Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 14 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 41.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Eagles (8-4) have dropped two games in a row and just fell to the Bears 24-15, losing outright as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Chargers (8-4) have won four of their last five and just brushed aside the Raiders 31-14, covering as 9.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3-point road favorite.
The public expects the defending champions to get back on track and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the short chalk with Philadelphia.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Eagles fall from -3 to -2.5. In addition, the Chargers are being juiced up +2.5 (-115) and some books have even fallen to +2 on gameday.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Los Angeles plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side.
At Circa, the Chargers are only receiving 28% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating smart money in their favor from the wiseguys in Vegas.
Los Angeles has notable “bet against the public” value as the Chargers are only receiving roughly one-quarter of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
Primetime dogs are 22-20 ATS (52%) this season and 163-146 ATS (53%) with a 1.5% ROI since 2020. Monday Night Football dogs are 54-43 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2020.
Justin Herbert is 15-12 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI as a dog in his career, including 5-2 ATS (71%) with a 36% ROI as a non-conference dog. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is just 12-17 ATS (41%) as a road favorite in his career.
Los Angeles has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
Those looking to follow the sharp contrarian Chargers move but looking to gain some added protection in the event of a close game could also entertain Los Angeles in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Chargers up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy data-driven pros can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a steady dose of under action drop the line from as high as 44.5 to 41.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 25% of bets and 49% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 41% of bets and 52% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 26-19 (58%) with a 10% ROI this season and 127-90 (59%) with a 12% ROI since 2022.
The Eagles will be without two key starters, as DL Jalen Carter (shoulder) and OT Lane Johnson (foot) will both miss tonight’s game due to injury. Meanwhile, Chargers QB Justin Herbert is expected to start after getting surgery on his non-throwing left hand.
