Week 16 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 41)
The Broncos (9-5) have won four straight games and just dismissed the Colts 31-13, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Chargers (8-6) have dropped three of their last four games and just got crushed by the Buccaneers 40-17, losing outright as 3-point home favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point home favorite. Early smart money grabbed the points with Denver at the key number of +3, dropping the line down to +2.5. Most shops are now juicing up Chargers -2.5 (-115), signaling some buy-low liability on Los Angeles and a possible game-day rise back up to the key number of -3.
At DraftKings, the Chargers are only receiving 46% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars. This indicates a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split with pros looking to “fade the trendy dog” Broncos. However, at Circa the Broncos are taking in only 34% of spread bets but 79% of spread dollars, which indicates a massive sharp money discrepancy in favor of the road dog. In appears as though we have dueling sharp action here, as some pros prefer Broncos at the key number of +3 while others are more interested in buying low on the Chargers at a reduced -2.5.
The Broncos have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 37-27 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season. Those looking to take the points with Denver would be wise to consider the Broncos in a Wong Teaser (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
On the other hand, the Chargers have buy-low value as a short home favorite on a losing streak in a “desperation” spot against a sell-high road dog on a winning streak. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 10-2 (83%) straight up this season and 22-7 (76%) straight up since 2023. Primetime home favorites are 24-7 (77%) straight up this season with a 14% ROI. The Chargers are -145 on the moneyline.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen smart money hit the under and drop the line down from 42.5 to 41.5, with some shops down to 41. At DraftKings, the over is getting 61% of bets and 67% of dollars. However, at Circa the under is receiving 48% of bets but 67% of dollars, further evidence of wiseguys out in Vegas expecting a lower scoring game.
When the total falls at least a point in a divisional game, the udner is 21-16 (57%) this season and 83-60 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2022. Primetime unders are 25-25 (50%) this season but 185-132 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. The Chargers are 9-5 to the under this season, tied for the second best under team in the NFL. The Broncos, on the other hand, are 8-5-1 to the over. Those looking to find a dance partner for the Broncos teaser (+2.5 to +8.5) could also entertain teasing the total up from 41.5 to 47.5 and then take the under. These teams met up back in Week 6 and the Chargers won 23-16 in Denver.
Player Prop to Consider
Quentin Johnston over 35.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM): Johnston has gone over this number in two straight games. He just caught 5 passes for 45 yards last week against the Bucs. Johnston has averaged 8.5 targets over his last two games, the most on the team. The Broncos have allowed an average of 312 passing yards per game over their last three games, the most in the NFL. The Broncos have a banged up secondary as well. They will be without starting CB Riley Moss. Meanwhile, star CB Patrick Surtain is expected to play but he might not be at full strength after leaving last week’s game against the Colts win an ankle injury. Make sure you shop around for this prop, as BetMGM is hanging 35.5 but other books are as high as 39.5.
