NFL Week 13 continues today with a Black Friday matchup between the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s late afternoon showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43.5)
The Bears (8-3) have won four games in a row and just held off the Steelers 31-28, pushing as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles (8-3) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Cowboys 24-21 and losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7-point home favorite.
We’ve seen this line remain quietly static all week, refusing to budge off the opening price. We’ve never seen the line dip down to -6.5. Some shops have briefly risen up to Eagles -7.5 and come right back down to 7, indicating some pro action jumping on the Bears plus the hook anytime it appears.
At DraftKings, the Eagles are receiving 42% of spread bets and 50% of spread dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in 48% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
However, while the Eagles enjoy the sharper bet split, the Bears match several profitable betting systems.
Big dogs getting 7-points or more are 28-20 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 42-32 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season. If those teams are getting 7-points or more, they improve to 21-10 ATS (68%) with a 30% ROI this season.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
The Bears are also a “dog who can score” system match (26.3 PPG, 8th in the NFL), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
Chicago is 4-2 ATS (67%) as a dog this season.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is just 6-12 ATS (33%) as a favorite of 7-points or more in his regular season career.
Those looking to back Chicago would be wise to hold out and shop around for a possible hook (+7.5) to appear between now and kickoff.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen some sharp under money hit the market, dropping the total from 44.5 to 43.5. This movement is notable because the public is taking the over (67% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 33% of bets and 60% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 29% of bets and 38% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 40s with partly cloudy skies and 15-20 MPH winds, making this a “windy under” system match.
When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 16-8 (67%) with a 27% ROI this season and 257-182 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2016.
