Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 16 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 46.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The 49ers (10-4) have won four straight games and just took down the Titans 37-24, covering as 12.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Colts (8-6) have dropped four in a row and just fell to the Seahawks 18-16 but managed to cover as 12.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the surging 49ers.
Behind 71% of spread bets at DraftKings, the 49ers rose up from -5.5 to -6.5 earlier in the week. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on the Colts, dropping San Francisco back down to -5.5. Several shops are juicing up the Colts +5.5 (-115) on gameday, indicating further liability on Indianapolis plus the points.
Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze in favor of Indianapolis, as the line is right back to where it opened at despite the public hammering the 49ers.
The Colts have notable “bet against the public” value as Indianapolis is receiving less than one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
At Circa, the Colts are taking in 22% of spread bets but 43% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Indianapolis has buy-low value as an unpopular dog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak.
Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win, like the Colts here, are 45-34 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season. If they are getting 5-points or more, they improve to 32-20 ATS (62%) with a 17% ROI this season.
Primetime dogs are 27-22 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season. Primetime dogs getting 5-points or more are 79-58 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI since 2020.
In his regular season career, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 28-25 ATS (53%) as a dog but 45-47 ATS (49%) as a favorite, including 23-26 ATS (47%) as a favorite laying 5-points or more.
Those looking to go contrarian and back Indianapolis but also gain some added protection could target the Colts in a teaser. By taking Indianapolis up from +5.5 to +11.5, savvy value-driven bettors can pass through the key numbers of 7 and 10.
In terms of the total, it opened at 46 and has ticked up to 46.5. Although, now on gameday the under 46.5 is being juiced up to -115 and some shops are creeping back down to 46.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 51% of bets and 63% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 45% of bets and a hefty 79% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Non-conference overs are 43-30 (59%) with a 12% ROI this season.
However, primetime unders have gone 29-22 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 130-93 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2022.
