Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 6 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 40.5) at New York Giants
The Eagles (4-1) just fell to the Broncos 21-17 last week, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-4) just lost to the Saints 26-14, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is too low and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with Philadelphia.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Eagles remain stagnant at -7.5. In addition, most books across the market are juicing up Giants +7.5 (-115) and a few others have even briefly touched Giants +7 throughout the week.
Normally, if a team is getting over 75% of tickets you would expect to see the line rise in their favor, in this case up from -7.5 to -8 or -8.5. The fact that the line has stayed right where it’s at and even briefly dipped down to -7 signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement in favor of the Giants plus the hook (+7.5).
New York has notable “bet against the public” value as the Giants are only receiving 23% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
At Circa, New York is only receiving 22% of spread bets but a whopping 79% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas backing the home dog plus the points.
Primetime dogs, like the Giants here, are 11-5 ATS (69%) this season and 152-131 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dog is getting 6.5-points or more, they improve to 58-39 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2020.
New York has additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 316-273 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2019.
The Giants also have correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game (40.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Jalen Hurts is just 5-11 ATS (31%) as a favorite of 7-points or more in his regular season career, including just 1-9 ATS in his last ten.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen steady and consistent line movement in favor of the under, dropping the number from as high as 43.5 to 40.5.
This movement is notable because the public is playing the over (73% of bets at DraftKings and 65% of bets at Circa), yet the total fell.
Outdoor divisional unders are 11-8 (58%) this season and 310-260 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2017. When total drops at least a full point in a divisional game, the under is 8-6 (57%) this season and 95-76 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2022.
Primetime unders are 9-9 (50%) this season but 199-145 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020. When the total falls at least a full point in a primetime game, the under is 95-62 (61%) with a 16% ROI since 2019.
The forecast calls for low 50s with clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds at MetLife Stadium.