target share and first-read share have increased about 5% in Weeks 6-8 without Nico Collins. It’s about to go up further with Stefon Diggs and his 24% target share out. The Jets are giving up the 10th-fewest receiving YPG (42.3), but the Patriots TEs, including Hunter Henry’s 5/45, posted 8/60 on 10 targets in this matchup last week, and in their last four games, the Jets are giving up a healthy 5.8/60 per game to TEs. Schultz has been coming on and should catch at least five balls in this one. It should be close, keep in mind, as my natural projection has him at 43 yards. 

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