In the second of two Week 7 Monday Night Football games, the Seattle Seahawks host the Houston Texans at Lumen Field. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Texans vs. Seahawks
When: Monday, October 20 at 10:00 pm ET
Where: Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington
Channel: ESPN
Texans vs. Seahawks Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 19. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Seahawks -166, Texans +140
Spread: Seahawks -3 (-110), Texans +3 (-110)
Total: Over 41.5 (-105), Under 41.5 (-115)
Texans vs. Seahawks Analysis
The Seahawks have played eight games with totals between 35.5 and 42 points under Mike Macdonald. They’re 8-0 straight-up with an average margin of victory of 11.3 points per game in those games.
This is also a game in which we’ll see a major strength vs. weakness matchup. While the Texans are 29th in the NFL in Pass Block Win Rate (51%), the Seahawks are eighth in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (44%). That means that Seattle should be able to tee off on C.J. Stroud, even with Houston having a bye week to plan for this. An extra week of rest and preparation is nice, but the Texans still have four starters along the line that grade out lower than 65% at Pro Football Focus. Houston neglected the offensive line in the offseason — and even traded an elite left tackle in Laremy Tunsil — and that has killed this team against strong opponents this year. There’s a reason the Texans started 0-3, losing to potential playoff teams like the Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars. Don’t read into wins over the Titans and banged-up Ravens.
This just should be a game in which Houston finds it very difficult to score, putting a little less pressure on Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense to score against a very good defense. But it’s hard to worry too much about Darnold to begin with. The 28-year-old is thriving with the Seahawks, as he has thrown for 1,541 yards with 11 touchdowns and only three picks. He’s also PFF’s highest-graded quarterback. Darnold also happened to torch this Texans team last year, throwing for 181 yards with four touchdowns and no picks with the Vikings. This might be a different system, but he’ll be comfortable with the looks he sees from Houston.
There’s also a strong betting system working against the Texans in this one. Since 2021, teams coming off two straight wins of 14+ that are playing in games with lines of +3 to -3 are 12-32 ATS. That system is +18.8 units for an ROI of 38.8%. Also, road teams playing in games with lines of +3 to -3 off double-digit road wins are 24-52 ATS after the first month of the season since 1983. And heading into Week 7, that system was 2-0 ATS this season.
Texans vs. Seahawks Player Props
Lean: Sam Darnold Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-108)
While Darnold threw for only 181 yards in a win over Houston last year, he probably would have thrown for more if that game wasn’t a complete blowout. In this meeting with the Texans, it’s hard not to like him to do a bit more. And it’s especially tough not to like him to go Over 221.5 passing yards. Darnold has gone over that mark in four of the last five games, and he had 218 yards in a blowout win in the one he didn’t. That would have been another performance with 222+ yards. Our OptaAI projections also happen to have Darnold going for 249.56 yards in this one. That’s a significant edge to the Over.
Texans vs. Seahawks Pick
I looked into buying down to 2.5 here, but it was a little too expensive to do so. That means I’m stuck playing Seahawks -3. Hopefully that doesn’t end up being the difference between a push and a win. Though I do think there’s a chance Seattle wins this game by at least a touchdown. I normally like backing teams off bye weeks, but Houston feels significantly overvalued because of two wins over miserable teams. Before getting to a soft spot on the schedule, the Texans looked like they were on their way to being one of the league’s most disappointing teams.
Bet: Seahawks -3 (-110)
