Thursday Night Football Week 16: Saints vs. Rams picks, predictions and player props

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TNF Saints vs. Rams Week 16 odds and predictions

Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Thursday Night Football game. In Week 16, that game features the Los Angeles Rams hosting the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Saints are coming off back-to-back wins, but those came against the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants. Can they keep it up against a Rams team that has won four of its last five? Keep reading for our Saints vs. Rams preview, picks and player props. 

 

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How To Watch Saints vs. Rams

Date: Thursday, December 21

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)

Saints vs. Rams Spread

These teams are both playing some good football right now, setting up a fun Thursday night matchup. Both of them are fighting for postseason spots in the NFC, so the loser of this game will be in a rough spot. That should give this game a playoff-like feel, so you’re not going to want to miss it. But I do think that everything points towards this game going Los Angeles’ way. 

I know the Saints have won two games in a row coming into this one, but those victories came over the Panthers and Giants. This is going to be a big step up in competition and I’m not sure New Orleans can handle it. The Saints are just 24th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the run, which is bad news with the Rams on deck. Kyren Williams has been on a tear for the Rams, as he has rushed for at least 100 yards in five of the last seven games he has played. Williams has also rushed for at least 143 yards in three of his last five, and I expect him to run all over New Orleans. That’ll then make life rather easy on Matthew Stafford, as he’ll have a field day in the play action game. And the Saints don’t have guys that can cover both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. 

This is also a pretty good matchup for a mediocre Rams defense. New Orleans is a good running team, but Los Angeles has the ability to shut it down — especially with the Saints not being a great passing team. It’s just hard to picture Derek Carr lighting up this Rams defense, especially with Chris Olave banged up. I also just don’t see New Orleans putting together a great game plan offensively on a short week. This has not been a good offense all year, so why would a wonky week make it any better? 

I also do think it’s worth mentioning that the Rams are 21-9 against the spread in December games under Sean McVay. This is the time of year in which Los Angeles has generally gotten hot. The Rams are also 5-2 straight-up and 4-2-1 ATS on Thursdays under McVay, so he has been able to get his team ready with quick turnarounds.

Saints vs. Rams Total 

The Over has hit in three of the last four games that the Rams have played, and the one Under was last week’s meeting with the Washington Commanders and that was a game in which the two teams combined to score 48. So, that result would have meant an Over on this total. With that in mind, Los Angeles has consistently been playing higher scoring games. And I don’t think this will be any different, as the Rams’ ability to run on the Saints should mean a big number for McVay’s team. Williams should be able to really make a mark here, and that’ll then mean big plays for Stafford in the passing game. 

The question I have is whether the Saints will be able to score enough points for the Over to hit. But it’s not like Los Angeles has the best secondary in the world. I can see New Orleans finding some success but ultimately not being able to keep up. I can also see a scenario in which the Rams go up somewhat big and then the Saints do a good job of playing from behind.

Saints vs. Rams Player Props

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Kyren Williams Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-115 – Play to Over 89.5 Rushing Yards)

I really would be surprised if Williams didn’t dice this Saints defense up. In fact, I actually would be playing some alternates here. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering +165 odds on Williams to rush for at least 110 yards and +235 odds on him to rush for at least 120. I think both are well within the realm of possibility against a New Orleans team that has not been able to stop the run. However, if you want to play it a little safer, just take the Over 88.5/89.5.

Saints vs. Rams Prediction

I would have loved to see the Rams laying a field goal here, but I’m still comfortable backing Los Angeles at this number. The Rams are playing some really good football right now and have covered in four games in a row. They should expose a Saints team that was really struggling before getting two soft matchups in a row.

Lean: Rams -4

Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Saints vs. Rams!

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