Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 15 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 42.5)
The Dolphins (6-7) have won four straight games and just brushed aside the Jets 34-10, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (7-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 27-22 victory over the Ravens, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and 67% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Steelers at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support, Pittsburgh has remained relatively stagnant at -3. We’ve seen the line briefly rise up to Steelers -3.5 at times throughout the week, at which point respected wiseguys scooped up the Dolphins plus the hook, dropping the line back down to Steelers -3 where it stands on gameday.
Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on Miami, as the line has pretty much stayed the same despite heavy public betting in favor of Pittsburgh.
The Dolphins offer notable “bet against the public” value as Miami is only receiving 33% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
At Circa, Miami is receiving 31% of spread bets but 85% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split and further evidence of the pros out in Vegas backing the road dog plus the points.
The Dolphins match several betting systems, as primetime dogs are 25-20 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 49-40 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season. Conference dogs who failed to make the playoffs the previous season are 62-51 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season.
The Dolphins have additional correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (42.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 14-9 ATS (61%) with a 15% ROI as a dog getting 3-points or more in his career.
On the flip side, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 66-37 ATS (64%) as a dog but only 94-102 ATS (48%) as a favorite in his career. He is 75-89 ATS (46%) as a favorite of 3-points or more.
Land Clark, the lead referee, is 54% ATS to the road team historically.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the Dolphins would be wise to shop around and wait for a possible hook to appear between now and kickoff, as Pittsburgh is being juiced up -3 (-115 or -120).
In terms of the total, the line has remained relatively stagnant at 42.5, reaching as high as 43.5 and as low as 41.5 throughout the week. A few books have started to fall from 42.5 to 42 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 49% of bets and 61% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 24% of bets and 73% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the over.
However, one trend to keep in mind is the fact that primetime unders are 27-21 (56%) with a 7% ROI this season and 128-92 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
The forecast calls for chilly 20-degree temperatures with mostly clear skies and 8-10 MPH winds at Acrisure Stadium.
The Steelers will be without star linebacker T.J. Watt, who will miss the game with a lung injury. Starting RB Jaylen Warren is also questionable with an illness.
