Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 9 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 53.5)
The Cardinals (2-5) have lost five straight and just came up short against the Packers 27-23 but managed to cover as 7-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Cowboys (3-4-1) just got rolled by the Broncos 44-24, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short, especially with Arizona backup Jacoby Brissett getting the start for the injured Kyler Murray, and 84% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Cowboys at home.
This heavily lopsided public support has pushed Dallas up from -3 to -3.5 across the market. However, we’ve seen some contrarian buyback on Arizona, as the Cardinals are being juiced up +3.5 (-120) while a few other books have crept back down to Cardinals +3.
Reading between the lines, we are seeing a bit of a sharp line freeze on Arizona, as the line has barely budged and is juiced back toward the Cardinals despite the massive public betting in favor of Dallas.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 16% of spread bets and 25% of spread dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 11% of spread bets but 30% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the incredibly unpopular road dog.
Primetime dogs are 15-12 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI this season and 156-138 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020.
The Cardinals enjoy a rest advantage, as Arizona is coming off their bye week while the Cowboys just played in Denver against the Broncos.
Bettors looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game have also hammered the Cowboys on the moneyline at -175. At DraftKings, Dallas is taking in 87% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, a heavy dose of both public and sharp support.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 20-5 (80%) straight up with a 20% ROI this season and 111-46 (71%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2023.
Sharps have also hammered the over, raising the total up from 51.5 to 53.5, with some books touching as high as 54 or even 54.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 54% of bets and 60% of dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action on a higher scoring game.
Overs are 72-61 (54%) with a 3% ROI this season. When the home team missed the playoffs the previous, as is the case here, the over is 43-32 (57%) with a 9% ROI this season. Non-division overs are 56-43 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season.
The Cowboys are 6-2 (75%) to the over this season, the 3rd best over team in the NFL. The Cardinals are 4-3 (57%) to the over.
Dallas is averaging 30.8 PPG on offense, ranking 2nd best in the NFL. The Cowboys are also giving up 31.3 PPG, ranking 2nd worst in the NFL.
