Tonight Week 10 of the NFL regular season begins with a primetime Thursday Night Football showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 52.5)

The Bengals (4-5) have won three of their last four games and just crushed the Raiders 41-24, easily covering as 8-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (6-3) have won six of their last seven games and just dismissed the Broncos 41-10, cruising as 9-point home favorites.

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward a Ravens cover and 57% of spread bets are laying the points with Baltimore. However, despite receiving a majority of bets we’ve seen the Ravens remain stagnant at -6. Some shops have briefly risen to -6.5 throughout the week and quickly fallen back down to -6. Reading between the lines, it appears as though we are seeing a sharp line freeze on the Bengals, as the line refuses to budge off the opener despite a majority of public support backing Baltimore. In other words, the oddsmakers seem to have taken a position on Cincinnati due to their reluctance to move the number or give out the hook to contrarian Bengals backers. The next move will be critical and shed more insight into where the late money is breaking. If we see the line remain at 6 or inch down to 5.5, that will signal further gameday Bengals money showing up. If we see it rise up to -6.5 across the board that will indicate late Ravens action.

The Bengals have “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 43% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Road dogs getting 6-points or more are 19-8 ATS (70%) with a 33% ROI this season. Cincinnati has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Primetime dogs getting 6-points or more are 4-2 ATS this season and 55-37 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI since 2020. Joe Burrow is 18-10 ATS (64%) with a 23% ROI as a dog in his career. Lamar Jackson is 5-14 ATS (26%) as a favorite of 6-points or more since 2021.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it rise from 50.5 to 52.5. It reached as high as 53.5 before some inflated under buyback hit the market and dropped it back down to 52.5. This sharp buyback is notable because the public is hammering the over (65% of bets), yet the late gameday movement is falling back down. Outdoor divisional unders are 236-196 (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2021. Primetime games with a total of 47 or more are 25-14 (64%) with a 23% ROI since 2022. When the total is 50 or more, the under is 7-4 (64%) this season and 30-15 (67%) with a 27% ROI since 2022. Both teams rank in the bottom half in terms of pace of play, with the Ravens ranking 17th and the Bengals ranking 26th. The forecast calls for clear skies, high 50s and mild 5 MPH winds.

Player Prop to Consider

Zay Flowers over 61.5 receiving yards (-110): We’ve seen this number rise on gameday from 59.5 to 61.5. Flowers has gone over this number in four of his last five games. He’s also gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 home games. Last week he had 5 catches for 127 yards against the Broncos. Back in Week 5 against the Bengals, Flowers caught 7 passes for 111 yards. Cincinnati is giving up 212.4 passing yards per game, ranking 17th. With such a high total and ideal weather conditions, we could see a higher scoring game which benefits offensive production.

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