Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 12 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 43.5) at Houston Texans
The Bills (7-3) have won three of their last four games and just took down the Buccaneers 44-32, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Texans (5-5) have also won three of their last four and just held off the Titans 16-13 but failed to cover as 5.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as low as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Bills, especially following the news that Houston would once again start QB Davis Mills in place of the injured C.J. Stroud.
With 80% of spread bets at DraftKings pounding Buffalo, we saw the Bills move up from -2.5 to -6.
However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen some sharp buyback on Houston getting the key number of +6, dropping the line back down to +5.5 where it stands now. Essentially, late movement is breaking back toward the Texans plus the points.
The next move will be meaningful because a spread of 5.5 is considered “no man’s land” in sports betting. So, if we see the line fall down to 5 that will indicate late movement breaking further toward Houston. On the other hand, if it rises back up to 6 that will indicate late money breaking back toward Buffalo.
Regardless of the next move, Houston has pronounced “bet against the public” value as the Texans are only receiving 20% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet primetime game.
At Circa, the Texans are receiving 38% of spread bets but a whopping 87% of spread dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating heavy smart money from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Primetime dogs are 18-16 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI this season and 159-142 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI since 2020. Conference primetime dogs are 17-9 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI this season and 121-101 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020.
Primetime dogs getting 5.5-points or more are 9-5 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI this season and 73-53 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020.
Houston has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
Josh Allen is 25-27 ATS (48%) as a favorite of 5.5-points or more in his regular season career. If favored by 5.5-points or more in a conference game, Allen is just 16-20 ATS (44%).
The Texans have the edge defensively, allowing just 16.3 PPG (1st in the NFL) while the Bills are giving up 22.9 PPG (14th).
In terms of the total, it has remained largely static at 43.5. Some shops briefly ticked up to 44 before falling back down to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 57% of bets and 67% of dollars. However, at Circa the under is receiving 44% of bets and 63% of dollars.
Primetime unders are 21-16 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 211-152 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
Overs are 85-78 (52%) this season. However, when the total is 44 or less, the over is 35-25 (58%) with an 11% ROI this season. Non-division overs are 63-51 (55%) with a 5% ROI this season.
The Texans are 7-3 (70%) to the under this season, the tied for the 2nd best under team in the NFL. The Bills are even at 5-5.
