Tonight we kick off NFL Week 3 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 50)
The Dolphins (0-2) just came up short against the Patriots 33-27 in Week 2, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (2-0) just crushed the Jets 30-10, easily covering as 6-point road favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 75% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Bills at home.
This lopsided betting pushed Buffalo up from -10.5 to -12.5. However, once we reached the high-water mark of Bills -12.5, that’s when we saw some wiseguy buyback on the Dolphins as an inflated double-digit dog, dropping Miami back down from +12.5 to +11.5 where it stands now.
The Dolphins have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 25% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game.
At DraftKings, Miami is receiving 25% of spread bets but 41% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in their favor.
Teams that are 0-2 and a dog getting points in Week 3 have gone 37-17 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI since 2006. Primetime dogs are 5-2 ATS (71%) this season and 146-128 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Divisional dogs are 263-224 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
Miami has additional buy-low value as a winless dog who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high undefeated favorite that did cover the previous week. Those looking to back the contrarian Dolphins would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings is hanging Miami +12.5 while the rest of the market sits at +11.5.
Josh Allen is 33-26 ATS (56%) as a favorite of 9.5-points or less. When favored by 10-points or more, Allen is 8-9 ATS (47%).
The Bills will be without two key defensive starters as DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano will miss the game with injuries.
Those looking to back Buffalo but wary of the late buyback toward Miami could consider teasing the Bills down from -11.5 to -5.5, thereby passing through the key numbers of 10 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen some steady over action raise the line from 48.5 to 50, with some shops touching 50.5. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 63% of bets and 72% of dollars. However, at Circa we are seeing 23% of bets bet 39% of dollars on the under.
The question total bettors must ask themselves is whether this line has gotten so high that it provides actionable buy-low value on the inflated under, especially at 50.5.
Primetime unders are 5-3 (62%) this season and 195-139 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. Outdoor divisional unders are 6-4 (60%) this season and 305-256 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2017.
The weather looks perfect in Buffalo, with the forecast calling for mid 60s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
