Thursday Night Football Week 5: Bears vs. Commanders picks, predictions and player props

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TNF Bears vs. Commanders Week 5 odds and predictions

Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Thursday Night Football game. In Week 5, that game features the Washington Commanders hosting the Chicago Bears at FedEx Field in Washington, D.C. This game might not look like much on paper, but I believe it’ll be better than expected. Chicago is going to be hungry to get into the win column, while Washington is looking to get back over .500. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Bears vs. Commanders preview, picks and player props. 

MORE: Check out our Week 5 NFL Bet Hub for all of this week’s best bets and content

How To Watch Bears vs. Commanders

Date: Thursday, October 5

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)

Bears vs. Commanders Spread

The Bears are coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history. Chicago had a 28-7 lead over the Denver Broncos and were cruising for just about 2.5 quarters. But Denver came storming back, scoring 24 unanswered points to earn its first victory of the season. The Bears are now searching for their first win of the year, and they’re entering a tough road environment here. But if there’s any bright spot from last week’s game, it’s that Chicago got Justin Fields going. He was 28 for 35 for 335 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in that game, and it’d be big if the Bears have a confident version of him moving forward.

One thing working in Fields’ favor is that the Commanders are just 23rd in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass. With that in mind, this secondary is beatable through the air. So, if Fields isn’t careless with the football, Chicago should be able to find some success offensively in this game. Also, while the Commanders are ninth in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run this season, the Bears are sixth in the league in adjusted line yards. So, they have been getting some good push from their offensive line when it comes to running the football, which is interesting considering they struggle to keep Fields upright. But that’s a good sign for the backfield duo of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, who should both be able to make their marks in this one.

The problem for Chicago is that there isn’t much that suggests the team will be able to stop Washington. The Bears are 31st in the league in Defensive DVOA this year, and they have been awful against both the run and pass. That’s not what you want against anyone, but it’s especially brutal against this Commanders offense. If Washington is able to get Brian Robinson going on the ground, he’s going to make life a lot easier on the rest of the offense — while also wearing out the Bears defense. He’s a violent between-the-tackles runner, and his success would allow Sam Howell to settle into this game. Howell has proven that he can make all the throws this year, but his offensive line hasn’t done a great job of blocking for him. But if the running game is keeping the Bears honest, Howell will have time to go through his reads. And Chicago has a weak pass rush anyway.

Overall, this feels like a game that the Commanders should win at home. The Bears are just 1-9 in road games under head coach Matt Eberflus, who suddenly has one of the hotter seats in the league. Chicago also happens to be dealing with a lot of absences in the secondary, which will make Howell’s job even easier than usual. 

Bears vs. Commanders Total 

The Over has hit in all four of Chicago’s games this season and I don’t see that changing here — especially considering Washington has gone Over in two of its last three games. This Bears defense just can’t stop anyone, with the team giving up 34.3 points per game this season. And given this is a Thursday night game, Chicago hasn’t had any time to address its defensive issues. With that in mind, Washington should be able to put up some points in this game. However, I believe the Bears will be able to do the same, as I do think they figured some things out last week — even if the competition was putrid.

The Over also happens to be 7-3 in the 10 road games the Bears have played under Eberflus, so his defense hasn’t been traveling well. And the Over is 2-1 in the three Thursday night games that the Commanders have played under Ron Rivera.

All in all, I think this is going to turn into something of a shootout. And I think most fans would welcome that. 

Bears vs. Commanders Player Props

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D.J. Moore 50+ Receiving Yards

Moore has had an up-and-down season for the Bears thus far, which he is probably used to after his time with the Carolina Panthers. But the star wideout is coming off a game in which he caught eight passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. He has now had at least six catches in two of his last three games, and he has been targeted 22 times in that span. That said, I think you can count on him being a big part of the game plan here. And I just think that 50 is a very low bar for a guy like him to clear. Moore is the type of player that can beat defenses over the top, but he’s also dangerous after the catch. So, he can easily do most of his damage on one big play here. Of course, Kendall Fuller is a tough corner to beat. But I think Moore will have some success here, especially if Fields escapes the pocket and forces the Commanders secondary to defend for a long time.

Bears vs. Commanders Prediction

While I do think the visitor is getting a lot of points in this game, I feel a lot better about there being a ton of points in this one. I know Thursdays can be tricky for offenses, as they don’t have a full week to put things in place. But I don’t have much faith in either of these defenses playing flawless football. I think this turns into a high-scoring affair, especially with the Bears secondary being nowhere near full strength. The Commanders should score with relative ease, forcing the Bears to throw a lot to try and catch up. 

Lean: Over 44.5

Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Bears vs. Commanders! 

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