Tonight Week 9 of the NFL regular season wraps up with a primetime showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 45.5)

The Buccaneers (4-4) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Falcons 31-26, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (7-0) are the last remaining undefeated team and just took down the Raiders 27-20 but failed to cover as 9-point road favorites.

The early opener for this game was all over the place, as some shops opened as low as Chiefs -7.5 (DraftKings) while others hung Chiefs -8.5 (Pinnacle), -9 (Circa), -9.5 (BetMGM) or even -10 (Superbook). Regardless of the shop, the public seems to think this is too many points to lay the with Kansas City and 59% of spread bets are backing the Bucs as a big road dog. However, despite the public taking the points with the Bucs, we’ve seen several shops either stay the same or move in favor of Kansas City as the low opening books have risen up to Chiefs -9 and the other higher-opening books have remained relatively stagnant. In other words, not a single book is currently offering -8.5 or less. Reading between the lines, it appears the oddsmakers have taken a position on Kansas City and refuse to hand out anything lower than -9.

The Chiefs offer rare contrarian value as they are an unpopular favorite only receiving 41% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Kansas City is also receiving 55% of spread dollars, which indicates a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. To put it another way, it seems as though the wiseguys are looking to “fade then trendy dog” Bucs and instead lay the points with the defending Super Bowl champs. Kansas City has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Chiefs have a big edge defensively, only giving up 17.6 PPG while the Bucs are allowing 26.7 PPG.

It will be interesting to monitor how the line moves on game day and where it inevitably closes, which could offer more insight into where the late sharp action is breaking. Do we see Kansas City inch closer to -9.5, signaling further sharp contrarian money laying the points with the unpopular Chiefs? Or do we see the market fall closer to -8.5, which would indicate late action breaking toward Tampa Bay?

For those looking to take the points with the Bucs, road dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 21-11 ATS (66%) this season. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is just 22-28 ATS (44%) as a favorite of 6.5-points or more.

Sharps are also leaning under, as we’ve seen the total remain relatively stagnant at 45.5 despite the public hammering the over (72% of bets). This indicates a sharp under line freeze, as the oddsmakers appear reluctant to move the total up despite overwhelming action on the over for fear of giving out a better price for contrarian under backers. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 59% to the home team and 54% to the under, historically. Weather could be an issue here, as the forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-7 MPH winds and possibly some rain. Primetime unders are 174-123 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2019.

Player Prop to Consider

Kareem Hunt over 63.5 rushing yards (-110): Hunt has gone over this number in three of his first four games since joining the Chiefs. In his only home game with Kansas City, Hunt rushed for 102 yards on 27 carries three weeks ago against the Saints. Tampa Bay is allowing 131.6 rushing yards per game this season, ranking 19th out of 32 teams. However, over their last three games Tampa Bay is allowing 151.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th worst in the NFL. The Bucs gave up 129 rushing yards to the Falcons last week and 244 rushing yards to the Ravens the week before. If weather is an issue, the Chiefs may prefer to run the ball heavily. Also, if Kansas City is holding a big lead going into the 4th quarter, expect a lot of rushing to close out the game.

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