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Home sweet home?
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In the NFL, home is sweeter for some teams and not so sweet for others.
That difference becomes apparent in what VSiN’s Steve Makinen calls his “true home-field advantage” numbers.
You always hear the conventional wisdom that home field is worth 3 points, but Steve writes:
Judging home-field edges as equal across the board can lead to mistakes and missed betting opportunities.
You will want to read Steve’s piece to understand his methodology and all the nuances to get to his updated numbers.
The end product is a number for the true home-field advantage over 3½ seasons for every team:
Top 5
1. Lions +6.3
2. Bills +5.3
3. Ravens +5.1
4. Cowboys +4.7
5. Dolphins +3.6
Bottom 5
32. Commanders -1.5
31. Panthers -0.9
30. Giants -0.7
29. Cardinals -0.5
28. Falcons +0
Now this doesn’t mean Steve adds +6.3 for the Lions when they are playing at home. But knowing the degree to which the home team has an advantage influences his estimated spread.
(FYI: Steve did the same exercise for college football. And later this week, he will update his true road numbers for the NFL and college football.)
Week 12 News & Views
VSiN host Adam Schein weighs in on the news out of Jets’ HQ on Tuesday:
First Robert Saleh got fired. Now general manager Joe Douglas was shown the door after a disastrous 30-64 run as the general manager. Douglas’ failures start at quarterback.
Everything we do on Week 12 is posted here, including Michael Lombardi‘s obituary on the Cowboys’ season.
Wednesday MACtion
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke previews tonight’s doubleheader in college football:
MACtion continues on Wednesday with two games that have identical spreads, but one game definitely has a much higher profile than the other. Ohio and Toledo are two programs that have consistently shown well in the conference. Buffalo and Eastern Michigan are not, but the Eagles are seeking bowl eligibility and the Bulls already have it.
Weather has a chance to be a factor in both of these games, with rain and some wind in the forecast. Keep an eye on the latest weather updates to see. We’ve already seen the Ohio/Toledo total bet down, while Buffalo/Eastern Michigan has ticked up.
Everything we post on Week 13 is here.
Quick Hits
College Basketball: Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets later today on our NBA page.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-morning on our NHL page.
Golf: Wes Reynolds has Best Bets for the PGA Tour’s stop in Georgia.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk makes his picks for today’s Churchill Downs card. 1/ST Bet offers wagering on hundreds of races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at 1STBET.COM with promo code VSIN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200.
