Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 5 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5, 44)
The 49ers (3-1) just fell to the Jaguars 26-21 last week, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Rams (3-1) just outlasted the Colts 27-20, covering as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as low as a 3-point home favorite.
Throughout the week, we’ve seen nothing but heavy movement in favor of Los Angeles, as the Rams have been steamed up from -3 to -8.5.
This massive adjustment was due in large part to a rash of injuries for the 49ers, as San Francisco will be without starting QB Brock Purdy (toe), WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jauan Jennings (ankle). Backup QB Mac Jones will start under center in place of Purdy.
At DraftKings, the Rams are receiving 61% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 47% of spread bets and a whopping 86% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Thursday Night Football home favorites are 99-81 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2006.
Some shops reached as high as Rams -9, at which point we saw some inflated buyback on the 49ers +9, dropping the line back down to +8.5 where it rests now. The 49ers have buy-low value as an unpopular contrarian primetime dog. Big dogs +6.5 or more are 8-7 ATS (53%) this season and 141-114 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2022.
Those looking to fade the banged up 49ers and back the Rams at home could also consider Los Angeles in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Rams down from -8.5 to -2.5, savvy bettors are able to pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Sharps have also gotten down hard on the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 44. We’ve seen the total fall from 45.5 to 44 over the last 24-hours specifically, with some books even down to 43.5. Game day movement is especially notable because it comes when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 50% of bets but 60% of dollars, a sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 8-7 (53%) this season and 198-143 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. When the total drops at least one full point in a divisional matchup, the under is 8-5 (62%) this season and 95-75 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2022.
Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 57% to the under historically.
Both teams rank top 10 in fewest points allowed per game, with the 49ers giving up 18.8 PPG (7th best) and the Rams allowing 20.3 PPG (10th).
