Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 11 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 50.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Cowboys (3-5-1) just fell to the Cardinals 27-17, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Raiders (2-7) just came up short against the Broncos 10-7 but managed to cover as 9.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short, especially with the Cowboys coming off a bye, adding DT Quinnen Williams and facing a Raiders team with one of the worst records in the NFL. As a result, a whopping 82% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Dallas on the road.
However, despite receiving such lopsided public support we’ve seen Dallas remain stagnant at -3.5. Normally, if a team is getting such heavy betting you would expect to see them rise up from -3.5 to -4 or -4.5. The fact that this hasn’t happened indicates sharp liability on the home dog plus the points.
In addition, most of the market is juicing up the Raiders side +3.5 (-115) not the popular Cowboys side -3.5 (-105). Also, throughout the week, we’ve seen the line touch Raiders +3 at times. It has never risen up to -4.
Reading between the lines, we are seeing a wiseguy “line freeze” in favor of the Raiders plus the hook, as the line has either stayed the same or leaned down toward Las Vegas despite the public hammering Dallas.
Las Vegas is the top “bet against the public” play of Week 11, as the Raiders are receiving less than 20% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
At DraftKings, Las Vegas is taking in 18% of spread bets but 31% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home dog plus the hook.
Primetime dogs are 18-15 ATS (55%) with a 4% ROI this season and 159-141 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Monday Night Football dogs are 6-4 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI this season and 54-40 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2020.
Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 93-83 ATS (53%) to the home team historically.
Pete Carroll is 55-38 ATS (59%) with a 15% ROI as a dog, the second best active regular season dog head coach behind only Mike Tomlin.
The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS (75%) as a dog this season but only 1-4 ATS (20%) as a favorite, including 0-2 ATS as a road favorite. Overall, Dallas is 2-1-1 at home but just 1-4 on the road.
We’ve also seen the total drop slightly from 51 to 50.5, with other shops inching down to 50.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 55% of bets and 54% of dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 21-15 (58%) with an 11% ROI this season and 211-151 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
When the total is 47.5 or more, primetime unders are 9-5 (64%) with a 22% ROI this season and 102-71 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2017.
When the total is 50 or more, the under is 8-6 (57%) with a 9% ROI this season and 47-27 (64%) with a 21% ROI since 2022.
