Top NFL Survivor picks for Week 7

October 17, 2023

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NFL Survivor picks for Week 7

The delicate balance of staying in the present while also looking ahead to the future has never been more important than it is in Week 7 of the NFL season. Why? Because Week 8 offers few Survivor choices, especially for those who have already selected the Dolphins.

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Many contestants start off less interested in being in it for the long haul and more interested in not being embarrassed by getting knocked out early. That can lead to a lot of elite and great teams being picked over the first few weeks of the season. As the year goes along, that means making some really tough decisions with some lesser-caliber squads.

As we hit Week 7 and many of you take stock of where things stand, you’ll probably have the Bills, Dolphins, 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles, and the like unavailable to you the rest of the way. That is one of many reasons why these contests are so hard to win.

For the purposes of this article, my “entry” is still alive after the Rams won last week. The picks so far (as I embody the previous paragraph) have been Commanders (Week 1), Bills (Week 2), Chiefs (Week 3), 49ers (Week 4), Dolphins (Week 5), and Rams (Week 6). I’ll play it out until I can’t, but teams I’ve used will be under the “consideration” section for those who have them available.

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NFL Survivor Picks to Consider

Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys did everything possible to try and lose Monday Night Football against the Chargers, but the Chargers “Chargered” again and Brandon Staley’s seat seems hotter than a $2 pistol. Of course, we’ve all been thinking that for a long time now and he’s still gainfully employed.

The Chiefs are on extra rest and prep here, while the Chargers are on a short week with travel to Arrowhead. Those are some big advantages for KC. The Chiefs are also outgaining opponents by about a full yard per play (5.7 to 4.7) and own a +59 point differential. They’ve scored on 46.8% of their possessions and opponents have only scored on 24.6% of theirs.

The Chargers, meanwhile, are being outgained on a YPP basis and opponents are scoring on a higher rate of drives than they are, despite eight takeaways and a +5 TO margin. As long as KC takes care of the ball, which has been an issue, they should win comfortably here.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

After years of playing second fiddle to New England, the Bills really have a chance to kick the Patriots around when they’re down. Buffalo is laying nine points on the road at Foxboro. Look, I know Tom Brady was there for 20 years, but this is tracking as the biggest road favorite role for Buffalo against New England since Week 10 in 1993. That just tells you how far apart these two teams really are right now.

Buffalo’s defensive injuries are going to show at some point, but probably not against Mac Jones or Malik Cunningham. New England still boasts roughly a league average defense in spite of the offensive shortcomings, but Buffalo is not a league average offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Buffalo wants to put it on a wounded and dejected opponent after years of that very same thing happening to them.

San Francisco 49ers over Minnesota Vikings

Life without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel was not enjoyable for the 49ers in Sunday’s loss to Cleveland. They’ll likely be without both of them here, but the 49ers defense should be able to shut down Kirk Cousins and the Justin Jefferson-less Vikings. Minnesota had four yards per play and 220 yards of offense against the Bears. They may struggle to reach those numbers against San Francisco.

Brock Purdy will be inside at U.S. Bank Stadium, so the weather won’t be a factor like it was in Cleveland last week. That should also help kicker Jake Moody, who missed a couple kicks. It may not be pretty, but I can’t see the Vikings defense matching what the 49ers defense is capable of here.

NFL Survivor Pick for Week 7

Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals

For being a defensive guru, Jonathan Gannon is finding out the hard way what a talent deficiency means. He doesn’t have the group he had in Philly and the Cardinals are down to 30th in EPA/play on defense and rank 29th in Dropback EPA.

Meanwhile, the Seattle defense, which grades as elite against the run, has had issues with the pass, but does anybody really expect Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals receivers to take advantage? The Cardinals have gone in reverse on offense as well and rank 21st in EPA/play and 23rd in Dropback EPA.

The Seahawks are 12th in Dropback EPA and ninth in EPA/play, as they’ve run the ball effectively of late. Seattle did lose to Cincinnati last week as a result of red-zone failures, but they had 5.4 yards per play to 4.0 and went 1-for-5 in the red zone. The Cardinals have already allowed 30 red-zone trips, which is the most in the NFL by far.

Seattle recently had a bye and maybe was impacted by the layoff and the early start in Cincy, but none of those worries are present here. They’re the pick for Week 7.