The final game of Wild Card Weekend actually won’t take place over the weekend, as the Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Houston Texans on Monday, January 12. We try to dive into all of the standalone games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Texans vs. Steelers betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Texans vs. Steelers
When: Monday, January 12 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Texans vs. Steelers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, January 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Texans -155, Steelers +130
Spread: Texans -3 (-102), Steelers +3 (-118)
Total: Over 38.5 (-105), Under 38.5 (-115)
Texans vs. Steelers Analysis
While Houston doesn’t always win pretty, this is the hottest team in football entering the postseason. The Texans have won nine in a row as they prepare to take on the Steelers. That winning streak started with a 36-29 comeback victory over the Jaguars, and it was actually Davis Mills that got Houston across the finish line there. However, things went to another level when C.J. Stroud returned in Week 13. The Texans didn’t play the toughest schedule over the final six games of the year, defeating the Colts (twice), Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, and Chargers. But Houston had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.142 from Week 13 on, putting the team ninth in the league. Well, when the Texans are playing decent football on the offensive side of the ball, they can seem impossible to beat.
When looking at EPA per play allowed, only Seattle (-0.113) had a better defense than Houston (-0.108) during the regular season. This Texans defense is tremendous when it comes to stopping the run, ranking third in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.124). They also have the best passing defense in the league, ranking first in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.100). All of that makes it very hard to imagine this being a good game for the Steelers offense.
Aaron Rodgers had his moments this season, but Pittsburgh was just 18th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.028) during the regular season. The Steelers really weren’t special in any way, shape, or form. They also run a pretty vanilla offense, so DeMeco Ryans’ job shouldn’t be all that difficult preparing to stop it.
There’s just a real chance that the Texans won’t need to score more than 17 or 20 points in order to cover the number in this game, which is why Houston looks like the right side. Of course, you need to have some faith in the Texans offense to actually pull the trigger, but they’re not facing the greatest defensive team. While Pittsburgh has a ton of recognizable names on defense, the team is just 19th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.025). The Steelers also happen to have an extremely burnable secondary, and Stroud can be accurate when dialing up deep shots.
Houston has also been extremely reliable in road games with low totals since Ryans took over. The Texans are 8-3 straight-up and 9-2 against the spread in road games with totals between 35.5 and 42 points with him on the sidelines. They’re also 2-0 both SU and ATS in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. Meanwhile, the Steelers are just 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round under Mike Tomlin.
Texans vs. Steelers Player Props
Lean: Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
While I don’t think this game will be high in scoring, I do think the Texans are going to cover the number. Well, they’re not going to do that without scoring an offensive touchdown or two, and Collins is the most likely player to score one. Collins only scored seven touchdowns in 15 games this year, but he’s a guy that can beat the Steelers in a few different ways. Collins is a good deep threat for this Houston team, but he’s also a good short-yardage receiver because of his combination of strength and effective route-running. And overall, I think Pittsburgh’s weak secondary will have some trouble keeping him in check.
Texans vs. Steelers Pick
You’re probably going to hear a lot about how the Steelers have won 23 home games in a row when playing on Monday night, and they’re 11-0 on MNF under Tomlin. However, that really doesn’t matter here. All that matters is the fact that Pittsburgh’s mediocre offense is working against one of the best defenses in football. That means the Steelers are fighting an uphill battle.
Bet: Texans -3 (-102)
