Today the NFL Postseason rolls on with a pair of Conference Championship games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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3 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 47)

The Commanders (14-5) are the 6-seed and just upset the Lions 45-31 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Eagles (16-3) are the 2-seed and just took down the Rams 28-22 in the Divisional Round but failed to cover as 7-point home favorites.

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as low as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early smart money laid the points with the Eagles, steaming Philadelphia all the way up from -4.5 to -6. Several shops are juicing up Eagles -6 (-115) while a few outliers have even risen to -6.5. At DraftKings, Philadelphia is taking in 40% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Eagles are receiving 44% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk favorite.

However, one key question that bettors must ask themselves is if the Eagles still present value now that the line has moved so much. For example, if Philadelphia were to win by six points (a common key number), that would mean that early sharps who got Eagles -5.5 or less would cash, while late Eagles -6 or -6.5 bettors would push or lose. We saw this same situation last week when the Eagles opened at -5 but closed at -7 against the Rams. Philadelphia won by six points, which awarded early Eagles bettors a win and late Eagles bettors a loss.

Those looking to play Philadelphia might prefer to tease down the Eagles from -6 to a pick’em. Conference championship home favorites are 26-10 straight up (72%) since 2005.

At this point, Washington is offering inflated line value at +6.5. Playoff dogs are 7-3 ATS this postseason and 59-37 ATS (61%) with a 19% ROI since 2017. Postseason dogs who missed the playoffs the previous year are 2-1 ATS this postseason and 41-21 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2017. Washington has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Commanders also enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Saturday January 18th while the Eagles last played on Sunday January 19th. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 54% ATS to the road team historically.

Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 48 to 47. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 26% of bets but a whopping 71% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 22% of bets and 39% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game. Outdoor playoff unders are 6-2 this postseason and 40-31 (56%) since 2017. When a playoff total falls at least a half point, the under is 26-19 (58%) since 2017. Hochuli is 58% to the under historically.

The forecast calls for high 30s, low 40s with cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds early that will decrease as the game goes on.

6:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 49)

The Bills (15-4) are the 2-seed and just outlasted the Ravens 27-25 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Chiefs (16-2) are the 1-seed and just dismissed the Texans 23-14 in the Divisional Round but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as low as a 1-point home favorite. The public is siding with Buffalo as a short road dog. However, despite the Bills receiving 60% of spread bets at DraftKings and 64% of spread bets at Circa we’ve seen this line move further in favor of Kansas City -1 to -2. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Chiefs, as the line has moved in their direction despite the majority of tickets going with the Bills.

The Chiefs have notable “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value, as they are only taking in roughly one-third of tickets in what is on track to be the most heavily bet game of the season. Those looking to bet against the public and back Kansas City might prefer to mitigate some risk by playing the Chiefs on the moneyline (-130). At DraftKings, Kansas City is taking in 37% of moneyline bets and 46% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Chiefs are receiving 40% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet split in favor of Kansas City to win straight up.

Patrick Mahomes is 9-0 straight up this season as a home favorite. In his career, Mahomes is 54-12 (82%) straight up as a home favorite overall, including 11-2 (85%) straight up as a postseason home favorite. Conference championship home favorites are 26-10 straight up (72%) since 2005. The Chiefs also enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Saturday January 18th while the Bills last played on Sunday January 19th. For those looking to play Buffalo, consider the Bills in a Wong Teaser (+2 to +8), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up slightly from 48 to 49. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 70% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. However, Circa is showing 43% of bets and 68% of dollars on the under. The forecast calls for high 20s, low 30s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

Updated Super Bowl Odds (DraftKings)

Eagles +180

Chiefs +220

Bills +255

Commanders +750

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