NFL Survivor picks for Week 14
Whether your Survivor pool began as a large field or more of an intimate setting, there can’t be many people left at this stage of the game. There also aren’t many great options left, as most of the good teams have definitely been taken by this point. I’ve been trying to keep that in mind with the article over the last few weeks.
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Fortunately, there are some teams out there this week in decent favorite roles that are likely still available. As always, I’ll be including teams to consider and the actual pick. Like I said going into last week when I had the losing Lions in Week 12, everybody is back in the hopper and available. However, I will look to prioritize teams that have not been crossed off the list yet.
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NFL Survivor Picks to Consider
Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots
The Steelers failed last week in a game that had some unfortunate circumstances. The game was delayed due to weather twice and Kenny Pickett got hurt on a 4th-and-Goal rush attempt in a 3-3 game. The Steelers failed to score, lost their quarterback, and then gave up a 99-yard touchdown drive. Pittsburgh’s red-zone maladies continued with one TD in three trips and they lost 24-10 to eliminate a large percentage of the Circa Survivor field and likely your field as well.
This week, the Steelers should be in good shape again. Of course, we all thought that last week, but the Patriots have scored 13 points over the last three games. They were shut out by the Chargers this past week. Are the Steelers going to be able to get to 10 points with Mitchell Trubisky? Would that be enough? If nothing else, as sad as last week wound up for Steelers backers, New England has lost eight of nine and can’t score.
Then again, imagine losing a Survivor entry on a 0-0 tie.
New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers
I’m assuming most people don’t have Baltimore available, but obviously they’re an option off the bye as a touchdown favorite against the Rams. But, I’m sure a lot of people have the Saints left. They take on the one-win Panthers, who were competitive and covered the spread against the Buccaneers, but lost for the 11th time in 12 games.
Truth be told, while it was a close game, that was more about how the Bucs stink and less about how the Panthers looked with interim head coach Chris Tabor. Carolina had 4.1 yards per play and went 3-of-15 on third down. The only real difference in the box score was the Mike Evans 75-yard TD catch and run. But, the Saints have a better defense than the Bucs and Carolina did nothing of consequence offensively, much like they haven’t throughout the season. They had 133 rushing yards. Bryce Young had 149 net passing yards.
Jameis Winston could very well be an upgrade to Derek Carr and the Saints may get a little healthier between now and then. The Bucs weren’t healthy at all last week and still prevailed.
Green Bay Packers over New York Giants
We have two Monday Night Football games this week and both are under consideration for Survivor contestants. The Dolphins will be a bigger favorite next week against the Jets at home, but they’re a two-touchdown favorite this week against the Titans and have scored 79 points the last two weeks, so that’s not a bad idea.
But, Miami probably isn’t on your list of available teams. Green Bay likely is. The cons with taking the Packers this week are that the Tommy DeVito-led Giants have shown life these last two weeks and Green Bay just scored a huge win over the Chiefs that may lead to something of a letdown. The pros in taking the Packers this week are that Jordan Love is a top-five QB by EPA + CPOE Composite over the last five weeks, which is a fancy way of saying he’s played really, really well.
Cleveland Browns over Jacksonville Jaguars
It would be great if we knew for sure that Joe Flacco would get the start for Cleveland. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has not been cleared from concussion protocol, but did practice on Wednesday. The Browns may decide it is better to use DTR and plan for their future rather than use the better option in Flacco and plan for their present.
I still think Flacco starts and the Browns will want his arm with windy conditions and bad weather on the shores of Lake Erie. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will go with CJ Beathard. Even if Trevor Lawrence beat the odds and found a way to play, throwing him out there on a wet, sloppy field against Cleveland’s defense would be asinine.
The Browns are desperate coming off of back-to-back losses. The Jaguars offense takes a hit with Beathard and the defense resides somewhere around league average in a lot of metrics in a game where the better defense should have an advantage. Cleveland is probably still open for you, so they are definitely a consideration.
NFL Survivor Pick for Week 14
Houston Texans over New York Jets
The Jets may be setting up for a mutiny. The coaching staff and the front office have not adjusted well to life without Aaron Rodgers and New York’s playoff hopes, slim as they were, are dead and buried now. Zach Wilson will start after Tim Boyle was benched on Sunday for a guy who finished 5-of-13 for 66 yards with three sacks. The running game managed all of 62 yards on 25 carries and Breece Hall only had 13 carries for 16 yards. You can see why Wilson was reportedly reluctant to start and Robert Saleh’s body language on Wednesday when saying “Zach gives us the best chance to win” was hardly inspiring.
The scary part here is that the Jets defense continues to play well despite zero help from the offense. That being said, the Jets are really strong against the run and outside the top 10 against the pass by EPA. You can throw on them a little bit and that’s precisely what CJ Stroud and the Texans will try to do.
The Texans have had some problems defending the pass, but this is a great offense to face to help with those numbers and they’ve very effectively stuffed the run. Houston will likely be a bigger favorite in Week 17 against the Titans, but this is a good spot to use them against a Jets team that may not be fully engaged this week.
