Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 11 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the New York Jets and New England Patriots. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13, 43.5)
The Jets (2-7) have won two straight and just took down the Browns 27-20, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (8-2) have won seven in a row and just upset the Buccaneers 28-23, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New England listed as a 10.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought the opener was a bit short and they got down hard on the New England early, steaming the Patriots up from -10.5 to -12.5 and now -13 on gameday,
However, now that the line has been adjusted so drastically in favor of the Patriots, bettors looking to back New England must ask themselves: has the line moved too much and is the value now gone?
At DraftKings, the Jets are receiving 42% of spread bets and 48% of spread dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 52% of spread bets but a whopping 79% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the double-digit road dog.
Primetime dogs are 18-13 (58%) with a 10% ROI this season and 159-139 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Big primetime dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 7-3 ATS (70%) with a 33% ROI this season and 60-41 ATS (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2020. Primetime dogs getting 12-points or more, although somewhat rare, are 8-3 ATS (73%) with a 37% ROI since 2020.
Inflated dogs getting at least 2-points or more off the opening number are 36-32 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI this season. If the inflated dog is getting 7-points or more, they improve to 14-10 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI this season.
The Jets have additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 322-282 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2019. Road divisional dogs are 198-162 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2019.
New York also has correlative betting value as a big double-digit dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer expected points making it harder for the big favorite to cover the number.
In terms of the total, we saw it open as high as 46.5 and get bet down to 43.5 or even 43 at some shops.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 50% of bets but 63% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving only 25% of bets but a hefty 78% of dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 19-15 (56%) with a 7% ROI this season and 209-151 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2019. Outdoor divisional unders are 16-13 (55%) with a 6% ROI this season and 315-265 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2017.
Both teams rank toward the slower end in terms of pace of play, with the Patriots ranking 21st and the Jets 22nd.
The forecast calls for mid 30s with clear skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro.
