Tonight we kick off NFL Week 14 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 54.5)
The Cowboys (6-5-1) have won three straight games and just upset the Chiefs 31-28, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Lions (7-5) have rotated wins and losses over their last seven games and just fell to the Packers 31-24, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Detroit listed as high as a 5.5-point home favorite.
Early sharp money pounced on Dallas plus the points, dropping the Cowboys from +5.5 to +3.5 and then down to +3.
However, on gameday we are seeing some sneaky sharp buyback on the Lions, as Detroit has ticked back up from -3 to -3.5.
In terms of the bet splits, the Cowboys are a bit of a “trendy dog.” Dallas is taking in 55% of spread bets at DraftKings and 57% of spread bets at Circa, evidence of slight public support. At DraftKings, the Lions are receiving 46% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
We also have conflicting system matches on both sides.
Primetime dogs, like Dallas, are 21-19 ATS (53%) this season and 162-145 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI since 2020. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 45-33 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season. Dogs with “severe” line moves of 2-points or more in their favor are 97-79 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2018.
On the other hand, favorites off a loss, like the Lions, are 39-30 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI this season. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 101-85 ATS (54%) with a 6% ROI since 2006.
Detroit offers buy-low value as a deflated contrarian favorite off a loss against a sell-high trendy dog off a big upset win riding a winning streak.
Dan Campbell is 25-15 ATS (63%) with a 20% ROI after a loss, including 16-7 ATS (70%) with a 33% ROI after a loss at home.
Detroit is currently listed around -175 on the moneyline. Favorites off a loss are 48-20 (71%) straight up with a 6% ROI this season. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 6-3 (67%) straight up this season and 139-50 (74%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2006.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 53.5 to 54.5.
The public expects a shootout and they’re rooting for points, as the over is taking in 65% of spread bets at both DraftKings and Circa. However, at Circa the under is only receiving 35% of spread bets but a whopping 76% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the under.
When the total if 50 or more (super high total), the under is 12-8 (60%) this season and 51-29 (64%) with a 22% ROI since 2022. When the total is 54 or more, the under is 6-2 (75%) since 2022.
Primetime unders are 25-18 (58%) with an 11% ROI this season and 126-89 (59%) with a 12% ROI since 2022.
When a primetime total is 50 or more, the under is 6-3 (67%) this season and 55-37 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2017.
This is also a sell-high inflated under opportunity after both teams flew over the total on Thanksgiving.
Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically.
