Week 1 of the NFL regular season continues tonight with a rare Friday Night Football showdown in Brazil between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs finished 15-2 last season, reaching the Super Bowl where they got blasted by the Eagles 40-22. Oddsmakers are expecting some regression this year as Kansas City’s win total sits at 10.5 with the under juiced to -165 at DraftKings. The Chiefs have the 4th best odds to win the Super Bowl at +850, the 3rd best odds to win the AFC at +400 and are -115 favorites to win the AFC West.
On the other hand, the Chargers went 11-6 last year, losing to the Texans 32-12 in the Wild Card round. Los Angeles’s win total for this season is 10.5 with the under juiced to -170. The Chargers are +2500 to win the Super Bowl, +1200 to win the AFC and +370 to win the AFC West.
This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too low and 64% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Kansas City.
This lopsided betting pushed the Chiefs up from -2.5 to -3. However, despite this heavy public support in favor of Kansas City, oddsmakers seem reluctant to hand out the hook to contrarian Chargers backers. This signals some line freeze liability in favor of the Chargers plus the points.
Los Angeles has notable buy-low “bet against the public” value, as the Chargers are an inflated dog only taking in 36% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
The Chargers match several profitable betting systems. Week 1 dogs are 79-62 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional dogs are 32-16 ATS (67%) with a 28% ROI since 2016. Week 1 inflated dogs getting at least an additional half point off the opener are 44-30 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI since 2016.
Justin Herbert is 6-2 ATS (75%) with a 43% ROI against Kansas City in his career and 11-6 ATS (65%) with a 23% ROI as a dog getting 3-points or more. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is 47-51 ATS (48%) as a favorite and 16-20 ATS (44%) as a divisional favorite.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the Chargers as a primetime dog would be wise to shop around and hold out for the hook (+3.5) between now and kickoff, as several shops are juicing up Chiefs -3 (-115).
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a steady dose of over money hit the market, raising the number up from 44 to 46.5, with some shops up to 47 or even 47.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 52% of bets and 57% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 38% of bets and 50% of dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 60s/high 50s with 5 MPH winds (gusts up to 15 MPH) and possibly some late showers at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
