The NFL regular season kicks off tonight as the Dallas Cowboys face the Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for the Thursday Night Football season opener using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 47.5)
The Cowboys finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs last season. Oddsmakers are expecting a similar performance this year as Dallas’s win total sits at 7.5 with the under juiced to -120 at DraftKings.
Meanwhile, the defending champion Eagles went 14-3 last year, crushing the Chiefs 40-22 in the Super Bowl. The Eagles’ win total is set at 11.5 this season with the under juiced to -125. Philadelphia is +700 to repeat as champions, the third best odds behind the Bills and Ravens (both +600). The Eagles are -145 favorites to win the NFC East division and +350 favorites to win the NFC conference.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7-point home favorite.
The public expects an easy Eagles win and cover, as 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Philadelphia.
This lopsided betting, along with the news that the Cowboys traded away Micah Parsons, pushed the Eagles up from -7 to -8.5. However, it seems as though 8.5 is the high water mark as we’ve seen some sharp buyback on the Cowboys at an inflated +8.5, forcing oddsmakers juice up the Cowboys +8.5 (-115) while other books have come back down to Cowboys +8.
Dallas has notable “bet against the public” value as the Cowboys are only receiving 37% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
At DraftKings, the Cowboys are receiving 37% of spread bets and 43% of spread dollars. At Circa, Dallas is taking in 38% of spread bets and 47% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog plus the points.
The Cowboys match several profitable betting systems. Week 1 dogs are 78-62 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2016. Week 1 road dogs are 52-36 ATS (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional dogs are 31-16 ATS (66%) with a 26% ROI since 2016. Big Week 1 dogs +6.5 or more are 25-12 ATS (68%) with a 31% ROI since 2016. Week 1 inflated dogs getting at least 1-point off the opener are 36-21 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI since 2016.
Jalen Hurts is 6-11 ATS (35%) as a favorite of -7 or more. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is 4-1 ATS (80%) as a dog of +7 or more.
Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 54% ATS to the road team, historically.
Those looking to back the Eagles but wary of laying the big number could instead entertain Philadelphia in a Wong teaser (-8.5 to -2.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen the number tick up slightly from 46.5 to 47.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 64% of bets and 71% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 66% of bets and 61% of dollars. The under has buy-low value as an inflated contrarian play. When the total is 47.5 or more, primetime unders have gone 74-51 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2019.
The forecast calls for low 70s with 7-10 MPH winds (gusts up to 25 MPH) and possibly some rain at Lincoln Financial Field.
